Afghan King Mohammad Zahir Shah (right), with grandson
Mostapha Zaher, has lived in Rome since his ouster in 1973.
Posted on 09/25/2001 7:59:27 AM PDT by Kenyon
Young men flee military service against allies
| FROM CATHERINE PHILP IN QUETTA, PAKISTAN |
| WHEN two student friends turned up in Mohammad’s mountain village last week with shaven heads and no possessions, he knew it was time to get out of Afghanistan. His friends, minority Tajiks like him, had fled from Kabul after Taleban soldiers came to the university and tried to force them into military service against an American attack. Refugees such as Mohammad arriving in Pakistan are bringing reports of Taleban attempts to conscript young men from persecuted minorities to fight in a “holy war”. The Taleban defence minister claimed yesterday to have mobilised an additional 300,000 troops, most of them volunteers ready to die defending the regime. Reports from Afghanistan, however, paint a picture of a regime beginning to crumble as its commmanders desert. Thousands of Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and other minorities are fleeing their homes in central Afghanistan as Taleban fighters visit their villages to round up conscripts. “Every family is being asked to hand over one young man,” Mohammad said. “I left before they could come for me.” Nobody here believes the Taleban’s estimate of their fighting force. Analysts say that before the present crisis, their army numbered fewer than 50,000. Even with conscription, it could not have swelled above 70,000, far less if reports of large-scale defections are true. Refugees from Herat say that only a quarter of Taleban officials and fighters remain. Refugees passing through the Taleban stronghold of Kandahar have found it empty as commanders flee to the hills with their families. The remaining Taleban are going to desperate measures to convince people that they are still in charge. Shopkeepers have been forced to remain open to project an aura of normality. Anti-Taleban leaders in Quetta say that internal opposition to the Taleban is growing as the prospect of military strikes increases. One figure the people could rally around is Afghanistan’s exiled King, Mohammed Zahir Shah, who issued a radio appeal last week calling on Afghans to rise up and “rescue themselves”. He has called for the international community to help to restore Afghanistan’s traditional tribal council in place of the Taleban. “Everyone heard it,” Mr Ullah said. “They believe that if Zahir Shah comes, we will be saved.” People are also pinning their hopes on Ismail Khan,the local opposition commander, who controls a patch of Northern Alliance territory south of the city. “People are very excited and optimistic. They believe that if there is an American attack, Ismail Khan will come back and take control of the city.” Emboldened by the prospect of American backing, opposition force have begun a big offensive against the Taleban in northern Afghanistan. Artillery and rocket fire thundered across Balkh Province yesterday as Taleban and Northern Alliance forces fought for a strategic road linking central Afghanistan with Uzbekistan. A further setback to the Taleban’s hold on power came with the withdrawal this weekend of Pakistani diplomats from Kabul. “Without Pakistani support, the Taleban will crumble within days,” Hamid Karzai, the tribal council’s leader in exile, said at his home in Quetta. “Look at all the people, they wouldn’t be running away if they supported the Taleban.” |
It's one thing to get a few dozen or even a few hundred fanatics who will lay their life on the line expecting to lose it. It's very different to get tens of thousands of such.
I doubt Taliban control can be more than superficial, especially in the countryside. True power is probably still held by family and clan leaders. They are probably falling all over themselves trying to get in good with the allies. Each clan would love to take the opportunity to settle scores with their rivals who hang on a little too long with the Taliban.
Afghanis have traditionally not been terribly religious. More attention is given to the sport of war and raiding.
You have to remember that Afghanistan is sort of the ultimate armed society. Every male goes heavily armed all the time. How can a small group like the Taliban really control them? OTOHm, the US doesn't want to control them. We're anxious to give them all sorts of money and neat weapons for switching sides. Expect to see an avalanche of support for the allies.
Well, they need people if they're going to fight. The Taliban apparently lost the hearts and minds of the Afghan people a long time ago, and has been running on the intertia of power ever since. Once they lose power, there's no longer any reason for anyone to support them.
The Republican Guard divisions did stand and fight (and at 73 Easting, one died in place in a rearguard action). It was the regular and conscript divisions which were surrendering en masse. The RG were tough, well-led, battle-hardened troops who were outgunned technologically. It wasn't they who were caught on the infamous highway of death, and most RG actually escaped the anihilation of the Iraqi army.
Agreed, but the pre-war propaganda and rhetoric was that the Republican Guards were the core of a capable army that would put up serious opposition. As you point out, the Guards didn't have the weapons to do that very well, and the rest of the army turned out to be more interested in saving their skins that saving Hussein's fantasies about world domination.
Similarly, I'm sure the Taliban have a core group of fanatics that will fight hard, but they don't have the weapons to do so very effectively, and the rest of the "army" is not very motivated to get killed supporting the Taliban.
Who would want to die for a dead R+B singer?
The Taliban has much less than Iraq had.
The Taliban cannot claim to have 1 million men under arms.
The Taliban does not have diplomatic relations with other countries.
The Taliban is in civil war which is a serious threat to their power. Saddam didn't have any serious internal opposition.
The Taliban has no natural resources like oil.
The Taliban does not have modern weapons.
It was never an official US goal to overthrow the Iraqi government, the Taliban does not have the luxury.
The Taliban's call for a jihad and their people flee to the mountains and other countries.
The Taliban will lose much worst than the Iraqi military.
Then, we should get relatively free run of the countryside in our effort to exterminate Ossama. Cross off another item on the list.
If I'm Saddam Hussein, I don't like the looks of how this thing is shaping up.
What’s up with this? Don't the leaders of the Taleban want to die as martyrs for allah?? No virgins at the great cathouse in the sky?? I guess that idiot tale is just for the morons they train to be mass murderers.
The remaining Taleban are going to desperate measures to convince people that they are still in charge.
Man we are going to slaughter these terrorist scum like the inhuman pigs that they are. That is if we can get these brave muslim warriors to stop running away!
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