There is a poker contest in Las Vegas. The sponsors do not tell me how many players/games are involved, but they assure me that there will be a royal flush dealt in the week of the contest. I go to observe the games on Tuesday. If I stay for a full day, what are the odds that I will see a royal flush?
Do they assure you there will be at least one royal flush dealt, or exactly one royal flush dealt?
Are they gonna be playing during the weekend?