Posted on 09/13/2001 6:56:48 AM PDT by vannrox
John Pomfret Washington Post Service Thursday, September 13, 2001 READ THE ARTICLE... Summary: "...China has signed a memorandum of understanding for economic and technical cooperation with Kabul..." "(reported) "... from Afghanistan and Pakistan..." "...The agreement was reported Tuesday, the same day terrorists hijacked four planes in the United States and drove them into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon..." RVR Comment - Interesting Timing!!!!! "...the most substantial part of a series of contacts that Beijing has had with Afghanistan over the last two years...." "... Of all non-Muslim countries, Beijing now has the best relationship with the isolated regime in Kabul in the world..." "...the contacts have disturbed high-ranking officials from the West and some of China's central Asian neighbors.." ".... said they worried that Beijing was trying to curry favor with Kabul at the same time it made a public show of opposing terrorism which seemed to be supported by Afghanistan..." "... China has helped form the Shanghai Cooperative Organization that joins Russia and three central Asian nations in a loose grouping..." "... China is quietly dealing with the Taleban as part of an effort to convince its officials to close Afghan-based camps that are used to train Muslim "...China has dangled the prospect of providing Afghanistan with much needed help on its infrastructure and economic development.." "....two Chinese telecommunications firms, Huawei Technologies and ZTE, signed contracts to provide limited phone service for Kabul and Kandahar, near where the suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden is supposedly based..." "...Huawei as one Chinese firm that was involved in helping Iraq bolster its air defenses by selling it communications equipment.." "...Chinese engineers have also held negotiations with Taleban officials about renovating an American-built power station, ..." "...political contacts between China and the Taleban government have grown...." "China has got to make a decision and a decisive one on Afghanistan..."China Strengthens Ties With Taleban by Signing Economic Deal
That is true. But the PRC's "public" actions may be very different from its covert actions. A diplomat friend of mine who knows the Chinese well says it is considered axiomatic within the Chinese leadership that it faces inevitable confrontation with the US within the next five to 10 years. I think we are seeing a smiley-faced struggle already well under way between these giants.
My view of Bin Laden's organization is that its ideological rantings are probably a cover for what amounts to a modest-sized mercenary army, for hire by whatever nation-state might want to contract out a "hit" on someone without getting its own fingerprints on the trigger. The great irony may be that the US, as well, has made use of his services, and may have even helped train and fund his mafia in days past.
Clearly, the timing, sophistication and intelligence capabilities demonstrated by the Sep 11 attacks indicated Bin Laden benefitted from some level of state support from somewhere. What other country has enough at stake to effect what amounts to a Pearl Harbor attack on the US? The M.O. fits well with classic Chinese war-making doctrine.
The analogy to Pearl Harbor is intriguing, since that war was started, in part, over the US oil embargo of Japan. The US may be seen currently as effecting somewhat similar strangulation effect on China using oil (and technology). It could be done by tacitly encouraging or supporting uneconomically high oil prices for a sutained period. China is heavily dependent on oil imports, pecentage-wide even moreso than the US if it is to realize its growth and industrialization hopes, and less able to pay for them.
In an interesting 1994 book titled "Victory: The Reagan Administration's Secret Strategy that Hastened the Collapse of the Soviet Union," author Peter Schweitzer details how he US masterfully employed a low-oil-price policy for many years to effectively bankrupt the Ruskies, whose power was heavily financed through oil exports. Could a reverse strategy be ineffect with China?
Of course such strategies can be very expensive to friend, as well as foe, the bet may be that we and our friends have deeper pockets and can weather such economic warfare better than the other guy. Hence, faced with such a strangulation strategy, the PRC may be getting desperate.
You will note that in addition to the Kabul deal announced by the PRC this week, PRC leaders have also renewed efforts to forge an ecominc link with Kazakstan, including construction of a long oil pipeline from that country to China. It is also interesting that BP, for reasons not really made clear, unexpectedly pulled otu of a major CHinese gas pipeline development last week.
My two bits worth. Rebuttle welcome.
Can you send me an freepmail to show me how to do that? I would greatly appreciate it.
I agree with you completely. I have heard more than one person say that the precision and targets chosen seem to indicate state support. Frankly, I doubt Iraq has the capability to pull this off.
I think this will happen naturally. Israel and the United States are united and inseparable. Russia, for all it's posturing and bellowing, still aspires to be a European power. They recognize that the greatest threat to their security and integrity is Chinese nationalism on their western front. India's antipathy toward Pakistan (Islam's only known nuclear power) will push it toward the United States and Israel. It's ties with Russia remain after the two states' alliance during the Cold War.
And yes, it is a good idea.
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