Posted on 09/10/2001 10:05:15 AM PDT by JAWs
THE REGION: Arafatian victories
| By Barry Rubin | September, 09 2001 |
(September 9) The beginning of wisdom today is to know that no negotiated "solution" is possible for a very long time. It seems as if much of the world has not yet caught on to this rather obvious point yet.
But, after all, our anticipations have fallen from the expectation of a comprehensive, conflict-ending deal a year ago, then down to some interim arrangement, and then down to a real cease-fire. Now it would seem a miracle if the highest-level, most intense efforts could even succeed in producing a cease-fire in one town for a single week.
The issue is not, then, how to make a peace right now, but how to win the war of attrition that has been forced onto Israel.
And the way to win a war of attrition, unglamorous and unsatisfactory as that may be, is to continue fighting it. It is the willingness and ability to go on - and not any one offensive stroke or brilliant campaign - that will bring success. Thus, the argument that the army should be allowed to "win" by one quick advance is not realistic.
Still, through the pain of each terror attack and the disgust with the new 21st century brand of "anti-racism" anti-Semitism, no one should lose sight of this fact: The basic truth remains that no matter what happens or is said anywhere else in the world, and no matter how many terrorist attacks succeed or fail, and no matter how many articles are written or demonstrations held, the Palestinians cannot get anything without Israel's agreement.
Arafat's strategy has failed, and failed in the most costly way for the Palestinian side (though that does not diminish Israel's own costs and casualties): Israel is not going to crumble.
There isn't going to be any real international intervention.
Rhetoric aside, there also isn't going to be any real Arab help that does anything for the Palestinians (aside from minimal - and inadequate - financial support).
Equally, there isn't going to be any US pressure on Israel for unilateral concessions, even ones made in order to obtain a cease-fire.
In terms of Israeli policy, force cannot provide a "solution," partly because nothing can provide a solution. But a combination of toughness and restraint can demonstrate that Israel isn't giving up, thus encouraging the Palestinians to decide that further violence is useless.
Equally, such actions warn the Palestinians against escalation or even intensifying the level of terror, since Israel would hit them far harder in those circumstances.
Whatever criticisms can be made regarding the precise details and timing of the current government's policies, its basic approach is the best one possible under the extraordinarily unpleasant present circumstances.
At the same time, many Palestinians - including those who appear on television justifying Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's policies - know that he has been leading them to disaster. They can continue fighting for six to 18 months more, or whatever amount of time it requires for exhaustion to set in and for Arafat to change his mind, presuming his health holds up that long.
How would he justify this shift if it were to come?
Obviously, he would have to claim victory, as he has done so many times before, following disasters of his own making.
Possibly he can hope for some major regional crisis to take the heat off of him, as happened with Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
Perhaps he could claim that a decision to end the violence had prevented Prime Minister Ariel Sharon from implementing some devilish plan to destroy the PA and drive out the Palestinians.
Probably he would want to return to negotiations based on the maximal Israeli concessions implied at Camp David, the Clinton plan, and the Taba talks, while still preserving all the Palestinian demands without concessions.
He could also hope that a government would come to power in Israel more in line with the positions of Yossi Beilin and others who are eager to offer more in a (vain) attempt to persuade him to be friends.
And he could hope that renewed negotiations would bring more interim withdrawals and other Israeli concessions for which he would have to give nothing substantial in exchange.
Yet no matter how this episode ends, the Palestinians have irretrievably lost (though in the Middle East, forever means 5-10 years) many of the advantages offered by the now-dead peace process of the 1990s.
For example, there will not again be several billion dollars in international aid for the PA, all of which has now been squandered. The chances of finding investors is laughable. The prospects for Palestinians to earn money by working in Israel are far lower than in the past.
There will be no money to rebuild institutions wrecked in the fighting.
And most important of all, Israel is going to be far more suspicious and less compromising than it was in the year 2000.
More than 2000 years ago, King Phyrrus of Epirus won "victories" over Rome that were so costly as to constitute disastrous defeats that led to his state's collapse. But since this episode is long forgotten, references to "Phyrric" victories are outmoded.
Perhaps in centuries to come, people will speak not of Phyrric victories, but of Arafatian ones.
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