India Needs to Eliminate Anxiety about China

According to the latest estimation of Western military experts, India has now possessed 30-60 nuclear weapons and the barium raw material for the production of over 70 nuclear bombs, by 2005, India will be able to further produce more than 100 nuclear bombs. According to the military of Pakistan, India now has a total of 200 nuclear missiles.

For a long time, some top Indian personages, while formulating diplomatic and defense policies, have invariably been influenced by what Indian media called "anxiety about China" factor. Such view and psyche have an audience in India's think-tank and many media.

Indian important media, Daily Pioneer, disclosed on August 25 that in early October, Indian high-ranking generals and nuclear weapon experts will gather at an artillery school to conduct special discussion on how to equip armed forces with nuclear weapons.

By then, participating scientists will become the leading characters of the gathering, scientists coming from the Baba Atomic Energy Research Center, the National Defense Research and Development Organization as well as the Indian Power Company will draw the following conclusion on "major" issues: what the carrying capacity of India's "AGNI" series missiles and "AGNI's" matching warheads should Be like.

This will be another concrete step by India in its march toward the practical use of nuclear weapons since its nuclear tests carried out in May 1998, it also shows that India's nuclear weapon research will very soon march into the actual combat stage.

In order to further check and verify the reliability of this news, this reporter specially inquired an executive deputy editor-in-chief of Daily Pioneer. He said to the reporter that the source of news was absolutely reliable. The Daily Pioneer always has its own unique information channels, otherwise, how can it often get its exclusive and authoritative news? But regarding what the channels are, he said frankly that he found it unsuitable to tell, and he hoped the reporter would understand his difficulties. He emphasized that the news was absolutely reliable and it would very soon be proved by their report.

Experts have noted that if one considers the matter in association with the series of moves taken by the Indian government after nuclear tests, especially the related attitude it has clearly stated since the beginning of this year, one will find it easy to see that the time is already ripe for India to install nuclear warheads on its missiles.

A recent American CIA report says that India is still engaged in the development of nuclear weapon items, and after receipts of foreign equipment, it will develop even more sophisticated nuclear weapons.

Since the nuclear tests it carried out in 1998, India, in an effort to turn its nuclear weapons into a powerful deterrent force, has openly conducted many missile tests, the most noteworthy one was success in the two trial launches of the "AGNI" II medium-range ballistic missiles (with a firing range of 2,000-2,500 km).

In addition, according to news from Indian media, the work of minimizing Indian nuclear bombs is being carried out in a conventional way. By the end of this May, Singh, Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs and National Defense, in his report to the parliament, said that after repeated trial launches, the Indian government had formally approved the launch of the "AGNI" plan for the development of long-range missile system. He added that his country had begun the "limited" production of "AGNI"-II missiles which were expected to be used to equip the armed forces between 2001-2002.

Indian media reported the first group of 25 "AGNI"-II missiles possibly used to equip the armed forces could cover the whole territory of Pakistan and most regions of China including Shanghai and Guangzhou.

Meanwhile, the Indian Ministry of National Defense, in this year's "National Defense Annual Report", also stressed that in order to establish a reliable, minimal nuclear deterrent system, India must develop a nuclear weapon system that will integrate the land, naval and air forces.

Judged from the current situation, the flying range and quantity of Indian air force's fighters capable of carrying nuclear weapons are limited, Indian navy's Sagarika submarine-launched cruise missiles and nuclear submarines capable of carrying nuclear warheads are under secret research and manufacture, therefore the first missiles under "the nuclear cloak" will undoubtedly be the "AGNI"-II missiles.

Despite their different versions, India's possession of the 6th largest nuclear arsenal in the world is universally acknowledged. Recently, Singh declared that his government would equip the armed forces with "the most advanced weapons". The "most advanced weapons" he mentioned undoubtedly are nuclear warheads.

In addition, a few days ago, India again refused to sign the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty). Indian Foreign and State Affairs Minister Abdul said that India would not sign the treaty under the present circumstance.

It is the general view of analysts that India's current acceleration of its pace of using nuclear power to equip its armed forces is inseparable from the profound background of US change of its South Asian strategy.

Since Bush took office, the United States, in its bid to peddle its NMD, has further intensified its force in Asia and got increasingly nearer to India. As India feels it now carries a greater influence, so it has fuller confidence.

Currently, India is one of the few countries in support of the NMD program of the United States, so the Americans naturally do not want to offend India, therefore they actually give tacit consent to India's practice of expanding its nuclear arsenal and developing a "reliable and minimal nuclear deterrent force".

It is noteworthy that the military of India is also constantly engaged in the drill of its actual combat capacity to win a nuclear war. Not long ago, India held a massive military exercise coded "Complete Victory". One of the key issues is how to cope with a nuclear war.

During the exercise, nuclear weapons-loaded "enemy planes" rushed at India. Indian military fighters made a scramble to intercept them, but still a few "enemy" fighters succeeded in breaking through India's military defense line, and hit some targets of the Indian troops. The nuclear bombs dropped by "enemy planes" exploded on the position of Indian force and thus contaminated foodstuff and water source. At the time, an Indian commander gave the order: the Indian fighters must pass through the radiation pollution area, and the pilots should also come back safe and sound, while the Army must try to foil the "enemy's" plot and timely move the ground force to remove pollution. In the process of exercise, a commander of a military area in central India indicated to the external world that although it was not quite possible for various countries to use nuclear weapons in future war, undoubtedly, however, there would still be a nuclear background.

India's overbearing behaviors have aroused Pakistan's high vigilance, many people are worried that the situation of dialogs conducted between India and Pakistan has not come about easily, these moves of India would likely easily forfeit the efforts made to improve relations between the two countries.

Currently, both Indian Prime Minister A.B Vajapee and the minister Singh have formally accepted invitation to visit Pakistan, a few days later, Vajapee and Pakistani leader Musharraf will meet in the United States.

Under such circumstance, India's excessive pursuit of one-sided nuclear superiority will undoubtedly irritate other neighbors including Pakistan, and will cause negative influence on the "image of peace" India has consistently tried to create.

For a long time, some top Indian personages, while formulating diplomatic and defense policies, have invariably been influenced by what Indian media called "anxiety about China" factor.

India's "Defense Annual Report" asserted that currently, every large Indian city is placed within the firing range of Chinese missiles, in the balance of nuclear power between China and India, China has a greater share of superiority, etc. to hint the necessity for India to develop long-range nuclear weapons.

Such view and psyche have an audience in India's think-tank and many media. It is reported that an expert with the Indian South Asia Research Institute recently indicated that currently, India's nuclear weapon development is still in its initial stage and it is estimated that for a fairly long period of time to come, it is totally impossible to put India on a par with China.

But objectively speaking, China's current strategic superiority over India would not last long, with the further improvement and deployment of India's "AGNI"-II missiles, and China would gradually lose its favorable natural defense condition-Whether the towering Himalayas or the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where the weather is extremely bad will lose their original dignity before India's missiles.

Objectively speaking, the deliberate instigation made by some Western countries is also an important reason for the difficulty to remove the "anxiety about China" in India. It's because a certain US newspaper rumored and wantonly slandered about China exporting missiles to Pakistan that has created very bad influence in India. The result of a poll conducted by Indian media at that time shows nearly 85 percent of those investigated indicated that India should actively seek to join the United States' NMD program, so as to "guard against China".

Over the past two years, the Indian government has begun to see fairly big change in its China policy formulated out of all-directional strategic consideration.

Since the beginning of this year, Indian President K.R. Narayanan and Indian Prime Minister Vajapee have, on open occasions, repeatedly stressed their intention to establish friendly, cooperative, neighborly and mutually beneficial diplomatic relations with China. George Fernandes, the general representative of anti-China force in Indian political circle and former defense minister, had stepped down for some time, it is unlikely for him to stage a comeback in the near future.

On this basis, Western media expressed the view that without the obstruction by Fernandes and his like, India would improve its relations with China at a faster pace. Judged from the tendency featuring the steady increase in the top-level exchanges between the two countries and the rapid increase in the bilateral trade volume, such analysis is not without reason.

But it is beyond all doubts that whether or not China-Indian relations can finally enter the track of smooth development depends on whether or not certain Indian people can have a correct mindset in handling India's relations with China.

Looks like forwarning of major arms race between China and India. Note the strange statement that the slanderous US newspaper (Washington Times?) that reported on Chinese nuclear proliferation to Pakistan is the reason 85% of Indians think they need NMD system. The implication is that, had the US article not been written, Indians would be happy living in the shadow of a Chinese nuclear threat. What a curious twist of logic. Between US NMD system and Indian build up, it looks like China is laying in justification for major nuclear program of its own.

Yes, it does look like that, doesn't it? However, what's interesting is the Chinese description of India's military exercise.. it seems so obvious that India's nuclear strategy is concerned more with preventing nuclear attack on India and cleaning up "pollution" caused by a nuclear bomb dropped on India. It is not offensive, if the Chinese People Daily's own description is to believed. So what are they so worried about?

Here's the excerpt.. let me know if you interpret it differently.

Ratheon, Boeing, Northrop, etc are all licking their chops for a shot at all the markets you listed.

Btw, I haven't seen any concrete numbers on this - but it does look like Israeli arms exports to China have dropped off (post no-Phalcon) and those to India have really picked up steam (including Phalcons).

Here's the only truly reliable statement in the article:"But it is beyond all doubts that whether or not China-Indian relations can finally enter the track of smooth development depends on whether or not certain Indian people can have a correct mindset in handling India's relations with China."

Unless India sees things PRC's way, the two will not get along well. Too many in America seem to have the "correct mindset."

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