Posted on 09/09/2001 4:24:21 PM PDT by deport
Education/discussion only.....Would-be senators counting their cash
In race for Gramm's seat, candidates may need $20 million to win
09/09/2001
By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News
AUSTIN – The race to replace Sen. Phil Gramm could cost a candidate more than $20 million. At least nine politicians are pining for the job, and some have an edge in the fund-raising sweepstakes.
The ability to collect what Mr. Gramm once called a campaigner's best friend – ready money – has emerged as a key calculation among a cluster of big-name Republicans and Democrats.
Several congressmen have expressed interest in the seat, and they can transfer any past political cash on hand into a Senate contest. But state and local candidates looking to run, such as Attorney General John Cornyn and Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, cannot easily do that, meaning they effectively must start raising money from scratch.
Others have ways to get around the restrictions by spending their own money. Land Commissioner David Dewhurst, a possible Senate contender, can dip into a personal fortune he built as a businessman – an early advantage, but no guarantee of victory, analysts said.
"It's better than people who don't have that money, but it doesn't mean you can buy the seat," said Larry Makinson, a senior fellow at the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan Washington group that tracks contributions. "The money that wins the most in elections is other people's money, not your own."
Mr. Gramm's announcement Tuesday that he will not seek re-election set off a political chain-reaction on both sides of the ticket.
Efforts by Republicans to unify behind a single candidate and head off a bruising and expensive primary fight appear to have failed. Mr. Gramm said he intends to serve out his term rather than quit early and allow Gov. Rick Perry to appoint a replacement with the imprimatur of the party and guarantee of donations from a cadre of blue-chip GOP loyalists.
"Once you have the machine, you have $10 million," said Royal Masset, a Republican political consultant in Austin. "And none of these guys really have the machine."
Unlike state law, which allows unlimited contributions, federal law restricts donations in congressional races to $1,000 from individuals and $5,000 from committees.
Because each contributor is limited to giving $1,000, the most influential donors are those who can bundle cash from many givers.
In Texas, the core of a Republican money machine is the Bush Pioneers, more than 130 wealthy supporters of George W. Bush who committed to raise at least $100,000 apiece in his presidential race.
"The real power doesn't go to the people who sign the checks," Mr. Makinson said. "It's who corrals the checks."
Bush Pioneers include Dallas businessmen Sam and Charles Wyly, Tom Hicks and Louis Beecherl; Enron chief Kenneth Lay of Houston; and San Antonio lobbyist Tom Loeffler.
On the Democratic side, the key to a candidate's fortunes includes a number of successful Texas trial lawyers, such as Fred Baron of Dallas, John Eddie Williams of Houston, Walter Umphrey of Beaumont and Harold Nix of Daingerfield.
"The Democratic side is where the money becomes much more critical because their ability to tap into sources around the country is more limited," said Austin political consultant Jeff Montgomery. "Unless you have a star like Hillary Clinton, it's a lot more difficult for Democrats to raise money than the Republicans."
Draining the pool
A heavily contested primary would leave the candidates on each side scrambling for cash from the same sources, draining a finite pool of campaign money.
GOP operatives say Mr. Cornyn is expected to announce Wednesday he that will run. Other Republicans considering it are Mr. Dewhurst, Railroad Commissioner Tony Garza and Reps. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio and Joe Barton of Ennis.
Among Democrats, former Attorney General Dan Morales has served notice he will enter the race, and others mulling the contest are Mr. Kirk and Rep. Ken Bentsen of Houston. Austin lawyer Ed Cunningham already announced his candidacy.
For House members, money in their campaign treasuries meets the federal restrictions and can be used for a Senate race.
In Federal Election Commission filings, Mr. Barton had $899,000 on hand as of July 1. Mr. Bonilla had $768,000, and Mr. Bentsen had $208,000.
For Mr. Cornyn, Mr. Dewhurst and Mr. Garza, money in their campaign accounts cannot be transferred directly to a Senate race. They could use their list of supporters to solicit new contributions or, finance experts say, go through a process of returning up to $1,000 to contributors and then asking each one to re-send the donation to the Senate race.
A review of their accounts indicates that Mr. Cornyn has the largest number of big-dollar donors capable of giving the maximum of $1,000. Mr. Dewhurst has the fewest:
• Mr. Cornyn has nearly 1,700 donors who have given him at least $1,000 since July 1997 to his attorney general account. If each donor contributed the maximum allowed in the Senate race, it would produce $1.7 million.
• Mr. Garza's donor rolls include nearly 700 contributors who have demonstrated they can give at least $1,000.
• Mr. Dewhurst, who has largely self-financed his campaigns, has about 490 big-dollar donors.
Of the $11.6 million Mr. Dewhurst raised for his 1998 land commission race and so far in his bid for lieutenant governor, nearly $9 million has come from his own pocket.
He has spent at least $2 million for radio and TV ads, initiated before the Senate seat opened, to boost his name identification before next year's lieutenant governor's race.
Not always an advantage
Mr. Masset said the advantage of a candidate's personal wealth sometimes is overblown.
He noted Michael Huffington's losing 1994 Senate race in California in which he spent nearly $30 million of his own money, and Republican Clayton Williams' failed bid for Texas governor in 1990, which cost him $8 million.
"Usually, it's really the best candidate who can raise the most money, not the money that puts a candidate in," said Mr. Masset. "If they make mistakes – whether it's Claytie or Huffington – they'll lose no matter how much they spend. It just makes their ignorance that much better known."
At the same time, four Democrats won Senate elections last year after spending more than $1 million of their own money: Maria Cantell of Washington, Mark Dayton of Minnesota, Herb Kohl of Wisconsin and Jon Corzine of New Jersey. Mr. Corzine, a former Wall Street executive, set a record by spending more than $60 million of his fortune to win.
Mr. Makinson said a lesson of the most recent contests indicates that candidates willing to spend sums approaching $10 million can win.
"If Dewhurst puts in $10 million, he's got a really good chance," he said. "The threshold to win a big state like Texas is very high. Putting in a couple million bucks is not going to guarantee anything, except that he's going to be poorer than he was before he started the campaign."
On the Democratic side, a primary contest among Mr. Kirk, Mr. Bentsen and Dan Morales could divide the loyalties of many traditional givers, strategists said.
Mr. Morales won two terms as attorney general. And Mr. Kirk's donor list includes top Dallas business leaders, some of whom have backed Republicans in statewide races. Among them are Tom Hicks and Ross Perot Jr.
Researcher Rob Giacobbe contributed to this report.
Education/discussion only.....Candidates diving into changing political current
TEXAS POLITICS
09/09/2001
By SAM ATTLESEY / The Dallas Morning News
AUSTIN – A suddenly open U.S. Senate seat and uncertainty over the shape of legislative and congressional districts has thrown the state's political community into turmoil.
There is fast and furious jockeying by Democrats and Republicans who want to move up the political food chain, and potential candidates are suddenly seeing a once-in-a-lifetime chance to win a statewide office.
Potential candidates are testing the waters openly and behind the scenes, seeking support and possible campaign contributions.
"If you are on the outside, it's not unlike watching peacocks prance around at the zoo. If you are on the inside, it's the time when you find out that some friends are your enemies and that some enemies are your friends," said Austin Democratic consultant Jeff Crosby.
The decision by GOP Sen. Phil Gramm not to seek re-election could have an impact on every statewide race next year.
Here's a look at what might happen as politicians make major decisions to move up or move out.
• Governor:
The Gramm announcement probably won't change the lineup of candidates.
Republican Gov. Rick Perry will almost certainly be the GOP nominee and a favorite to win re-election.
The Democratic lineup includes Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez, the early front-runner, Marble Falls lawyer Marty Akins and Houston lawyer John WorldPeace.
But Mr. Perry is known to want a Hispanic Senate nominee running at the top of the GOP ticket to try to attract some of the predicted large Hispanic vote that Mr. Sanchez's candidacy is expected to generate.
• Lieutenant governor:
This could be the race most affected by Mr. Gramm's decision not to run again.
Land Commissioner David Dewhurst had been the front-runner for the GOP nomination for the post of presiding officer of the Senate, already spending more than $3 million for TV and radio advertising. But he is seriously considering the race for senator, an office he has long coveted.
The other announced GOP candidate, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Greg Abbott, says he intends to stay in the race for lieutenant governor, despite speculation that he might switch to the attorney general's campaign.
Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs has been mentioned as a possible candidate for lieutenant governor.
On the Democratic side, former Comptroller John Sharp and former U.S. Selective Service director Gil Coronado are expected to stay in the lieutenant governor's race.
• Attorney general:
Current GOP Attorney General John Cornyn, who had planned to seek re-election, is expected to announce as early as Wednesday that he will run for the Senate seat.
According to GOP consultants, Mr. Cornyn is the favorite of many of those in the Bush White House, including the president's political guru, Karl Rove.
If Mr. Cornyn abandons the A.G. race, Supreme Court Justice Harriet O'Neill and Railroad Commissioners Tony Garza and Michael Williams have been mentioned as potential candidates for the GOP nomination for the post of the state's chief lawyer.
If Mr. Cornyn is out of the race, analysts believe that gives Austin Mayor Kirk Watson, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for attorney general, a good chance of winning in the general election.
• Comptroller:
Republican Comptroller Carole Keeton Rylander has a history of job jumping, going from one political office to another.
And, despite speculation she still might run for lieutenant governor, she and her aides insist she intends to seek re-election.
So far, she has not announced Republican or Democratic opposition.
• Agriculture Commissioner.
Ms. Combs, the GOP incumbent, had been a strong favorite to win re-election. Her name, however, is frequently mentioned as a potential candidate for lieutenant governor.
• Land Commissioner:
Because of uncertainty about the new shape of his state senatorial district, Democratic state Sen. David Bernsen of Beaumont is expected to soon announce for the office being vacated by Mr. Dewhurst.
On the Republican side, Rep. Kenn George of Dallas and former state Sen. Jerry Patterson of Pasadena have announced for the land office job.
Mr. George, however, might reconsider and run for comptroller if Ms. Rylander decides to seek higher office.
On the day Mr. Gramm stunned the Texas political world and announced he won't run again, Mr. Patterson issued a press release.
"Amidst a firestorm of speculation and potentially the largest game of political musical chairs in recent Texas history," the release stated, "former state senator and current candidate for Texas land commissioner Jerry Patterson today announced his plans for higher office.
"Jerry Patterson is a candidate for Texas land commissioner. Period."
Sam Attlesey is deputy chief of the Austin Bureau of The Dallas Morning News.
Education/discussion only.....His mama would say that Gramm's gift of gab will be missed
TEXAS WATCH
09/09/2001
By CHRISTOPHER LEE / The Dallas Morning News
WASHINGTON – He may not be a W.C. Fields, but retiring Sen. Phil Gramm has always had a way with words.
The Republican's down-home pronouncements on public policy matters, delivered with a dash of humor in his native Georgia accent bent by a Texas twang, have made it hard to forget what the 22-year veteran of Congress says.
Like the time he said, "I did not come to Washington to be loved, and I have not been disappointed."
Or when he acknowledged that sometimes even budget hawks like him engage in pork-barrel spending, saying, "I'm carrying so much pork, I'm beginning to get trichinosis."
The 59-year-old senator, who announced last week that he would retire in January 2003, has a gift of gab that has helped him frame debates on issues and outmaneuver political opponents.
One favorite rhetorical device has been to couch his policy positions as common sense outgrowths of what "my mama" would think about them.
Defending the right to own a handgun, for instance, Mr. Gramm said that "if somebody's going to break into my mama's house, they've got to worry not just about the sheriff or the police chief, but they've got to worry that my mama's got a gun, and she might shoot them."
Another favorite device is to describe how a potential new program would affect everyman Dicky Flatt of Mexia, a hard-working print-shop owner Mr. Gramm met in the 1970s.
Mr. Gramm explained what he called the "Dicky Flatt test" during a 1994 speech before the Daughters of the American Revolution.
"I looked at every program, thought of Dicky Flatt, and asked a simple question," he said. "'Will the benefits to be derived by spending money on this program be worth taking the money away from Dicky Flatt to pay for it?' And let me tell you something: There are not a lot of programs that will stand up to that test."
In later years, critics complained that such references to his "mama" and Dicky Flatt had become hackneyed and shopworn. Even some strategists in his failed 1996 presidential campaign suggested that he drop such rhetoric, but Mr. Gramm would have none of it.
"I'm never going to stop talking about my mama," he said at the time. "I'm never going to stop talking about Dicky Flatt as long as I live. They can give up on that."
Richard Fisher, the 1994 Democratic Senate nominee who lost to Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, said: "Phil mastered the Queen's English – which is what you say at a Dairy Queen.
"If you can't do that, you'll never get elected," said Mr. Fisher, who later served as deputy U.S. trade representative. "Texans are unique people. You can't have your snout up in the clouds. You have to appeal directly to people."
Former Dallas Mayor Steve Bartlett agreed.
"He's the best at the turn of the phrase," Mr. Bartlett said. "It gives him a leg up on political opponents because people can understand what the issue is."
A favorite phrase when dismissing arguments was to say that a rival lawmaker was "dragging that old dead cat across the floor again."
Bills dealing with issues from immigration reform to President Bill Clinton's health care plan "will pass over my cold, dead political body," he often said.
This spring he railed against a bill to reduce the influence of money in politics, by saying, "Our problem is not bad money corrupting good men; our problem is bad men corrupting good money."
Rep. Martin Frost, D-Dallas, said Mr. Gramm found a way of talking in politics that worked for him and stuck with it.
"Remember, he was a member of Congress from a rural district before he went to the Senate," Mr. Frost said. "He may have felt he needed that to get elected in a rural district. And once it became a part of his persona he never got away from it."
Christopher Lee covers Congress and the Texas delegation for The Dallas Morning News
What ever happened to "for the people, by the people?
Oh, yeah, dummy me I forgot.
It's for the people BUY the sheople....
My conclusion that a Bonilla appointment could serve out the remainder of Gramm's term without a special election being called is apparently wrong. According to the Houston paper today, one would have to be called regardless.
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