Posted on 09/08/2001 10:54:14 AM PDT by NativeNewYorker
FAR AWAY from the public gaze, Russia's President
Vladimir Putin has been pondering one fundamental
problem for his country: the disappearance of Russia's
population. A plan, grandly entitled 'Conception of
Demographic Policy of Russia for the Period to 2015',
has been completed by the Russian government in order
to halt the slide in the number of Russians. The
report will land on President Putin's desk in the next
few days. Putin will sign the plan by the end of 2001,
and then it will become a 'handbook for action' for
Russia's executive authorities. FOREIGN REPORT has
been given access to the document. It does not make
comfortable reading for a Russian political leader.
Let's start with an uncomfortable fact. In 2000, the
mortality rate in Russia exceeded the birth rate by
approximately 958,000 persons. Thus, every hour, the
population of Russia declined by about 109 people. The
report submitted to Putin claims that "Russia has
minimum time left to overcome the demographic
disaster". Some optimists insist that the processes of
decline in the birth rate which are being seen in
Russia almost fully correspond to the general European
tendencies, and therefore, supposedly, the situation
is not serious. But it is serious. There is a
'discrepancy'.
The report points out that, peculiar to Russia, the
decline in the birth rate is accompanied by a steady
rise in the mortality rate, something which is not
observed in Western countries.
The birth rate is a strategic matter
Furthermore, the report points out that Russia has a
particular strategic problem with this population
reduction: given the country's vast territorial
expanse, and the fact that large tracts of land are
already under-populated, a further reduction is more
dangerous than in many other countries. If the trend
continues, there may eventually be too few Russians
left to preserve their current territory. The report
reminds Putin that Russia borders China, where the
demographic situation has a directly opposite
character, and where the shortage of territory is most
acutely felt.
The report then quotes the theories of the great
Russian scientist Dmitri Ivanovich Mendeleyev who,
more than a century ago, reckoned that, in order for
the Russian Empire to be able to retain and develop
its existing territory, its population must comprise
no less than 500m people: the current population of
the Russian Federation is less than a third of that
figure.
Moscow centre is expanding
The report also warns President Putin that the central
regions of Russia are dying out the fastest. In
Moscow, however, the population is not declining. This
is not because of a higher birth rate in the capital,
but is a result of high migration from other parts of
Russia, and from the former Soviet Union.
Moscow apart, the story is uniform: in the Vologda,
Novgorod, Pskov, Nizhniy Novgorod, Penza and Samara
regions, as well as in the city of St. Petersburg, the
number of deaths exceeds the number of births by two,
and sometimes even by three, times. Natural population
growth in Russia is recorded only in 15 regions, and
among them are the restless and politically unreliable
North Caucasus republics (primarily Dagestan and
Ingushetiya), as well as Kalmykiya.
It is primarily Russian men who are dying young: the
level of male mortality surpasses the mortality of
women by four times.
According to the predictions of demographers in the
report, by 2050 Russia will be inhabited by fewer than
115m people (compared with 147m now). Moreover, the
largest segment of the population will be old women.
Thus, the decline in the numbers of citizens living in
Russia is only half the problem; the rapid changes in
the age structure of the population is critical.
Already in 1998, for the first time in Russia's
history, the number of people of retirement age
surpassed the number of children and youths; according
to the latest available data, there are now one
million more persons of retirement age than there are
children.
The implications for Russia's pension payment system
are horrific. And this is before the figure for
migration is included; every year since the fall of
communism approximately 100,000 people left Russia,
not including the sizeable Jewish migration to Israel.
The study also points out the military difficulties of
these demographic developments: by 2016, the number of
the male population 17-19 years of age will decline in
Russia from 3.5m people to 2m people, and the pool of
those willing to be conscripted into the military will
be reduced.
How to avoid extinction
Russian demographers have developed a programme to
save the nation from extinction. The aim: to lengthen
lives. How? They propose a campaign against
alcoholism, particularly of vodka. More public health
centres and programmes are needed. Mobile medical
teams should be revived.
Employers should be made responsible for the health of
their workers. A telephone hotline system will be set
up for improving the mental health of citizens, and
for reducing the number of suicides. The government
also proposes to give financial incentives to young
families. Very soon, subsidies to new mothers will be
increased, and sizable loans will be given out for the
purchase of housing.
Our prediction: It will be possible to stop the
depletion of the population in Russia no sooner than
in 2050, even if the measures contained in the current
plan are successfully implemented.
We may have an overall population gain. And city centers may be growing. But take a trip to the small towns of Iowa, or the Texas Panhandle or Kansas. Small towns are disapearing fast all over.
If the US didn't have a large hispanic population growth because of migration and Catholic birth control, I believe our overall population would be stagnant or shrinking as well.
So much for the "population bomb".
Private farming will increase production and create prosperity. Investors will want to create infrastructure to profit from that productivity. Roads, railways, fertilizers, seeds, etc., etc. will be needed and profitable.
Property is the key.
Isolated towns with no intellectual or industrial base are vanishing in the US, yes. But if the land nearby is arable, it is still being farmed, albeit from more distant quarters.
In Russia, leaving the towns represents wholesale abandonment of the land itself.
Typical leftist thinking. Until they abandon this mindset their problems will persist.
Likelyhood is that as Russia becomes a land of old women China will decide to homestead the country.
Or we could send all our old people over there, which would include me, where you could actually live on your SS check. Then we could send all our Mexicans over there to do all the work. After all, opportunity abounds among the ruins and the hardworking Mexicans could become rich.
The interesting part of the story (to me) is that the Chinese can coax crops out of soil the Russians can't.
And I've always thought we could contract out our prison system to the remnants of the old Soviet Gulag. :)
Now there is an export I hadn't considered! :-) While we are at it why don't we inflict them with our media?
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