Unemployment Rate and Job Approval of President

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ^ | 9-7-01 | The Commerce Department, sort of

[GraniteStateConservative]

Here are the unemployment rates in November of election years and election results:

2000: 4.0 (incumbent party won 50.3% of two party pop vote)
1996: 5.4 (54.7%)
1992: 7.4 (46.5%)
1988: 5.3 (53.9%)
1984: 7.2 (59.2%)
1980: 7.5 (44.7%)
1976: 7.8 (48.9%)
1972: 5.3 (61.8%)
1968: 3.4 (49.6%)

[GraniteStateConservative]

This part of the "misery index" doesn't seem so important in winning races. The only thing I see is that if the unemployment rate is no higher than 5.5%, you have a decent shot of winning near 50% of the vote (the average for such cases is 54% of the vote). But it's interesting that Reagan never had an unemployment rate lower than 5.3, and was very popular and in fact the unemployment rate for his Mondale slaying was 2.3 points higher than the 4.9 released today. Also, it's interesting that Bush's 1992 (it's the economy, stupid) rate was only .2 points higher than Reagan's landslide rate.

Does anyone have a feel for what the electorate will want the rate to be in 2004 for them to re-elect Bush?

[Nightstalker]

The relationship is not totally accurate for instance in 1968 the Vietnam War was a major factor. In 1980 the Iranian hostage crisis was a major factor. In 1976 Ford was challenged in his own party. In 1984 the economy was recovering from 10.5% unemployment and record inflation. However umemployment is a big issue.