Midterm Election Incoherences, Misadventures, and Paradoxes

American Greatness ^ | 2 Nov. 2026 | Victor Davis Hanson

[MtnClimber]

The predicted blue wave may never materialize. And even if Democrats retake Congress, history suggests Trump could emerge stronger, not weaker, with the presidency's expansive powers.

2022 vs. 2026

In June 2022, the price of gasoline topped $5 a gallon and stayed around $4 a gallon through October, on the eve of the midterms. It is currently about $4.30.

The inflation rate in 2022 hit a 40-year high of 9.1 percent—and would average 5.1 percent over Joe Biden’s four-year tenure. The 2026 inflation rate is estimated to be about 3.5 percent and, over the first two years of the second Trump administration, will likely average around 3 percent. GDP for the third quarter of 2026 is higher than it was in the same quarter of 2022. The poverty rate is now lower and the annual family income higher than in November 2022.

Yet we are told that gas prices and inflation are at record levels and will doom the Republicans—even though similar economic data did not harm Democrats all that much in the 2022 midterms.

In the 2022 midterms, Democrats picked up a Senate seat, keeping their majority, and lost only nine House seats, barely losing control of the chamber—defying all expectations. The 2022 midterm results were then celebrated by the media as a great achievement—given that Biden was then polling at 42 percent (NPR/PBS), or about where Trump is now at 40 percent (NPR/PBS).

Many pundits, remember, had predicted a red-wave wipeout, given inflation, gas prices, Biden’s increasing debility, and the Afghanistan and Ukraine messes.

People were certainly seething that in 2021 the United States had left tens of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure and weaponry for the terrorist Taliban in Afghanistan, in the most humiliating American retreat in modern memory.

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TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; vdh; victordavishanson

[MtnClimber]

VDH ping

[texas booster]

Ping! Out to the Victor Davis Hanson list

In 2026, the rise of openly Islamist-socialist candidates and the proliferation of venomous antisemitic tropes and ads may have made the midterms, for many voters, less a conventional contest between Democrats and Republicans than a choice between importing Europe’s troubles and preserving normality at home.

Another in-depth look at modern polls and elections, by Prof Hanson.

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[Tell It Right]

Kudos to VDH for reminding us of past midterm election results and that they often didn’t thwart the president anyway.

[thegagline]

[pawpawrick]

VDH is one of the smartest, most eloquent voices in America. I just worry that these midterms may not result the way he posits they may. There is no reconciliation with mad dog democrats out to cause as much pain to Trump and Americans as possible. They have openly bragged about dancing in the street if the president were murdered. They are pathological.

[thegagline]

I agree. I think that the only way this ends is a civil war.

[spintreebob]

Issues are just one of many factors that contribute to winning or losing.

Quality of Candidates makes a difference. Collins here in IL, Paxton in TX are low quality. Tafoya in MN is high quality. (Note quality of candidate has nothing to do with issues. Don’t confuse the two.)

Turnout. Who actually pulls themselves away from the screen and gets out and votes. This is where the Democrats have the edge. They have a ground game that drives voters to the polls. In most places, the Republicans and especially MAGA have no ground game. They can’t get their voters to the polls.

[GOPJ]

Remember your neighbor who happens to be a democrat is NOT the same as a 'rent-a-mob' professionally manipulated paid thug. Also, commies kill their useful idiots first - those who helped them get to power. Why? Because those are the people who will feel 'most betrayed' when they realized they've sold out their country to monsters.