Russia could partially open diesel exports in case of surplus output

S&P Global ^ | 5th of October 2026 | Elza Turner and Kelly Norways

[Mount Athos]

Russia could consider partially opening diesel exports once it returns to a production surplus, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told its Federation Council Oct. 2, describing the market as balanced and sufficiently supplied, local media reported.

Traditionally the world's number-two diesel exporter, Russia started shutting in its diesel production in July following persistent Ukrainian drone attacks on its refining sector, now extended until the end of October. For non-producers, which include traders and refineries with capacities of less than 1 million metric tons/year, the ban will remain in place until the end of January.

The deputy prime minister added that given Russia produces more diesel than it consumes, it is necessary to avoid accumulating more stocks than the country has the capacity to store, which would force refineries to reduce throughput and affect the output of other products.

Novak's comments come a day after Russia's President Vladimir Putin said at the Valday Forum in Moscow that Russia had sufficient diesel but warned the fuel wouldn't make it to international markets because of foreign sanctions.

"We already have enough diesel fuel. But it won't reach global markets because of the bans and sanctions against our oil and petroleum products," Putin was reported to have said at the forum, according to the transcript posted on the Kremlin website.

By the end of August, analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA estimated that almost half of Russia's primary refining capacity was offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes, with persistent and targeted attacks often hitting the same sites repeatedly during the month. On Oct. 1, Putin estimated that Ukrainian strikes had shaved off about 1% of Russia's GDP.

Novak also said Oct. 2 that once the fuel market is balanced, Russia will return to consuming its own gasoline and exporting it to other countries. Russia produces around 10%-15% more gasoline than it consumes, he said, calling the imports a temporary measure.

Gasoline was the first type of fuel export banned by the Kremlin back in April, and the restriction has since been extended through to the end of January 2027. The measure has seen Russia turn to foreign suppliers to import local fuel supply, exacerbating global concerns over international tightness.

He added that Russia will not stop attacks on Ukrainian ships and sensitive sites in exchange for halting Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

The Russian president's comments come amid growing international concerns over rising diesel prices, particularly from the administration of US President Donald Trump, ahead of the country's upcoming midterm elections.

Speaking to local broadcasters Sept. 27, Trump recently called the price spikes "a Russia problem" rather than a consequence of Middle Eastern trade shut-ins, and urged Ukraine to pull back drone attacks targeting the country's refineries.

[Mount Athos]

Typo, actual date of article October 2nd not 5th.