Ukraine Claws Back Land in the Donbas, Thwarting a Russian Push

New York Times ^ | 10/07/2026 | Marc Santora and Josh Holder

[SeekAndFind]

The Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, has repeatedly said that the fall of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine is inevitable and will happen faster than Kyiv thinks.

Recent trends on the battlefield paint a different picture.

A monthslong Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northern part of the Donbas has thwarted Russian efforts to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the region. Russia, Western analysts say, has lost dozens of square miles of territory during the Ukrainian campaign, which Kyiv is calling Operation Vivaldi.

In the southern Donbas, Russia continues to mount furious assaults to break through Ukrainian lines. But Kyiv has reorganized its defense there and has so far kept the Russian military from pressing farther in its efforts to surround the major Donbas cities.

More broadly, Russian gains across Ukraine have slowed markedly in 2026 from their already glacial pace of last year. September was the worst month in net territorial gains for Russia inside Ukraine since June 2023, according to the Finland-based research firm Black Bird Group.

While Western researchers who track the battlefield report varying numbers, they generally agree that Russia has gained only slightly more land than it has lost this year.

That contrasts sharply with the narrative put forward by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which said on Sept. 19 that Russia had captured more than 2,000 square miles. Even ultranationalist Russian military bloggers have pushed back, voicing concern that Russia’s push to envelope the so-called fortress cities of the Donbas is failing.

The Ukrainian gains have come as both sides have tried to find a way to restore movement on a battlefield that had become largely deadlocked because of ubiquitous drones.

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TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Russia; Ukraine
KEYWORDS: clawclaw; donbas; fab3000; foreverwar; geran4; hellomydearfriends; operationduh; war

[SeekAndFind]

The Vivaldi operation, said George Barros, a senior analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, shows that when a military lays the necessary groundwork, mechanized movement remains possible even under dense drone surveillance. Still, it took Ukraine months of preparations to reclaim a tiny fraction of its lost land."

Mapping data courtesy of ISW and AEI's Critical Threats Project.

[SeekAndFind]

[Brian Griffin]

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2026/

[kiryandil]

First, The New York Slimes and Walter Duranty were complicit in The Holodomor.

Now, The New York Slimes is trying to finish the job on The Ukraine nearly 100 years later.

Maybe they'll get another Pulitzer...

[catnipman]

“a battlefield that had become largely deadlocked because of ubiquitous drones.”

21st century version of stalemated WWI-style meat-grinder trench warfare ... the Soviet’s first Vietnam in Afghanistan caused the collapse of the Soviet Union ... now Putin has Russia engaged in yet ANOTHER Vietnam, this time in Ukraine ...

[SeekAndFind]

It’s been almost 5 years since I’ve heard reports of Russia taking over Ukraine in weeks.

Where is Colonel Douglas Macgregor? I’d like to hear more of his predictions.

[kiryandil]

I suppose it’s going to take a few years to rub out Little Z’s Azov Nazis.

Looks like Little Z’s mouth [and impotent drone assault] is getting Kiev’s Dnepr bridges rubbed out...

[PGR88]

They’ll be in Moscow before Christmas!

[SeekAndFind]

RE: I suppose it’s going to take a few years to rub out Little Z’s Azov Nazis.

OK, let’s get back to this thread when Trump leaves office. My feeling is we’ll still be talking about the war and Zelensky ( yep, the Jew who people call the Nazi supporter).

But I do miss Colonel Macgregor. I wanna hear his predictions once again.

[kiryandil]

I guess you never saw the video where the Azov Nazis in Donetsk got Little Z’s “mind right”.

I did. Soros was a Jew, too, and the Nazis got his mind right.

[nickcarraway]

Soros is ethnically Jewish, but not really Jewish. Like Putin is a Christian.

[kiryandil]

But I do miss Colonel Macgregor. I wanna hear his predictions once again.

Sorry. I listen to Alex and Alexander, and The Duran.

Sounds you listen to Deny Davydov, who's a blowhard like MacGregor.

[kiryandil]

Stick to posting articles in Chat. 😉😂😂🤡

[SeekAndFind]

Yep, it’s worth causing the death and maiming of millions and many millions more next year and beyond to try getting rid of these Azovs.

Before Russia’s annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Azov posed essentially no threat to Russia, — not militarily, not politically, not strategically. The group did not even exist until May 2014, and the far‑right networks that later formed Azov were tiny, fragmented, and focused on domestic Ukrainian politics rather than Russia.

But yeah, continue throwing more men to the meat grinder. After all, their miserable lives are worth nothing.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Sounds you listen to Deny Davydov, who’s a blowhard like MacGregor.

Yep, but MacGregor has been predicting an imminent Russian takeover since 2022. I’ve been waiting almost 5 years for this to happen. The Colonel was given a wide platform by the MSM and has not been heard of since.

I don’t know who this Davydov fellow is. Does he predict an imminent Russian takeover too?

[nickcarraway]

Sorry, I won’t let you anti-Americans run free.

[nickcarraway]

Stalin is your hero, not mine.

[nickcarraway]

There were Freepers saying that Russia would take over most of Germany by late spring.

[nickcarraway]

Russian patriots are more comfortable mass killing Russians than any of their enemies.