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Posted on 09/26/2026 12:53:09 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
Over the past two generations, something remarkable has happened across the developed world: People have stopped having children. In the United States today, the average woman is expected to give birth to about 1.6 children over her lifetime—far below the level needed for a population to replace itself, and the lowest figure ever recorded. Sixty years ago, at the end of the baby boom, that number was more than twice as high.
The details differ from country to country, but the direction is the same almost everywhere. French fertility has fallen from nearly three children per woman to fewer than two; Italy’s from about 2.4 to close to one. The most extreme case is South Korea, where fertility has collapsed from six to well below one child per woman. At the same time, people are living much longer—roughly 13 additional years in high-income countries. We are producing fewer children while extending the span of life, a combination bound to make our society older than any in history.
A recent paper by University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and researcher Patrick Norrick stresses that fertility collapse is now a global phenomenon, encompassing nearly every country, with particularly striking declines in low- and middle-income economies. The authors predict that the point at which the world’s population begins to shrink (for the first time in modern history) may arrive in the 2050s, decades earlier than projected by the United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP). Their prognosis is unsettling: We are rapidly entering a demographic state so different from modern experience that its economic and political consequences are extraordinarily difficult to predict. Demographers often refer to this broad shift as the “Second Demographic Transition.” Its causes are widely debated, and how it can be reversed—if at all—remains a mystery.
(Excerpt) Read more at tabletmag.com ...
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It would be interesting to see if such an effect could be detected in other populations suffering genocide (i.e., the Uyghurs in China, Tutsis in Rwanda, etc.) As for Israel, in a world suffering a near-universal malady, the one healthy patient needs to be carefully studied for cures.
That's one problem. Another is the danger that living children face. The Netherlands has approved euthanasia for live children up to 12 years old. If the kids have problems, with the parents' consent then doctors can euthanize them. Brave new world is upon us.
China has been below replacement rate for decades and its population is in absolute decline. India dropped below the replacement TFR in 2019. The absolute population of India will continue growing a while yet before also enters absolute decline.
The article mentions that human population is likely to peak in the 2050's (the UN estimates have been so routinely wrong in the same direction for decades that I think we can dismiss them). My own estimate is a decade earlier. Note that these estimates presume a rosy, peaceful world without significant pandemics, which may not pan out. I believe we will see more reversals of average lifespan in developed countries, a continuing drop in TFR rather than a flatline or rebound, and that demographers are continuing to assume immigration inflows in countries like the US even though their own data shows those pipelines drying up from host countries.
This should absolutely thrill the Lefties....except when they’ll have to start doing some physical labor.
Look at all of the WELFARE babies around the world.
Wherever someone else is paying the bills for basic stuff, lots of babies.
Ultra Orthodox, Mooselimb, and Amish separatist groups come to mind.
For folks that have to pay their own bills for a family, like Food, Housing, and Healthcare, it’s a very tough row to hoe.
There are at least three phenomenon at work:
1.) The purposeful destruction by the Left of important institutions such as marriage, parenthood, religious faith, etc.
2.) The purposeful brainwashing by the Left of children in our society into believing that having children is harmful to the environment.
3.) The self-worshipping hedonism of the majority of adults.
Where is it written that populations need to continuously increase? We always hear about the “demographic challenges” in advanced first world societies like Japan, for example. For all of the criticism Japan gets for having a very restrictive immigration policy, they are actually ahead of the curve. The same people criticizing Japan, claiming that they have a “population crisis” are the same ones telling us that AI is going to take millions of jobs in the near future. If that is the case, then why is mass immigration necessary into any country? It will result in more jobless people who will need to be supported, not to mention that unrest that will occur. Japan gets it. Unfortunately, Europe and the US don’t seem to get it, and will continue to import the culturally incompatible third world hordes that will completely destroy any vestige of the cultural history of the Western nations they infiltrate. We should endeavor to have a decreasing population. We can start with mass deportations. The idea that it will be “cataclysmic” and the nation will “collapse” is completely overblown. With automation and overall technological advances, we simply do not need an ever-increasing population.
The earth has enough people. We don’t need more impoverished Africans (the fastest growing lot), Muslims, Chinese, Indians or Brazilians. We need to stop subsidizing trade with these countries - thank you DJT.
I am not worried about having enough workers to support the retirement ponzi scehemes. We will find new ways to ensure older adults do not live in poverty.
Because Uber-Capitalism requires more and more consumers, or else the system collapses.
I need my Social Security paycheck. It's the only thing I care about.
I'll vote for a Democrat if I have to.
(I'm being sarcastic, by the way)
Psalm 127:3
Behold, children are a heritage from the Lord, the fruit of the womb a reward
“The future belongs to those who show up”. -Mark Steyn
There is a strong, globally documented negative correlation between the affluence of a country and its birthrate. Economists and demographers refer to this phenomenon as the demographic-economic paradox. As a country’s GDP per capita increases, its total fertility rate (TFR) consistently declines.
Secular Jews in Israel have well-above replacement level fertility.
Social Security.
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