Far-right AfD wins key German state election but may fail to secure majority

The Guardian ^ | 09/04/2026 | Kate Connolly

[Az Joe]

Exit poll shows Alternative für Deutschland on 44.4% of vote in Saxony-Anhalt after huge turnout, with votes still being counted

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TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Germany; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: afd; election; germany

[Az Joe]

The populist far-right, anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland has emerged as the winner in a crucial state election in Germany, exit polls have projected, securing a historic result and more than doubling its support, and appearing to be on the brink of becoming the first far-right party to gain power at state level since the second world war.

Initial exit polls showed the party to have secured 44.4% of the vote, ahead of predictions and decisively ahead of the Christian Democrats (CDU) of the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, in a contest that was being followed across the world. However, it still remains unclear as to how and whether it will be able to form a government, having ruled out entering a coalition, and being refused any form of cooperation by the mainstream parties.

The CDU was trailing massively on around 18.4% and the far-left Die Linke was third with 9.3%, with the Social Democrats on 8.4% and the Greens on 8.7% by around early evening. The smaller BSW reached the 5% hurdle needed to re-enter parliament, against expectations.

[PAR35]

So a CDU/Communist/Socialist coalition has roughly 50%. Although if AfD can work a deal with the socialist but anti-immigrant BSW, they may be able to top 50%.

[JSM_Liberty]

AfD have been claiming that they will not go into coalition, but they may change their mind.

[aspasia]

They won’t let them take charge. The same happened in The Netherlands with Wilders.

[zeestephen]

It is a German state government, not a national government.

As I recall, it is also one of the smaller states.

Good news?

Yes.

Politically Consequential news?

Barely.

[FrankRizzo890]

The leftists have had years to plan for this. They will have “a firewall” in place to make sure that Afd can’t accomplish anything, and then when the next election comes around they’ll run on the fact that Afd hasn’t done anything they said they would.

[aquila48]

The Guardian has its fingers crossed!

[Az Joe]

No, it’s huge news and a major shift in German politics. WTF’s matter with you?

[ScaniaBoy]

Some news from the actual vote count(21:12 CET):

1) AfD has so far won all (41) but three of the constituencies. Die Linke - far left has won the other three.

2) The small left-nationalist party BSW has just about bounced above the 5% limit.

3) This changes the expected number of mandates (42 needed for majority in the local parliament):

AfD 39, BSW 4, CDU + SPD + Greens 32, Linke 8

This makes it possible for AfD to form a government with BSW = 43, but even with the far left (Die Linke) the other three parties cannot form a majority. Only with the help of BSW can AfD be kept out of the government. CDU has a “wall” to rule both with AfD and Die Linke.

It looks like a long period of interregnum and negotiations.

How will this affect the national German politics? Merz is severely wounded (and in the latest national polls AfD is the largest party).

And how will this affect the EU? Remember that Le Pen is leading in the opinion polls in France. How will the “internationalists” and EU-federalists handle the situation if the two largest countries in the EU are governed by nationalists?

I know it is a long way to reach that, but after this result it looks much more likely than it did yesterday!

:-)

[ScaniaBoy]

Sorry, I was a bit unclear. There are 44 constituencies in Sachsen-Anhalt. AfD has won 41 and Die Linke 3.

[Az Joe]

AfD would have to throw a minor party some kind of bone maybe, but in any event it’s still a major move in the right direction regardless.