Trump-Backed Darline Graham’s Chances of Losing to Ralph Norman—Final Odds

Newsweak ^ | Aug 24, 2026 | Andrew Stanton

[Baladas]

South Carolina Republicans are set to choose between Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman in the special runoff on Tuesday to pick a new nominee in the Senate race following the death of Senator Lindsey Graham.

Darline Graham was appointed by South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster to fill the seat held by her brother, who died in July. She has received President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the runoff. She faces Norman, a conservative member of the House Freedom Caucus, as no candidate received an outright majority in the special primary held earlier in August.

Scott Huffmon, a professor of political science at Winthrop University, told Newsweek the race "could be close or a blowout."

"Without good, consistent polling, we just have no idea. Identifying likely voters for a runoff for a special primary with less than a month turnaround is a shot in the dark," he said.

Many conservatives prefer Norman because they view him as a “loose cannon” or a “disruptor” candidate, but Trump campaigning in person for Graham “hammers home that his endorsement for Graham is a ‘real’ endorsement that he is unequivocal about," Huffmon said.

“If a voter’s decision is all about Trump, then they don’t care what she knows about foreign policy or anything else. The question is will they ‘believe in’ this endorsement and be as, or more, motivated as the people who showed up at county meetings over the years to censure Lindsey Graham,” he said.

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TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS:

[Baladas]

it still looks like Sis will win it, but they say primary voters are more informed. Trump endorsed her, well, she seems clueless and I hope the guy wins it tomorrow

[ConservativeMind]

I’m getting her text and email requests for money.

I’m not giving a liberal money.

[boycott]

I sure hope she loses.

I am frustrated with Trump’s endorsements.

If we lose the house and senate because of his endorsements, we’ve got some tough years ahead.

Also, Trump is setting on $800+ million PAC money. If he doesn’t use it to help us win both the house and senate, I will have a problem with that. He raised under the pretenses of helping elect conservative republicans. Let’s see what he does with all that money.

[montag813]

This is a disaster if she wins. Trump sentimentality often gets the better of him.

[V_TWIN]

She’s on record saying she is actively working to help build up dei in SC.

What President Trump is thinking here is beyond my understanding that’s for sure.

[DIRTYSECRET]

I’m against both for different reasons. Nepotism the first one. Then there’s the 6 year factor. In any red state we need the seat for 12 years, that’s 2 terms. Incumbency after term one allows resources to go to other races. Will Norman be around for 2 terms at his age? He’s older than Lindsey when he croaked. This one is on the voters for not thinking this through. Nancy Mace would have been good for 2 terms if she wasn’t whako and didn’t run for Gov. Fry was young enough but not good enough. Who’s left? SC could do better-voters and candidates. Maybe it’s only the party leadership that’s qualified to do this-not always.

[j.havenfarm]

“However, on Kalshi, her chances have narrowed over the past week; on August 17, Graham had about an 89 percent chance of winning the nomination.”

I regret the pervasiveness that gambling is assuming in our society. It’s not good.

But that’s not my point: the argument in favor of citing Kalshi and others is that, since people’s money is on the line, they’re careful in making their determinations. I think that’s nonsense and the betting markets on these issues is driven by people buying into whatever the received wisdom is, and personal preference

[Dawgreg]

Come on South Carolina.......we put up with Lindsey and his wish-washy decisions.....PLEASE give America a REAL CONSERVATIVE from your state.....thank you

[Sarah Barracuda]

then they don’t care what she knows about foreign policy or anything else.

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Funny, they didnt care when AOC went to a foreign country and couldnt answer a simple question about Taiwan yet she has a great chance at being the Dem nominee in 2028. I agree that Darline Graham is not experienced and doesnt know anything about foreign policy, but its up to the people of SC to decide and I hope whoever they chose can beat the Dem that simple

[gibsonguy]

Pulling for Norman, the lesser of evils…again.

[chopperk]

That Conservative is Darline.

[daler]

“Also, Trump is setting on $800+ million PAC money. If he doesn’t use it to help us win both the house and senate, I will have a problem with that.”

70 days to the election, and is the GOP even campaigning?

I’m not in TX, but I’m seeing reports that Paxton is nearly invisible.

I do live in MN where every Democrat should be getting politically bludgeoned, but you get the sense the GOP believes they will win by being nice.

[boycott]

Trump loses me if they don’t step up. People didn’t send him $800+ million for him to keep for himself.

We shouldn’t be even close in Texas. Trump can lose a lot of support if the midterms don’t go well.

[chickenlips]

Trump is against DEI until he’s not. When he’s not he likes his own brand of it, candidates with XX chromosomes.

[TheEditor]

Trump has endorsed Graham because she has no native political base other than her name. As such she would be maximally servile to Trump. And that’s his favorite kind of nominee even to the extent that such a prospect makes the candidate weaker in the general election.

Of course that’s not a problem in South Carolina.

[mac_truck]

She’s on record saying she is actively working to help build up dei in SC.

I saw that video, Dalene all masked up saying she wants to 'lead the way' on DEI at whatever state agency she was a prt of....meanwhile Ralph Norman was getting fined by Pelosi for NOT masking up in Congress.

[Steven Scharf]

Trump loses me if they don’t step up. People didn’t send him $800+ million for him to keep for himself.

Can you provide the name or names of the PACs that have these funds?

Last week he supposedly had $400 milion, now it is $800 million. I could not find any Trump related PAC with more than a $1 million in it’s coffers on FEC.gov

[boycott]

“Well, I’ve raised a lot, and nobody knows what it is, but I will tell you it’s about $850 million,” Trump said before boarding Air Force One to fly to South Carolina. “I’ll be spending a lot of that money for — and my own money — but I’ll be spending a lot of that money for candidates that I think are good, Republican candidates.”

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https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6044628-trump-spending-maga-pac-midterms/

Yeah I know it’s The Hill but I’ve read the same on other sources.

[alaskamomma]

Aaawww, and Newsweak is crying over it. How sick are these medias. Everything is (Trump backed, Trump supports, Trump Trump Trump) like it’s supposed to mean something. that is the way to brainwash the millions of citizens. It’s time you citizens wake up to it. These medias are so transparent they are like ghost. Laugh at them and think for yourself.

[heterosupremacist]

She said she will “nuke the filibuster” and Trump didn’t see a problem with that, although it will leave future GOP leaders utterly defenseless when they inevitably find themselves in the minority.