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Peak Human Is Coming Sooner Than You Think
The Free Press ^ | 5/13/26 | Nicholas Eberstadt and Patrick Norrick

Posted on 05/15/2026 3:11:44 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970

We are in the midst of a headlong global birth crash—a plunge underway all around the world, in rich and poor regions alike, very possibly presaging an indefinite global depopulation, with our “peak human” moment coming much sooner than almost anyone imagined even a few years ago.

This is not what demography’s experts long predicted. For decades, demographers simply assumed that the postwar drop in worldwide birth rates would lead to an eventual equilibrium, with childbearing converging in one region after another at a little over two births per woman, the level required for long-term replacement. They envisioned a mere slowing of the explosive worldwide population growth from the 20th century, the extraordinary period in which human life expectancy more than doubled and the global population nearly quadrupled (from 1.6 billion to over 6 billion).

Instead it is now apparent that we are witnessing a worldwide march into the terra incognita of prolonged sub-replacement fertility, with no hints yet of how far humanity’s birth rates will ultimately fall—or when they will recover, if ever.

(Excerpt) Read more at thefp.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: abortion; demographics; population; tfr

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I remember noticing a while back that official (UN, etc.) population estimates had routinely overestimated actual population growth for decades. An obvious conclusion was that the predictions of the population continuing to grow for decades was wrong, and that peak population would come fairly soon. This article supports that hypothesis.

Also note that economically and socially we will feel like population is going into decline years before it actually happens. This is because in the final phases of population growth, the "growth" will basically consist of large numbers of very elderly hanging on, moving into nursing homes and assisted living spaces, as births continue to plummet. Although alive the elderly population will contribute little or nothing to the economy, nor will they be out and about and interacting much socially. This is not an argument against their inherent worth and value, just an observation that societies will begin to feel like they are in stagnation and decay even before the top-line population numbers start to drop.

1 posted on 05/15/2026 3:11:44 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Muslims are the exception. Hence, there may become a second peak.


2 posted on 05/15/2026 3:14:28 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: Carry_Okie

Muslim nations are inherently parasitic and unstable and depend on productive nations to keep them afloat.

They’ll immediately collapse if not supported by the outside.


3 posted on 05/15/2026 3:18:56 PM PDT by MeanWestTexan (Sometimes There Is No Lesser Of Two Evils)
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To: MeanWestTexan

The West has been subsidizing Muslim population growth for decades.

This was expanded on with the Muslim Oil nations, were oil wealth was not subsidizing population growth, but was fueling it.


4 posted on 05/15/2026 3:26:44 PM PDT by marktwain (----------------------)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Ten years ago, only people on the “fringe” were warning about this. Now it is common knowledge. Many have likened it to the result of the “Mouse Utopia” experiment in the 1960s and 1970s. And I can see why, the similarities are striking.

While I can’t prove it, I suspect the culprit is a combination of mainly three things: The rise of Women’s rights, the decline of Religion (e.g., swapping meaning for nihlism), and Technology.

It also seems that young men especially these days lack ambition, perhaps due to low Testosterone.

The really eye-opening thing is when heavily Catholic ethnicities like the Irish and the Italians have low birthrates. I never imagined I would see that.


5 posted on 05/15/2026 3:29:02 PM PDT by rbg81 (=)
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To: rbg81

I also feel like there are sinister cultural forces that are pitting men and women against each other. Intentionally. Perhaps with the goal of depopulation or even human extinction. It certainly raised my eyebrows when I saw popular book that were literally daydreaming about human extinction.


6 posted on 05/15/2026 3:31:33 PM PDT by rbg81 (=)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

I have an idea: stop aborting pregnancies. Maybe? Just spitballin’.


7 posted on 05/15/2026 3:31:50 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all. )
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To: EnderWiggin1970

There are 8 Billion now. We could manage with 4 or 5 billion.


8 posted on 05/15/2026 3:36:07 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: Texas Eagle

I think the social change is happening. I watch garbage when I am on the treadmill and been muddling my way through the very weak Roast of Kevin Hart.

One of the comedians was the awful Chelsey Handler who brags about her abortions.

She was introduced by the MC as “the only person who has killed more innocent black babies than the LAPD”


9 posted on 05/15/2026 3:38:18 PM PDT by MeanWestTexan (Sometimes There Is No Lesser Of Two Evils)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

I think the article could have been written in a paragraph.


10 posted on 05/15/2026 3:38:26 PM PDT by TTFX
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Eventually, children will become popular again.

Those who choose to have children will populate the world.

It could take centuries. It could reverse in a decade or two, when robotic nannies make child-rearing a time without sleepless nights for the first two years.

It will go back up. In the meantime, a reduction of population leaves lots of resources for those remaining.


11 posted on 05/15/2026 3:38:46 PM PDT by marktwain (----------------------)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

I’ve subscribed to The American Spectator for a long time.

Here is a great article about the expansion and birth rates inside the Amish.

“””The Amish, who are traditionalist Anabaptists, demonstrate fertility rates that far exceed those of the rest of America. Whereas the U.S. fertility rate is 1.62 births per woman — well below replacement levels — the Amish hover between 6 and 7 children per woman.

In recent decades, the Amish have been shifting away from only agriculture. Now, only about one-third of Amish men remain in agriculture, while the other two-thirds are engaged in manufacturing, construction, woodworking, small businesses, blacksmithing, and trades jobs.”””

After the hurricane damage in North Carolina, dozens of Amish just showed up and built small homes for the families ravaged by the storm.

https://spectator.org/amish-population-surpasses-400000/


12 posted on 05/15/2026 3:42:01 PM PDT by Ronaldus Magnus III (Do, or do not, there is no try. )
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To: EnderWiggin1970

The globalist communists want to rule the world and kill everyone of us off.


13 posted on 05/15/2026 4:00:34 PM PDT by wildcard_redneck ( Neocons in love with the Ukraine War hate how long the Iran War is taking.......... )
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To: MeanWestTexan

RE: “the only person who has killed more innocent black babies than the LAPD”

I see what you mean about watching “garbage.”

That is reprehensible.


14 posted on 05/15/2026 4:07:12 PM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls. )
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To: rbg81

What were the Mouse Utopia experiments?


15 posted on 05/15/2026 4:08:46 PM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls. )
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To: rbg81

RE: I never imagined I would see that.

My anti-Catholic grandmother (born in 1898) told me Catholics push women to have more children without birth control in order to increase the money and numerical power of the Church.

Now that Catholic women refuse to listen to or obey the priests more and more, they reduce family size.


16 posted on 05/15/2026 4:12:20 PM PDT by frank ballenger (There's a battle outside and it's raging. It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls. )
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To: Carry_Okie
Muslims are the exception. Hence, there may become a second peak.

Wrong.

17 posted on 05/15/2026 4:12:33 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: marktwain
The West has been subsidizing Muslim population growth for decades.

How? Wealth/development correlates with a declining birthrate. So "subsidizing" them has contributed to the collapse of their birthrate as well, not propping it up.

If people would read the article they'd see mentions of (at least nominally) Muslim nations like Iran and Indonesia now dropping below a TFR of 1, among the most severely hit by the depopulation crisis.

18 posted on 05/15/2026 4:14:34 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: frank ballenger
My anti-Catholic grandmother (born in 1898) told me Catholics push women to have more children without birth control in order to increase the money and numerical power of the Church.


19 posted on 05/15/2026 4:14:39 PM PDT by dfwgator ("I am Charlie Kirk!")
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To: rbg81
It also seems that young men especially these days lack ambition...

Young men don't lack ambition. They'll reach level 5,000 of some video game while coordinating with their peers. They just won't put the same effort into a low-paying dead end job for globalists who've overrun their country with foreign invaders, and saddled them with debt that they'll never pay off before they were even born.

In addition, they refuse to contend with hoe-flation where they'd have to work 5 times harder than their grandfathers for women who are 20 times worse than their grandmothers.

Young men have adopted the Tang Ping philosophy, "lying down flat and get over the beatings". They've been told they're the devil because they're white and male and so they're simply walking away.

"Who is John Galt?"

20 posted on 05/15/2026 4:15:22 PM PDT by T.B. Yoits
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