Mapped: the elections that could deliver ‘unprecedented’ losses for Labour

Labour is on track for its worst local election performance, data analysed by the Guardian shows, in a blow that will pile further pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Barring a drastic change in fortunes, Labour’s vote-share could fall to historic lows across elections for councils in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland on 7 May, with big gains for Reform, the Greens and nationalist parties, according to recent polling.

The collapse in support is particularly existential in the race for the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, which Labour has dominated since its creation in 1999.

Polling shows Labour’s vote share falling by more than half in Wales, enough to push the party into third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru vying for first.

Labour’s long-term decline in Scotland is expected to continue, with the Scottish National party likely to remain in power in Holyrood and Reform headed for second place.

In England, Labour faces several threats – from Reform, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and independents – across 136 council races, including in its strongholds in London and the north.

While reliable polling across the council races is hard to come by, the recent fall in Labour’s national poll rating, alongside rises for other parties, is leading experts to expect “unprecedented losses”.

Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, has estimated Labour will lose 1,900 councillors on 7 May – 74% of the number of seats the party currently holds that are up for re-election.

Such a result would be the worst local election performance for any prime minister since comparable data began.

On Thursday May 7th the United Kingdom will have three elections in three out of the four constituent countries of the UK.

England- Local elections for 5,066 English councillors[7] across 2,969 wards and divisions on 136 English local authorities[2] (all 32 London borough councils, 32 metropolitan boroughs, 18 unitary authorities, 6 county councils, 48 district councils) and six directly elected mayors in England. Most of these seats in England were last up for election in 2022. Some of these elections were postponed from 2025.

These elections are only in parts of England, other parts have their local elections in different years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections

Scotland- The 2026 Scottish Parliament election is due to be held on Thursday 7 May 2026, and will elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Scottish_Parliament_election

Wales- The 2026 Senedd election is due to be held on 7 May 2026[1][2] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the first election following reforms to the voting system, which increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopt a party-list voting system, reduce the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shorten its term from five years to four.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Senedd_election

Northern Ireland - No elections scheduled

Labour is expected to get shellacked in all three elections. They are expected lose thousands of seats in the English local elections. They are also expected to do poorly in the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales.

Depending on how badly Labour performs, the losses will increase the pressure on Sir Kier Starmer to resign as leader of the Labour Party. If he resigns as leader, he would stay on as Prime Minister until a new leader was chosen by Labour. He would then resign as PM and the King would appoint the new Labour leader as Prime Minister.

It is worth noting that these upcoming UK elections are all local elections. They will have little impact on the overall direction the UK is heading.

Ultimate power in the UK rests with the House of Commons. Labour has a huge majority there. And they don’t have to call for a general election before August of 2029.

So a huge Labour loss in these upcoming elections will be a warning of sorts for Labour. But it will not affect their grip on power. Labour will still get to pick the Prime Minister. Until at least August of 2029.

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