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Posted on 03/27/2026 6:59:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
MARCH 26, 2026 – Population growth slowed in a majority of the nation’s 3,143 counties and the District of Columbia between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, according to the Vintage 2025 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Among the 2,066 counties that grew between 2023 and 2024, nearly 8 in 10 saw their growth slow or reverse direction in 2025. In many cases, counties already in decline saw losses accelerate.
Meanwhile, 310 of the 387 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (metro areas) had slower growth between 2024 and 2025 than during the prior year. The three metro areas with the steepest percentage point declines in population growth rates were along the U.S.-Mexico border: Laredo, TX (from 3.2% in 2023-2024 to 0.2% from 2024 to 2025); Yuma, AZ (3.3% to 1.4%); and El Centro, CA (1.2% to -0.7%).
These shifts were largely due to lower levels of net international migration (NIM), which declined nationwide. Nine out of 10 U.S. counties experienced lower NIM levels between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025, compared to the year prior. The one in 10 counties that did not see a drop in international migration did not see an increase either.
Some of the country’s most populous counties experienced the greatest impacts from lower NIM. These counties typically had more births than deaths (natural increase) as well as negative net domestic migration — more people moving out than moving in from other areas of the country. Coupled with reduced NIM, the result was slower growth or, in some cases, population decline.
“The nation’s largest counties like those in the New York metro area are often international migration hubs, gaining large numbers of international migrants and losing people that move to other parts of the country via domestic migration,” explained George M. Hayward, a Census Bureau demographer. "With fewer gains from international migration, these types of counties saw their population growth diminish or even turn into loss.”
The Population Estimates Program uses current data on births, deaths and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census (2020 Census) and produce an annual time series of population estimates. Today’s release includes population totals and components of change for U.S. counties and metro areas and micropolitan statistical areas (micro areas), and total population for Puerto Rico municipios and metro/micro areas. Tables are available on census.gov/popest.
Refer to the bottom of the release for tables on Population Change by County Size, Components of Population Change by County Size, Top 10 Most Populous Counties, Top 10 Counties by Numeric Growth: 2024 to 2025, Top 10 Counties by Percent Growth: 2024 to 2025, Top 10 Counties by Numeric Decline: 2024 to 2025, and Top 10 Counties by Percent Decline: 2024 to 2025.
Refer to the bottom of the release for tables on Population Change by Metro/Micro Area Status, Components of Population Change by Metro/Micro Area Status, Top 10 U.S. Metro Areas by Numeric Growth: 2024 to 2025, Top 10 U.S. Metro Areas by Percent Growth: 2024 to 2025, Top 10 U.S. Micro Areas by Numeric Growth: 2024 to 2025, and Top 10 U.S. Micro Areas by Percent Growth: 2024 to 2025.
The most recent net international migration estimates reflect methodological improvements, including the incorporation of additional administrative data at the subnational level. Details are available in the Random Samplings blog, “New Population Estimates Show Historic Decline in Net International Migration.”
The Census Bureau in June is scheduled to release July 1, 2025, population estimates by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin for the nation, states metro and micro areas and counties, and population by age and sex for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and its municipios. Vintage 2025 incorporates the 2020 Census by full demographic detail (age, sex, race and Hispanic origin) into the April 1, 2020, estimates base for the first time. These data will be embargoed.
With each new release of annual estimates, the entire time series of estimates is revised for all years back to the date of the last census. All previously published estimates (i.e., old vintages) are superseded and archived on the FTP2 site. Due to periodic methodological updates, year-to-year comparisons in the estimates should only be done within the same vintage.
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2024 | July 1, 2025 | Numeric Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | Harris County | 4,730,408 | 4,996,331 | 5,045,026 | 48,695 | |
| 2 | Texas | Collin County | 1,066,201 | 1,254,213 | 1,297,179 | 42,966 | |
| 3 | Arizona | Maricopa County | 4,425,302 | 4,654,147 | 4,689,558 | 35,411 | |
| 4 | Texas | Montgomery County | 620,551 | 751,183 | 781,194 | 30,011 | |
| 5 | North Carolina | Wake County | 1,129,356 | 1,229,475 | 1,257,235 | 27,760 | |
| 6 | Washington | King County | 2,269,668 | 2,317,959 | 2,344,939 | 26,980 | |
| 7 | North Carolina | Mecklenburg County | 1,115,554 | 1,206,829 | 1,233,383 | 26,554 | |
| 8 | Texas | Fort Bend County | 823,997 | 951,028 | 975,191 | 24,163 | |
| 9 | Texas | Williamson County | 609,059 | 729,013 | 752,827 | 23,814 | |
| 10 | Arizona | Pinal County | 425,993 | 515,726 | 539,380 | 23,654 | |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates | |||||||
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2024 | July 1, 2025 | Percent Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Carolina | Jasper County | 28,811 | 36,338 | 38,533 | 6.0 | |
| 2 | Texas | Waller County | 56,769 | 66,097 | 69,858 | 5.7 | |
| 3 | Texas | Kaufman County | 145,337 | 198,010 | 209,235 | 5.7 | |
| 4 | Georgia | Jackson County | 75,945 | 94,302 | 99,265 | 5.3 | |
| 5 | Georgia | Long County | 16,150 | 20,493 | 21,557 | 5.2 | |
| 6 | North Carolina | Brunswick County | 136,695 | 166,889 | 174,702 | 4.7 | |
| 7 | Arizona | Pinal County | 425,993 | 515,726 | 539,380 | 4.6 | |
| 8 | Texas | Liberty County | 91,661 | 116,291 | 121,364 | 4.4 | |
| 9 | Georgia | Dawson County | 26,797 | 33,945 | 35,365 | 4.2 | |
| 10 | Texas | Caldwell County | 45,882 | 52,939 | 55,150 | 4.2 | |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates | |||||||
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2024 | July 1, 2025 | Numeric Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | Los Angeles County | 10,017,414 | 9,748,868 | 9,694,934 | -53,934 | |
| 2 | Florida | Pinellas County | 959,090 | 960,397 | 948,563 | -11,834 | |
| 3 | Florida | Miami-Dade County | 2,701,762 | 2,812,144 | 2,802,029 | -10,115 | |
| 4 | New York | Queens County | 2,405,427 | 2,367,034 | 2,358,182 | -8,852 | |
| 5 | California | Orange County | 3,187,279 | 3,158,027 | 3,149,507 | -8,520 | |
| 6 | California | San Diego County | 3,298,648 | 3,287,542 | 3,282,248 | -5,294 | |
| 7 | Tennessee | Shelby County | 930,012 | 915,438 | 910,226 | -5,212 | |
| 8 | New York | Kings County | 2,736,291 | 2,658,657 | 2,653,963 | -4,694 | |
| 9 | Texas | Dallas County | 2,612,087 | 2,664,013 | 2,661,397 | -2,616 | |
| 10.5 | California | Ventura County | 844,358 | 833,431 | 830,851 | -2,580 | |
| 10.5 | New Mexico | Bernalillo County | 676,446 | 670,181 | 667,601 | -2,580 | |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates | |||||||
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2024 | July 1, 2025 | Percent Growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | Taylor County | 21,799 | 21,689 | 21,210 | -2.2 | |
| 2 | Louisiana | Vernon Parish | 48,748 | 46,079 | 45,091 | -2.1 | |
| 3 | California | Del Norte County | 27,749 | 26,959 | 26,410 | -2.0 | |
| 4 | Florida | Monroe County | 82,871 | 82,015 | 80,406 | -2.0 | |
| 5 | California | Tuolumne County | 55,612 | 54,185 | 53,160 | -1.9 | |
| 6 | Mississippi | Washington County | 44,918 | 41,218 | 40,446 | -1.9 | |
| 7 | Kentucky | Christian County | 72,799 | 71,436 | 70,115 | -1.8 | |
| 8 | Mississippi | Leflore County | 28,498 | 26,162 | 25,686 | -1.8 | |
| 9 | California | Lassen County | 32,729 | 28,593 | 28,117 | -1.7 | |
| 10 | New Mexico | Curry County | 48,428 | 47,377 | 46,655 | -1.5 | |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 Population Estimates | |||||||
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Interesting that the top three declining counties in California were all rural (largely Republican) enclaves: Tuolumne, Lassen, and Del Norte.
Cool post. Thanks.
Fewer and fewer people want to live in the outhouse when they can live in a house with plumbing.
Trump shuts off the flow of illegals on the Southern border and all the Census Bureau can blandly say is “These [population] shifts were largely due to lower levels of net international migration (NIM), which declined nationwide.”
Whoever wrote that probably had tongue firmly planted in cheek.
Interesting that the top three declining counties in California were all rural (largely Republican) enclaves: Tuolumne, Lassen, and Del Norte.
This is happening across the country. Looking at the Natural Change* data is most enlightening. In every county in the state of Maine the Natural Change Declined.
The population growth of the country has been masked by the international migration. That mask is coming off. This data only reflect the first 5 months of the Trump administration. Next years numbers will probably be even lower. I could see the total population decline and the total Natural Change also decline. That would mean more people died then were born.
* For reference, Natural Change is Birth over Deaths. There is no attempt to determine if you were born or died in the place you actually live.
net international migration
Yes, an interesting term of art. They actually have different tables that show the in migration and out migration. The Components table only shows the net. At some point to much information dilutes the information.
Also I always like to add footnote 2 which explains what Net Migration is counting. People thing it is just foreigners. It is not.
2 Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both U.S.-born and non-U.S.-born populations. Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the non-U.S. born, (b) the net migration of U.S. born to and from the United States, (c) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.
I find it troubling that it takes the Census Bureau almost a year to produce this data. We won’t get the municpal level populations until June when it will be time to start the process over again.
Other countrie produce it much faster. Note, some of them have national idenity cards which make it easier to compile the info.
Well that certainly would take care of the “affordability crisis.”
Good thing I didn’t get the jab.
Thanks for the footnote. That helps a lot with definitions. But what fraction of NIM fall into the Footnote 2 categories? I would think that the only one in Footnote 2 that might have a big impact would be military people.
“6 Washington King County 2,269,668 2,317,959 2,344,939 26,980”
I escaped King county in 1979.
Been back to visit; What an east coast
style toilet it has become!
That’s what happens when you close the border.
“That’s what happens when you close the border.”
Now repeal Hart-Celler.
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