Gov. Abbott projected to face Gina Hinojosa in November midterm

The general election is Nov. 3; Early voting for the general election is scheduled for Oct. 19 through Oct. 30.

Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is expected to face Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa in the midterm governor's race this fall.

Hinojosa's camp claimed victory early in the evening. With about 35% of the vote counted, Hinojosa has about 60% of the vote in a crowded field of eight challengers. Her nearest competitor, Chris Bell, had nearly 10% of the vote.

"Tonight, working Texans sent a clear message: they’re ready for change," said Hinojosa. "From the Rio Grande Valley to East Texas, Texans are united behind one message: we must end the Greg Abbott Corruption Tax and make Texas an affordable place where people can thrive again. We are going to run full speed into November, because working families in this state deserve a governor who works just as hard as they do."

Abbott, who held off 10 challengers in the GOP race, is projected to win his primary election. With 37% of the vote counted, Abbott has about 83% of the vote and his next nearest challenger, Pete "Doc" Chambers, had about 11% of the vote.

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Based on early 2026 polling and political trends, the likely outcome of the Texas gubernatorial race between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa is a victory for Abbott, though it is shaping up to be a more competitive race than his previous landslide wins.

While the Cook Political Report rates the race as “solid” Republican, recent polling indicates a tighter-than-expected contest:

Data: Early 2026 polls showed Abbott leading Hinojosa, with a University of Houston survey showing a 7-point lead (49% to 42%) and an Emerson College poll showing an 8-point lead (50% to 42%).

Internal Polling Contrast: An internal poll for Hinojosa’s campaign indicated a tighter 3-point gap (46% to 43%), with Hinojosa drawing support from independent, young, and Latino voters.

Incumbent Advantage: Abbott enters the 2026 race with a massive financial advantage, having over $105 million in cash on hand as of early 2026.

Key Issues: The election is expected to be fought over the economy, which tops voter concerns at 28%, followed by threats to democracy and immigration.

While Hinojosa is viewed as a strong contender to bridge the gap in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over 30 years, Abbott’s fundraising and, so far, consistent lead in public polls make him the favored candidate.

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