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Posted on 02/09/2026 10:11:39 PM PST by SeekAndFind
You may vote red or blue, but would you rather live in a blue state or a red state? Regardless of what people do at the ballot box, newly released data from the Census Bureau overwhelmingly show people voting with their feet, leaving blue states for red states. And this is nothing new.
From July 2024 to July 2025 (the latest numbers available), blue states like California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts hemorrhaged their most valuable resource—people—at an alarming rate.
These were the five worst states for net domestic migration, meaning more people left those states than moved in, for a combined net loss of 477,000 in just 12 months. Since 2020, these five deep-blue states have cumulative net losses reaching almost 3.7 million people in total. That’s a lot of one-way U-Hauls.
By contrast, the top-five destination states from July 2024 to July 2025 were North Carolina, Texas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Arizona—all red. The Census Bureau numbers clearly show people are fleeing blue states for red states, and that’s been the pattern for years, including the entire decade before 2020.
The story is no different when looking at percentage changes, instead of absolute numbers. Since 2020, New York, Washington DC, California, Hawaii, and Illinois have seen the largest shares of their population move to other states on net. Sadly, this trend has been going on for a while, and many saw it coming.
In March 2021, I coauthored a study with Stephen Moore in which we calculated that New York’s then latest tax increase would cause even more people to pick up and leave the Empire State, which was already home to some of the highest taxes in the country.
Fast forward to today, and our estimates were right on the money. Since 2020, New York has ignominiously led the nation with net migration losses hitting a whopping 1.1 million, or 5.5 percent of the state’s population. Will the last New Yorker please turn out the lights?
Mr. Moore and I authored a similar study with Dr. Arthur Laffer in 2020 that looked at how Illinois’s oppressive tax burden was causing people to flee the state in droves. Since then, almost 460,000 Americans have escaped the Land of Lincoln on net—3.6 percent of the state’s population.
Sadly, there are fewer people living in New York and Illinois today than when we authored those studies. So, where did everyone go? The top-ten list of destinations is solid red.
Since 2020, the states with the largest net domestic migration are Florida, Texas, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona, Georgia, Alabama, Idaho, and Oklahoma. Almost 3.8 million people on net moved to these states, roughly equal to how many people on net left the biggest loser states—which were all blue.
But why are people overwhelmingly taking the one-way street from left-wing bastions to conservative states? It’s because they’re sick of living in financial and social basket cases.
Blue states have a significantly higher tax burden than red states, including income taxes, property taxes, sales and excise taxes, etc. The 10 states with the highest overall tax burden are all blue, while the 10 lowest are all red.
A lower tax burden means a lower cost of living and makes it easier to save, invest, and own a home. By allowing individuals and businesses to keep more of what they earn, people’s take-home pay is higher and their paychecks go further. With lower sales, excise, and property taxes, the total cost to the consumer for products and services is cheaper.
And while red states like Florida are planning tax cuts, blue states like Virginia are planning tax hikes, and that’s on top of already having higher-than-average tax burdens.
And what do residents get for the nose-bleed level of taxation in places like California, New York, and Illinois? They don’t get roads smooth as glass or better schools—literacy and numeracy rates are terrible. Nor do they get safer streets—places like New York City and Chicago are among the deadliest in America. Californian cities have more homeless people than any state in the country.
It’s obvious that folks prefer to live in red states because public policy matters, and people are proving it by getting one-way tickets out of blue states.
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., is chief economist and the Richard Aster fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a senior fellow at Unleash Prosperity.
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I’ve seen forecasts that Illinois could lose 2 congressional seats after the 2030 census is counted. It lost 1 congressional seat after the 2020 census.
Not mentioned in the article is that the price of energy is significantly lower in red states. Here in SC, our heating and A/C costs are 1/3rd less, maybe more now, than CT from where I fled 12 years ago. I warned them not to close the coal plants.
Critical Mass
Just don’t move red and vote blue.
We have enuff local blue aholes and don’t need more...
If you voted for it, live with it. Don’t come to my State.
If you voted for it, live with it. Don’t come to my State.
Presumably at least red leaners, so the red states get more read and the blue states more blue.
That’s unfortunately not true as a rule. Most of the highest-crime states skew red (E.g., the entire South).
“ Most of the highest-crime states skew red”
What you say is technically correct, but it’s a great example of how statistics lie.
Take Texas for example. Has a high-ish violence rate.
But its crime is limited almost exclusively to deep blue cities and even then deep blue voting districts. Outside of democrat islands, the crime rate is akin to Joan or Switzerland.
Of course, the same general trend of violence being limited to democrat-run areas is also true in blue states, but it’s not as stark as their bad governance lets crime bleed all over a bit more.
In sort, America doesn’t have a gun or violence problem. It has a Democrat run city problem.
I could have told you that EJ Antoni, Ph.D.
Hey Blue State refugees - if you are a Democrat, please leave your politics behind. My concern is they will do what those who left California for Colorado did - Californicated it.
Nope. Sorry. I don’t buy that. Of course there tends to be higher crime in cities, but overall higher crime rates are in red states, whereas your claim would suggest otherwise.
I was hoping they were migrating to red states due to political beliefs, but that doesn’t appear to be the case in this article.
They just want to live cheaper. So, logically, they’re bringing their leftist commie politics with them, and soon will dilute the “red-ness” of the good states, turning them purple or blue.
In 2021-23, a contractor was building a string of new homes across the street from us. As they became occupied, we’d see cars with various states’ license plates. Our neighbor was a sort of Welcome Wagon. If he saw tags from liberal states, he’d take his first opportunity to introduce himself, welcome them to the neighborhood, and menacingly tell them to “Leave your politics behind!”
Fortunately, every one was conservative. They were moving due to the heavy hand of government re Covid in the states where they had lived.
Now that Covid isn’t a big factor, I’m not hopeful that conservatives will be a majority of the newcomers.
The lowest crime states are Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.
It has less to do with politics as it does with the amount of minorities.
These three states are all 90% or more White.
With VT , a very liberal blue state being 95% white.
The only crime in VT is among the Somalis that control the drug trade in Burlington.
The only other crime in Vermont is the now constant theft of skis and snowboards at the resorts.
The answer to why is simple. People do not want to live is states that are ruled by insane Leftists with insane leftist policies. A lot of people still believe in bedrock American principles and Communism is not one of them!
You are right about that, but the situation is still as it is, red to blue. (One could suggest that less concern about crime impacts political views.)
Anything that lessens the lunatic left’s influence in Congress , is a very good thing! It is also why the lunatic Left fights so hard for illegals to stay.
Over 60 years NYS has lost half its House seats.
This has been going on for decades.
The enemedia just noticed?!
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