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Private payroll growth in January misses expectations as market awaits official jobs data
Yahoo Finance ^ | Feb 4, 2026 | Emma Ockerman

Posted on 02/04/2026 6:56:40 AM PST by lasereye

US private employers added fewer positions than anticipated last month, according to the private payroll processor ADP, starting 2026 off on a downbeat note.

Private payrolls grew by just 22,000 in January, ADP said Wednesday, below economists' expectations of 45,000 positions.

The tally for last year was perhaps an omen.

"Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. "While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable."

Manufacturing helped lead the slowdown with a drop of 8,000 jobs in January, according to ADP, less than one year out from President Trump's sweeping tariffs and promises to restore positions to the sector. Professional and business services also continued to decline, while construction added roles. Losses across the economy would’ve appeared even more stark if not for the healthcare and education sectors posting positive growth, with 74,000 new positions gained in January.

December's gains were also revised downward, with 37,000 positions added rather than the initially reported 41,000.

This week’s private data releases — ADP with private payroll growth on Wednesday, and the job outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas with layoffs announcements on Thursday — will be even more closely watched than usual, thanks to the brief, partial government shutdown pushing back the latest official Labor Department data on openings, job growth, and the unemployment rate.

Though the shutdown ended Tuesday, there's been no word yet on when the all-important government data will be made public.

To be sure, nothing too major was seen on the horizon: the Chicago Fed saw the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: adp; cookthebookstrump; payroll
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Whatever manufacturing gains may come from Pres Trump's trade deals are several years in the future. So far, all the tariffs have done is add some revenue to the Treasury and increase prices of hundreds of things. Production of most of those things is not going to be moved to the US and if they were they would be low paying jobs anyway.

One other major thing the tariffs did is cut the trade deficit with China.

1 posted on 02/04/2026 6:56:40 AM PST by lasereye
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To: lasereye
Production of most of those things is not going to be moved to the US and if they were they would be low paying jobs anyway.

Construction jobs will pay well. Plant mechanics and electricians will make a killing.

2 posted on 02/04/2026 7:13:26 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: lasereye

People against tariffs are globalist traitors PERIOD.


3 posted on 02/04/2026 7:22:31 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn... )
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To: lasereye

Laser traitor bump


4 posted on 02/04/2026 7:23:07 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn... )
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To: lasereye

Da “market” actually believes that “official jobs data”. ROTFL.


5 posted on 02/04/2026 8:19:20 AM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Cheech Frey and his sidekick, Timmy Chong have turned Minniesomalia into a Cheech & Chong movie.)
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To: Carry_Okie

That is not true. Manufacturing jobs are high tech making complex parts. The problem is HS grads can’t read write or do basic math. They do know what a transgender is.


6 posted on 02/04/2026 8:48:17 AM PST by cp124 (Bring back the Constitution.)
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To: cp124
That is not true. Manufacturing jobs are high tech making complex parts.

I started as a manufacturing and process engineer in microelectonics and went from there to R&D and then project management in medical devices, installing the equipment I had invented worldwide. I'll stand on what I said.

7 posted on 02/04/2026 8:55:59 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The tree of liberty needs a rope.)
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To: lasereye

The ADP jobs report is a minuscule snapshot of the real jobs report and is notoriously incorrect.

But you knew that already, didn’t you.


8 posted on 02/04/2026 9:00:03 AM PST by mlitefan (Long time lurker...)
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To: lasereye

ADP...

Consider the source.


9 posted on 02/04/2026 9:00:06 AM PST by mewzilla (Swing away, Mr. President, swing away! 🇺🇸 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿)
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To: lasereye

Keep trying slugger....

The ADP National Employment Report can show bias due to its reliance on data from companies that specifically outsource payroll to ADP, rather than a random, representative sample of the entire U.S. economy. While it often tracks private sector trends, it is not a direct predictor of the official BLS report, as it misses government jobs and has a different methodology.

Key Reasons for Potential Bias and Differences:

Sample Selection: ADP’s data only covers its own client base, which may not accurately represent the broader economy, particularly small “mom-and-pop” businesses.
Sector & Size Discrepancies: ADP clients may be more profitable or faster-growing than non-clients, requiring ADP Research Institute to apply corrections to align with Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data.

No Government Coverage: The report is limited strictly to private-sector, nonfarm employment, excluding federal, state, and local government jobs.

Methodology Divergence: ADP counts workers who are on the payroll (even if unpaid during strikes/disasters), while the BLS surveys employers to count workers who received pay during the reference period


10 posted on 02/04/2026 9:03:27 AM PST by mlitefan (Long time lurker...)
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To: lasereye

“they would be low paying jobs anyway.”

Deporting low wage immigrant Mexicans is counterproductive to increasing manufacturing in the US. How many Americans on welfare want the nuisance of a low paying job when welfare is available?


11 posted on 02/04/2026 11:12:08 AM PST by spintreebob
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To: mlitefan

Yes the ADP report only estimates private sector jobs growth. As you can see by the title of this article.

I actually don’t want big growth in government jobs. I thought was a widely held opinion among conservatives.


12 posted on 02/04/2026 1:22:15 PM PST by lasereye
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To: FlingWingFlyer

This is not “official jobs data”. It is from ADP, the big payroll company.


13 posted on 02/04/2026 1:23:47 PM PST by lasereye
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To: mewzilla

Is there some other source showing robust jobs growth? If so what is it?


14 posted on 02/04/2026 1:27:39 PM PST by lasereye
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To: lasereye

The point is, the piece was a biased narrative setting article. Nothing more, nothing less. Not the first time it has been used to do so.

I thought most conservatives would understand that.


15 posted on 02/04/2026 3:23:32 PM PST by mlitefan (Long time lurker...)
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To: mlitefan

I thought your point is that there is something wrong with the ADP numbers. I can’t figure out what your point is.


16 posted on 02/04/2026 9:14:52 PM PST by lasereye
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To: lasereye

You don’t want to know what’s wrong with the ADP numbers. You are intellectually lazy and intellectually dishonest. Period.

But you chose to be so remember that.


17 posted on 02/05/2026 9:30:04 AM PST by mlitefan (Long time lurker...)
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To: mlitefan

Now it’s back to the ADP numbers having something wrong with them. I do want to know what’s wrong with them. You don’t know what’s wrong with the ADP numbers. So far you said they don’t count government jobs, which doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with them. That’s not what they’re supposed to do. Lots of economists follow the ADP numbers.

You’re playing some game where you feel some need to pretend there’s something wrong with them.

This is getting weird.


18 posted on 02/07/2026 8:30:55 PM PST by lasereye
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To: lasereye

I told you what is wrong with them in the context and narrative you tried to set by using them.

You are being willfully ignorant. Or are you really that stupid? Either way, it is who you are.

Deal with it. I already have...several times now.


19 posted on 02/08/2026 8:34:47 AM PST by mlitefan (Long time lurker...)
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To: mlitefan

I didn’t set any “context and narrative”. I just posted an article that reports them.

You seem to think nobody should be reporting the ADP numbers - unless they’re good numbers - in which case they should be reported I assume.

You’re a psychotic imbecile.


20 posted on 02/08/2026 9:37:56 AM PST by lasereye
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