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New York, California projected to lose 6 House seats to red states after 2030, census analysis shows (Florida and Texas gain 8)
Fox News ^ | Jan 27, 2026 | By Bonny Chu Fox News

Posted on 01/27/2026 8:30:04 PM PST by 11th_VA

Blue states appear to be on the brink of a growth decline after a census analysis released Tuesday found that Democratic strongholds are likely to lose congressional seats to their Republican counterparts after 2030.

New York and California specifically are projected to lose a combined six seats, while Texas and Florida may gain eight, according to the 2025-based estimates forecast by Jonathan Cervas at Carnegie Mellon University and shared by Redistricting Network.

The new data most notably underscores a looming downfall for the Empire State, which has been steadily losing seats since the 1940s.

"This is not good news for New York or California," said Jeff Wice, director of the New York Elections, Census, and Redistricting Institute at New York Law School, according to the New York Post.

Other blue state delegations, including Illinois, Rhode Island and Oregon, are also projected to lose one to two seats, while red states such as Utah and Idaho are expected to make small gains, the analysis shows...

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California; US: Florida; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS:

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That’s why they’re fighting to keep criminal illegals in their states…
1 posted on 01/27/2026 8:30:04 PM PST by 11th_VA
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To: 11th_VA

Exactly.


2 posted on 01/27/2026 8:34:59 PM PST by Signalman (When your enemy is digging himself a hole, don't take away his shovel.)
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To: 11th_VA

the census needs to be redone now. it was fraudulent.


3 posted on 01/27/2026 8:38:54 PM PST by dadfly
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To: 11th_VA

The change would be even more dramatic if we only counted people who we actually counted, and not the “drag ‘em over the goal-line” scientific estimates.


4 posted on 01/27/2026 8:40:51 PM PST by Bernard ("Nothing is as expensive as that which the government provides for free." - Ronald Reagan)
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To: 11th_VA
"This is not good news for New York or California," said Jeff Wice, director of the New York Elections, Census, and Redistricting Institute at New York Law School”

Now why would he say that I wonder ?

5 posted on 01/27/2026 8:44:56 PM PST by onona
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To: 11th_VA

This is wonderful.


6 posted on 01/27/2026 9:00:49 PM PST by gildafarrell (To Strive, To Seek, To Find and Not To Yield!)
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To: 11th_VA

California should be losing 15-20 seats, because of miscounting of illegal aliens, not merely 8.


7 posted on 01/27/2026 9:03:51 PM PST by montag813
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To: gildafarrell
This is wonderful.

It won't happen if Gavin Newsom wins in 2028.

CA and NY will lose -1. FL and TX will get +1. Other states like VA, CO will get +1.

8 posted on 01/27/2026 9:03:56 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: 11th_VA

Can it be possible? Is the worst over? Is Dawn coming?


9 posted on 01/27/2026 9:26:38 PM PST by Persevero (You cannot comply your way out of tyranny. )
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To: 11th_VA

Not enough of a loss and not soon enough


10 posted on 01/27/2026 9:46:29 PM PST by Sequoyah101
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To: Persevero

I don’t think that’s dawn or the sun looming on the Horizon of the future. Not at the rate we’re going now And that it may only get worse


11 posted on 01/27/2026 9:47:45 PM PST by Sequoyah101
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To: Persevero

Can it be possible? Is the worst over? Is Dawn coming?

***************

The current demographic changes over the next 30 years won’t favor the democrat coalition.

Without a huge amount of foreigners migrating to the United States they’re toast.


12 posted on 01/27/2026 9:50:39 PM PST by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel. )
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To: 11th_VA

If you think democraps, who are evil, and I mean evil, will let this pass, you have another thing coming. There is NO fairness or civility with them.


13 posted on 01/27/2026 9:51:08 PM PST by KC_Conspirator
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To: 11th_VA

This isn’t necessarily good news. Red states are gaining seats because they’re receiving an influx of people from blue states who are bringing they’re blue state politics with them.


14 posted on 01/27/2026 9:58:28 PM PST by Nachoman (Proudly oppressing people of color since 1957.)
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To: 11th_VA
Yes, it is absolutely critical to the democrats to keep as many of the 20 million illegal aliens (plus all their future chain migration illegal aliens) here as possible.

That is why they are so militantly and aggressively fighting any and all deportations! Democrats will fight Trump tooth and nail and relentlessly on this one.

15 posted on 01/27/2026 10:29:54 PM PST by volare737 ( Diversity is something to be overcome, not celebrated. )
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To: 11th_VA

How will those leaving blue states vote in the red state? Will they still vote for dems?


16 posted on 01/27/2026 10:39:56 PM PST by kalee
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To: 11th_VA

Democrat party leaders: “We need more Somali’s!!”.


17 posted on 01/28/2026 1:36:04 AM PST by minnesota_bound (Making money now. Still want much more.)
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To: 11th_VA

One of the most important laws this Congress can pass is to modify the census so as to count all persons in a state but also provide a count of only USA citizens in that same state. Congressional reapportionment should be based upon the count of USA citizens only.

We should all be requesting this census change to our Congress-critters as often as possible.

Many have noted that if this system were to be used the level of concern that democRATS have for the illegal aliens would dissipate.


18 posted on 01/28/2026 2:39:34 AM PST by ByteMercenary (Election 2020 was stolen by mail-in voting. Mail-in voting and RCV counting should be abolished.)
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To: kalee

They are parts of the virus that is spreading they need to stay in California and NY.


19 posted on 01/28/2026 4:59:31 AM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: 11th_VA
Couldn't happen to a better bunch of liberals....Mayor MadMani will help Florida get a few more seats...

And it won't be Demoncrats seats...It will be Red...

20 posted on 01/28/2026 5:33:29 AM PST by DeplorableTrumpSupporter (FKA ConservaTeen)
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