Russian victory would cost Europe twice as much as supporting Ukraine, study finds

The Kyiv Independent ^ | 29NOV2025 | Lucy Pakhnyuk

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

--- "The study is from a Norwegian think tank and is not of Ukrainian origin. Europe is mostly run by deluded Leftist elites who have wrecked their economies with Green energy fantasies and opened their countries to destructive mass immigration from the Third World."

Your comment regarding the European Union and their self-destructive policies is most apt. NATO Welfare states expecting the US to 1) do their bidding, and 2) amplify their funding.

The Norwegian-based article could have been sourced directly. Here is some of it, the machine-translated text from Norwegian to English, and as a hot link:

"This report outlines two possible scenarios for the further development of the war, how they can be realized, and what consequences they can have for European security and defense needs. The report aims to illustrate to Norwegian decision makers what basic economic and security policy choices the Russian attack war in Ukraine triggers, and how different outcomes in the war can affect our own security needs and defense spending. The situation is facing Europe's demands for resolute action."

Two scenarios for the war in Ukraine: What do they mean for Europe – and what will it cost? NUPI, 11 November 2025.

Note that last bit -- "...Europe's demands for resolute action." Europe demands resolute action from whom exactly? These United States? Else, Europe can just "Europe" its way into being an active participant.

Interesting speculation: "Five or ten years from now, NATO will be a dead letter, the EU near collapse, and Poland will be Europe's primary military land power." I speculate something quite the same. All those green welfare states welcoming migrant Muslims while demanding recognition of same sex marriage..... Cognitive dissonance screams.

[yesthatjallen]

Well that settles it. The US keeps funding the war and the war goes on.

[Uncle Miltie]

Keep that death and destruction coming!

[hal ogen]

Ukraine? F U.

[Uncle Miltie]

The < / s > html hint seemed unnecessary…

[Rockingham]

Like the rest of Scandinavia and Poland, Norway is especially vulnerable to Russian aggression. The study thus seeks to bolster the case for stronger action in support of Ukraine. Unfortunately, the major economic and political powers of the EU -- France, Germany, Britain, and Italy -- are in political and financial distress and seem unlikely to respond in a timely and adequate measure.

Of course, it is at least possible in concept that Norway will dip into their massive, oil and gas wealth derived sovereign wealth fund for the sake of Ukraine and their own security. I can well imagine a supercilious French diplomat responding to the demand for "resolute action" by asking why Norway looks to the rest of Europe for a solution that is within her own means.

[PGR88]

Think of how much it would cost to teach all the London Pakistanis to speak Russian when Putin occupies the UK.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

--- "I can well imagine a supercilious French diplomat responding to the demand for 'resolute action' by asking why Norway looks to the rest of Europe for a solution that is within her own means."

It surely has seemed -- throughout these years -- a game of "you first."

For so long now, Europe has been pleading with the US to "backstop" and "guarantee" and provide "no fly zones" and such, all the while talking big.

The image remains:

But Tusk said the quiet part out loud last March:

"500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. [...] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.” While the numbers are inexact, the general theme is not.

[Salman]

It's not about the money. Nor is it about Putin being evil nor is it some sort of geopolitical "great game".

The European powers want to be rid of their own indigenous working class. And yes that includes in Ukraine.

[Owen]

Not actually relevant. The export constraints are focused on any possible military application, and one of their clauses is that should it be found the magnets are repurposed, the original customer is cut off.

We have to come to accept that the Chinese are not stupid. They have the monopoly and they have zero reason to supply parts for weapons to countries hostile to any BRICS country.

Why would they do such a foolish thing?

[packrat35]

This is such a fantasy that I am surprised that anyone, no never mind, of course its just bullshit.

[Kazan]

European countries cutting themselves off from cheap Russian oil is the destroying their economies and industrial base.

[BeauBo]

“Europe doesn’t have that to spare, and Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower”

Europe (and the USA, and Japan, and Korea, and others in the Western alliance) in fact is growing its Military capacity and Defense Industrial Base at an historic pace, and Ukraine’s casualties have only been a tiny fraction of what they were in WWII. Although tragic and costly, Ukraine’s current casualty rate could be demographically sustained in near perpetuity.

In terms of having assets to “spare”, several Countries in Europe have larger GDP’s than Russia - Germany, France, the UK, and Italy.

It is important to note that not a single combat platform (tank, jet, howitzer, etc.) from NATO’s active force structure has been lost in the Ukraine War - not one. Russia’s pre-war fleets of combat platforms (and stored reserves) have been massively depleted. Russia can no longer field large Armored maneuver forces, which have long characterized the Red Army (since WWII).

In fact, NATO has been increasing its authorized/funded Active and Reserve force structure since Russia’s 2022 invasion, adding to its fleets. Acquisition programs (like the F-35) have continued apace, unaffected or growing, despite Ukraine aid. All equipment provided to Ukraine has come out of decommissioned inventory, or former ComBlock Soviet equipment. The budget increases now committed to over the next five years (to the 5% of GDP that President Trump successfully championed) will roughly double NATO’s resourcing, include standing up roughly a new Corps worth of Ground combat power, with corresponding increases in the Air and at Sea.

NATO now outproduces Russia in Artillery shells per month, the one category where Russia previously had an advantage, and the Artillery shell production ramp up is funded to continue growing in coming years.

As the West’s Defense production continues to increase, Russia’s has peaked, and begun to decline. Russia’s main tank/armored vehicle producer, Uralvagonzavod, no longer works at full capacity, having moved to a four day workweek, and is in arrears on paying wages. The huge overhang of debt that Russian Defense Industrial Base companies have accumulated during this war (which the Government forced them to borrow, and the banks to lend, to keep it off the Government’s books, that were already running growing deficits), at the high interest rates in Russia, make those companies increasingly financially infeasible.

Russia has been living far beyond its means during this war, liquidating its financial reserves and stored Military inventories, doubling its money supply by printing rubles, and loading its banking system with increasingly risky debt loads.

Now Russia’s economy is entering recession, its oil revenues have collapsed due to low prices, large discounts (sub $40 price for Urals crude now, below their average breakeven cost), and President Trump’s 23 October sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Rosneft (the Russian National Oil Company) has dipped into loss-making during November, in a seismic shift for Russia’s income.

Russia has kicked the can down the road on its war costs in many ways, but those bills are coming due.

[BeauBo]

“”500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. [...] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.” While the numbers are inexact, the general theme is not”

Very true.

President Trump has already made historic improvements in getting Europe to shoulder the cost of its own defense (and prescription drugs, and trade, etc.), with the 5% of GDP requirement.

The free ride on the back of American taxpayers just never sun-setted after the Marshall plan - until now.

[dfwgator]

“If I go there will be trouble/And if I stay it will be double”

[dennisw]

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ukraine+explosion

 

[dennisw]

[dennisw]

“European countries cutting themselves off from cheap Russian oil is the destroying their economies and industrial base.”

Putin has used oil and gas supply as a weapon for 2x decades. He is an unreliable little turd and a warmonger. Bad Vlad wants to reconstitute the old USSR. Problem is that no nation wants to live under the Russian boot. For secure energy Europe has to look elsewhere. Norway has replaced Russia as the main gas supplier to Europe.

This would not be the case if the billionaire Russian oligarchs were in charge. They are apolitical and are only interested in making money. AKA selling hydrocarbons to Europe, minus Tsar Putin’s monkey business.

Putin has a Napoleon complex, he is the only idiot in Russia that wanted to invade Ukraine.