Mearsheimer: Europe’s Bleak Future

The American Conservative ^ | 11/18/25 | John Mearsheimer

[EnderWiggin1970]

This address was delivered to the European Parliament in Brussels on November 11, 2025.

Europe is in deep trouble today, mainly because of the Ukraine war, which has played a key role in undermining what had been a largely peaceful region. Unfortunately, the situation is not likely to improve in the years ahead. In fact, Europe is likely to be less stable moving forward than it is today.

The present situation in Europe stands in marked contrast to the unprecedented stability that Europe enjoyed during the unipolar moment, which ran from roughly 1992, after the Soviet Union collapsed, until 2017, when China and Russia emerged as great powers, transforming unipolarity into multipolarity. We all remember Francis Fukuyama’s famous 1989 article—“The End of History?”—which argued that liberal democracy was destined to spread across the world, bringing peace and prosperity in its wake. That argument was obviously dead wrong, but many in the West believed it for more than 20 years. Few Europeans imagined in the heyday of unipolarity that Europe would be in so much trouble today.

So, what went wrong?

The Ukraine war, which I will argue was provoked by the West, and especially the U.S., is the principal cause of Europe’s insecurity today. Nevertheless, there is a second factor at play: the shift in the global balance of power in 2017 from unipolarity to multipolarity, which was sure to threaten the security architecture in Europe. Still, there is good reason to think this shift in the distribution of power was a manageable problem. But the Ukraine war, coupled with the coming of multipolarity, guaranteed big trouble, which is not likely to go away in the foreseeable future.

Let me start by explaining how the end of unipolarity threatens the foundations of European stability...

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TOPICS: Culture/Society; European Union; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: europe; nato; russia; ukraine

[rktman]

Gone......

[PGR88]

The Ukraine war, which I will argue was provoked by the West, and especially the U.S., is the principal cause of Europe’s insecurity today.

I think the record is clear, particularly after Trump's re-election - EUROPE (particularly EU elites in Davos, Brussels and the London) provoked this war, and have strong interest to see it continue

Yes, Europe had Atlanticist allies and even agents in the DC Deep State, and in US academia, think tanks, and USA media who were also gung-ho to use Ukraine as a proxy against Russia

But is 100% clear - as soon as Trump began to back down, Europe continued to talk more money, more weapons, more escalation. Its now clear they wanted this war.

[Navy Patriot]

Mearsheimer: Europe’s Bleak Future

Excellent!

I can't think of a better place to have a Bleak Future.

Europeans should have chosen their overseers more wisely.

[PAR35]

Well, this is an excellent job of missing the elephant in the room.

"mainly because of the Ukraine war, which has played a key role in undermining what had been a largely peaceful region."

[montag813]

Mearsheimer has always been obsessed with Jews and Israel. So of course even in a speech that is supposed to be about the "future of Europe" he talks only about Ukraine, and bizarrely sticks this reference about Israel which makes no sense:

There is another important dimension, which has little to do with the global balance of power, that further reduces the likelihood the U.S. will remain committed to maintaining a significant military presence in Europe. Specifically, the U.S. has a special relationship with Israel that has no parallel in recorded history. That connection, which is the result of the tremendous power of the Israel lobby in the U.S., not only means that American policymakers will support Israel unconditionally, but it also means that the U.S. will involve itself in Israel’s wars, either directly or indirectly. In short, the US will continue to allocate substantial military resources to Israel as well as commit substantial military forces of its own to the Middle East. This obligation to Israel creates an additional incentive to draw down U.S. forces in Europe and push European countries to provide for their own security.

And Mearsheimer has NOTHING whatsoever to say about the disastrous Islamic migrant crisis that is the biggest threat to "Europe's future." He never does. Because Because his Qatari paymasters might object.

[webheart]

Dude, it’s Islam, mmmkay? The Muslims are reproducing way faster than their countries can sustain so they have to migrate to other lands. Unfortunately we are not territorial enough as a species.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

-— “Europe is in deep trouble today, mainly because of” .... now-expensive energy, the ongoing costs of an ‘officially’ non-NATO war, the importation of migrants, mostly Muslims, and the unsustainable costs of the welfare state and a massive, invasive bureaucracy atop it all.

Taken together, this is not a one-two blow. It's a hammering of its "liberal" pride and policies. In slow motion until it isn't....

[Midwesterner53]

The banishment of Christianity in favor of Islam with massive immigration is a far bigger threat than the war. The war will eventually end and Putin will eventually face an unpleasant end but there is no end in site to the Islam invasion.

[sphinx]

On the Muslim problem: the Muslims are still a relatively small minority in most European countries, though they have concentrated in a few major cities, have lots of children, and will present a growing threat going forward.

But at this point, Europe could still take effective action.

What has led to despair, however, is the now obvious reality that, outside of a few Eastern European countries, the ruling European political class — both in the EU and in the member states — does not have the backbone to lift a finger. Worse, they seem to be in a competition to see who can surrender fastest. They clearly hate Christianity and consider Islam a useful ally. They have grown weary of the commitment to excellence embedded in what we used to quaintly call Western Civilization and are all-in on cultural deconstruction. They have nothing but contempt for their own nations’ history, culture and traditions. And they hold their own citizens in contempt, fear them at the polls, and are engaged in a broad conspiracy to thwart any nationalist or populist resistance.

Europe’s elites have gone over to the enemy. THAT’s the problem.

[MeganC]

“Europeans should have chosen their overseers more wisely.”

Well, at least they got rid of the accursed Russians.