Posted on 11/10/2025 12:22:40 PM PST by libh8er
Ever since OpenAI’s ChatGPT was introduced in November 2022, experts and executives have been predicting that it and other AI models will eliminate untold jobs — forecasts that seem, at a first glance, to have been borne out by the plethora of tech sector layoffs in the wake of its debut.
But a new study from Yale University found quite the opposite in the United States, which should give anxious workers some relief as it goes against the hyped up prognostications of many tech CEOs.
“While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative,” reads the study from Yale’s Budget Lab, a policy research center on economics.
The research team analyzed job data from the past 33 months since ChatGPT was released, the employment status of college graduates, and how exposed various groups of workers are to AI tech, among other questions.
In one analysis, they compared three different groups of workers who have varying levels of exposure to AI technology — high, middle or low — and tracked any changes in their share of the workforce since ChatGPT went public. If AI is having any impact at all, you’d expect a decrease in the high and middle exposure groups, but that simply wasn’t the case. In fact, the percentage in each category hasn’t budged much, suggesting that AI is essentially a non-factor, at least so far.
In another analysis, the Yale team looked at the rate of change in the composition of the American labor force and compared that data to two separate time periods: when computers started gaining wider usage circa 1984 and the explosion in internet entrepreneurship beginning around 1996. The idea was to measure whether AI is transforming the workforce in a historically resonant way.
Surprisingly, they found that the rate of change in the labor market’s makeup in the wake of AI closely matches the pace when computers and the internet were first taking off. In other words, AI doesn’t appear to be more disruptive than those two technologies — at least so far — despite heavy hitters like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei saying that AI will cause massive upheaval in the world and that entire sectors of jobs will be lost forever.
In an analysis of college graduates, the Yale researchers compared the occupational mix — the spread of workers across different jobs in the labor market, essentially — of young adults ages 20 to 24 years old, and compared them to older workers ages 25 to 34.
Starting from the time they graduate from college, they found the occupational mix for both the younger and older cohort match closely. This suggests that AI isn’t having much of an impact on recent college graduates if you compare them to the older group at a similar period of their lives; however, the last several months shows a deviation in this pattern — of about six percentage points — that could be due to our current not-so-hot job market. (Or, just maybe, it’s showing that AI is starting to affect the labor market.)
“The picture of AI’s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level,” the study reads.
But what explains the depressing job market — most starkly illustrated in a viral chart on X, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showing the number of position openings cratering since ChatGPT was released? And what about early career jobs, which seem scarce these days, to the chagrin of recent graduates?
Some think that the softening in the job market should instead be attributed to the US Federal Reserve putting a kibosh to the era of zero interest-rate policy in 2022. Before it ended, companies borrowed massive amounts of capital at cheap rates and plowed them into high-risk startups — thereby inflating assets, making lots of millionaires, and fueling a gold rush of well-paying tech positions. (Squint at that chart in the previous paragraph and it does seem to support this thesis, with the decline in openings coinciding more cleanly with the interest rate hike than the release of ChatGPT.)
As for early career positions decreasing, some experts think the phenomenon predates ChatGPT and could be a sign that there are simply more college graduates than there are early career jobs where a higher degree is a must, along with other structural changes.
And there are the headlines, which are littered with stories of people getting laid off due to AI — but maybe that’s a function of some CEOs jumping the gun and buying into the hype even though AI still leaves much to be desired in practice. That’s reflected in the uneven adoption of AI across industrial sectors.
“While generative AI looks likely to join the ranks of transformative, general purpose technologies,” the Yale study reads, “It is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs.”
.
YouTube is full of AI. Creators are getting pushed out.
Music is finished.
Even if the music is created by real musicians, I will assume from now on the lyrics were generated by AI, by just entering a prompt that describes the kind of song.
“Music is finished.
Even if the music is created by real musicians, I will assume from now on the lyrics were generated by AI, by just entering a prompt that describes the kind of song.”
A lot of lyrics written by humans are really dumb. AI can’t be much worse.
They’re more accurate because they are scared of losing their jobs after seeing 60% of their colleagues get canned for being lazy
image processing front end. and the study of drivers. AI’s basically decide what do based on what it has been taught to do.
basically, here’s the present state. look at millions of the same situation to learn what the possible moves are, and aren’t.
based on the prompt do a possible move.
it’s more complicated with the compounds. that involves a customized search engine based on a specific task. traditional algorithms are in play from what i’ve read.
now, the important part.
AI’s give our ruling class an excuse to compile complete databases on everything about you and me in order to, ‘they say,’ make them work better.
so your DNA your heath info will be used to design new cancer drugs. your lifestyle tracked info will be used to confine your activities to what is good for you. etc., etc.
AI and corporations will kill many jobs as these Corporate empty suits have bought into the fad of AI will cure the need for living Americans working but AI is only as good as the creators of AI and in time they will realize after much pain and suffering of the people they let go they really do need Staff working.
“image processing front end. and the study of drivers. AI’s basically decide what do based on what it has been taught to do.”
Hmm. Not exactly the search engine you said AI was.
“traditional algorithms are in play from what i’ve read.”
Nope. AI sorts through possible combinations directing its search torward optimal solutions.
ok, bud. there are different flavors. LLM’s are the main one’s people are familiar with. i don’t expect every one to have an engineering/computer sci/math background to know all the different flavors of cyborg. come on dude.
Nope, it’s a mix. unless you are reading a different paper.
citation please.
Citation please.
“ok, bud. there are different flavors.”
You said only one, basically ...
“traditional algorithms are in play from what i’ve read.”
Citation, please.
ok, bud. i’ll send you mind (when i get time, i’m working). you send me yours. i’m curious to she what you got.
That term is too kind.
How many managers in companies would say they DON’T need bigger budgets or more people?
It’s always been the case, in my experience, to rarely have a big enough budget with enough people to do what really needs to be done. Maybe you have barely enough...
AI is just allowing people to do more of the “if we had more people” work, it accelerates things, making existing people more productive.
E.g. there’s not enough software developers to develop all the code that is needed to be written. Employers will just expect more productivity from each developer. It’s not all about layoffs. It’s a tool.
“image processing front end. and the study of drivers. AI’s basically decide what do based on what it has been taught to do.”
There are an infinite number of situations that could be presented. It can’t be taught what to do for every situation.
First it must, just like a human, process the images to define the environment.
They are slop when generating content with fake voice such as countdown videos and rehashing historical stuff.
They are also some of the funniest ones also with Bigfoot and Star Wars videos.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.