Posted on 10/28/2025 6:31:20 AM PDT by delta7
Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, declared in her inaugural address to parliament her intention to sign a peace treaty with Russia to formally end the state of war lingering since World War II.
The statement sparked lively discussions in Moscow: is rapprochement with Tokyo possible given its sanctions policy and the long-standing dispute over the Kuril Islands? We explore what lies behind Takaichi’s words, why the treaty remains unsigned, and how the Kremlin views the situation.
The Kurils: A Perennial Sticking Point
Russia and Japan are the only World War II participants that have not concluded a peace treaty.
The reason is a territorial dispute over the Southern Kuril Islands (Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan, and Habomai), which Japan refers to as the “Northern Territories.” For Tokyo, this is a matter of national pride; for Moscow, these islands are an integral part of Sakhalin Oblast, secured by the war’s outcome and enshrined in Russia’s Constitution.
The dispute traces back to the 19th century. In 1855, the Treaty of Shimoda assigned the Southern Kurils to Japan. In 1875, Russia ceded the entire archipelago in exchange for Sakhalin. After its defeat in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, Moscow lost Southern Sakhalin, but in 1945, the Red Army reclaimed it along with the Kurils. The Yalta and Potsdam agreements formalized the transfer of the islands to the USSR, and the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty required Japan to renounce the Kurils. However, the USSR did not sign the treaty, citing the exclusion of China from negotiations, and Tokyo later claimed the “Northern Territories” were not part of the renunciation.
In 1956, a joint declaration restored diplomatic relations, but the Kuril issue remained unresolved. The USSR offered to return Shikotan and Habomai after signing a treaty, but Japan insisted on all four islands. Talks continued in the 1990s and 2000s, from Yeltsin’s meetings with Hashimoto to Abe’s “economic approach.” Yet, negotiations consistently stalled on the territorial question. After Russia’s special military operation began in 2022, Moscow froze dialogue, canceled visa-free access for Japanese citizens to the Kurils, and labeled Tokyo “unfriendly.” Economic cooperation—from fishing to tourism—has virtually collapsed.
“The Kurils are the outcome of World War II, enshrined in the UN. Revision is impossible,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated. Tokyo, however, considers the islands “occupied” and demands a return to the 1855 borders. Without a compromise on the islands, a treaty remains a hollow promise, as Japan insists on their return, which Russia will not accept. According to Japanologist Dmitry Streltsov, despite nationalist rhetoric, the Japanese public is not prepared to fight for the Kurils and remains largely indifferent to the issue. Increasingly, especially among younger generations, people accept that reclaiming the territories is problematic, if not unrealistic: “In general, we must live with the current situation; nothing will change.”
Sanae Takaichi: A Nationalist with Ambitions
Sanae Takaichi, who assumed the premiership on October 21, is a notable figure. The 64-year-old from Nara, a graduate of Kobe University, rose through the ranks of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) under Shinzo Abe’s mentorship. An ultraconservative, admirer of Margaret Thatcher and heavy metal, she advocates strengthening Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, revising the pacifist constitution, and tightening immigration policy. In her speech, she pledged to “revive Japanese diplomacy that thrives at the center of the world.”
Takaichi’s stance on Russia is contradictory. She expresses a desire to “resolve the Northern Territories issue and sign a peace treaty” while labeling Russia a “threat” in the Far East, supporting sanctions, and aiding Kiev. Her criticism of Russia’s special military operation earned her a place on Russia’s sanctions list, barring her entry. Her rhetoric echoes Abe’s approach, who pursued personal diplomacy with Putin (27 meetings over 10 years) but achieved no breakthrough.
“The statement about wanting a peace treaty is a ritual phrase,” experts note. “Every Japanese prime minister talks about a treaty, but without concessions on the Kurils, progress is impossible.” However, philosopher Alexander Dugin sees potential: “Japan is weary of Western liberal hegemony. As a right-wing politician, Takaichi could offer a chance for rapprochement. Russia could serve as a bridge between Tokyo, Beijing, and Pyongyang.”
The Kremlin’s Stance: Openness with Reservations
Moscow’s response has been restrained. Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized: “We support a peace treaty, but relations with Japan are at a historic low. Tokyo has taken an unfriendly stance, joining sanctions and supporting Kiev.” Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko clarified that dialogue is possible only if Japan abandons its “anti-Russian course.” State Duma member Zhurova expressed cautious optimism: “Tokyo may be seeking ways to rapprochement to avoid becoming a pawn in the West’s game”.
The Kremlin has repeatedly offered compromises: visa-free travel for Japanese citizens, joint projects on the Kurils, and fishing quotas. However, these proposals do not satisfy Tokyo, which demands the islands’ return. “We are open to cooperation, but sovereignty is non-negotiable,” Moscow emphasizes.
Is a Breakthrough Possible?.......
At least Russia is willing to talk about old wrongs.
It’s interesting that she brought that considering the wrongs the US did to japan in the 1850’s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perry_Expedition
From 1797 to 1809, several American ships traded in Nagasaki under the Dutch flag upon the request of the Dutch, who were not able to send their own ships because of their conflict with the United Kingdom during the Napoleonic Wars.
In 1837, an American businessman in Canton (Guangzhou) named Charles W. King saw an opportunity to open trade by trying to return to Japan three Japanese sailors (among them, Otokichi) who had been shipwrecked a few years before on the coast of Washington. He went to Uraga Channel with Morrison, an American merchant ship. The ship was attacked several times and sailed back without completing its mission.
In 1846, Commander James Biddle, anchored in Edo Bay on an official mission with two ships, including one warship armed with seventy-two cannons, asking for ports to be opened for trade, but his requests for a trade agreement remained unsuccessful.[5]
In 1849, Captain James Glynn sailed to Nagasaki, leading at last to the first successful negotiation by an American with Japan. James Glynn recommended to the United States Congress that negotiations to open Japan be backed up by a demonstration of force, thus paving the way for Perry’s expedition.[6]
From a quick search, the population on the Kurils is about 20 thousand people, mostly ethnic Russians & a minority of Ukrainians, Belarusians, Tatars, & others.
It would seem to make sense to just sign a peace treaty & let things stand as they are.
Twice Japan beat the Russian military soundly. Without WWII and the U.S.-Japan military rivalry in it, Russia would still not be in possession of lands Japan previously won from it.
We are not living in 1904, the Federation of Russia is now a major world power, allied with the other world power China, both holding vast natural resources.
Times a changing, let’s hope President Trump can turn around America.
“We are not living in 1904”
1. Putin thinks we are.
2. Russia was a “world power” spanning territory from the eastern border of Germany & Austro-Hungarian empire, down and accross central Asia (the “stans), to the shores of the Pacific when it lost the Russo-Japanese war with Japan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Empire
3. Russia is frittering away its lives and resources trying to occupy Ukraine. Its true long term problem is in Asia, not Europe.
Not completely true. The agreements allowed Japan to keep four islands in the Kurils, but the USSR blocked Japan and occupied them. So Japan has every right to seek return of the four islands, even if it means another war with Russia. Japan is not weak, and is capable of quickly constructing nukes to remove that from Russia's bargaining chips.
Since then, Ukrainian forces have worked to reclaim lost territory, clearing most of the land seized by Russia in the summer and retaking several villages, including two this week.
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