Posted on 07/07/2025 1:50:39 AM PDT by george76
Death count in Independence Day flooding in central Texas has now surpassed that of Hurricane Harvey..
As the death count in the Independence Day flooding in central Texas has now surpassed that of Hurricane Harvey, with dozens of children reported dead and missing who were camping at Camp Mystic in Kerr County, Texans are asking why a warning system wasn't in place and why the camp didn’t evacuate when others did.
On Wednesday and Thursday, a series of emergency weather alerts were issued by the National Weather Service and Texas Division of Emergency Management.
Despite a decades-long history of flash floods in the Texas Hill Country, and a 1987 flash flood that killed 10 teenagers at a Christian Camp in neighboring Kendall County, Kerr County didn’t have an emergency warning system in place.
This legislative session, a bill to create a coordinated emergency warning system and provide grant funding for rural communities died in the Republican-controlled Senate.
The NWS-Austin/San Antonio issued a Flood Watch Wednesday for several counties, including Kerr County; the NWS San Angelo also issued a flood watch for several counties.
Also on Wednesday, TDEM activated state emergency response resources through 10 state agencies anticipating increased threats of flooding in West and Central Texas ahead of the holiday weekend.
“According to the National Weather Service, heavy rainfall with the potential to cause flash flooding is anticipated across West Texas and the Hill Country beginning tonight and is expected to last a few days. Texans are encouraged to monitor local forecasts and avoid driving or walking into flooded areas,” TDEM said. The next day, it escalated state emergency operations readiness and activated additional resources.
At 1:14 am on Friday, the NWS Austin/San Antonio issued a “life threatening flash flooding” warning for Bandera and Kerr counties, stating, “Some locations that will experience flash flooding include, Kerrville, Ingram, Hunt, Waltonia, Kerr Wildlife Management Area and Lost Maples State Natural Area.”
The NWS also had five people on duty, more than the standard two, to deliver forecasts for its Austin/San Antonio office covering the region, Jason Runyen, a NWS meteorologist, said.
“These warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,” AccuWeather, which also issued reports on Thursday, citing NWS alerts, said.
By 4 a.m. on Friday, heavy rain caused the Guadeloupe River to rise by more than 26 feet in less than an hour resulting in a flash flood that tore through structures, wiped out RV parks, camper vans and cabins where vacationers or residents were sleeping.
At a news conference on Friday, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said he didn’t know why Camp Mystic and other camps in the county weren’t evacuated.
“Why weren't these camps evacuated?” a reporter asked.
“I can't answer that,” the judge replied. “I don't know.”
“You're the judge … the top official here in this county. … There's kids missing. These camps were in harm's way,” the reporter said.
The judge replied that no one knew “this kind of flood was coming. We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States and we deal with floods on a regular basis. When it rains, we get water. We had no reason to believe that this was going to be any anything like what's happened.”
On Sunday, Kelly said that several years ago, county officials considered implementing a flood warning system that would function like a tornado warning siren, before he was elected, but never did.
KXAN first reported that county officials didn’t issue warnings until four hours after the NWS alerts, after 5 a.m. and 7 a.m., well after an untold number of people had already been swept away.
The Texas House, under former Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, sought to address crisis communication failures at the local and state level last year.
After a disastrous state response to the Panhandle Wildfires, which destroyed more than 1.2 million acres and caused more than $1 billion in economic losses, the Texas House launched an investigation and proposed solutions. State Rep. Phil King introduced a bill to provide grant funding for rural community emergency alert systems and streamline and improve first responder communications. It passed the House with bipartisan support, with 16 Republicans voting against it, only to die in the Senate Finance Committee.
It remains unclear why Camp Mystic didn’t evacuate children on Thursday after the first NWS and TDEM warnings were issued. Mo-Ranch Camp near Hunt moved several hundred campers and attendees to higher ground; nearby Camps Rio Vista and Sierra Vista ended their summer session early on Thursday.
As of Sunday afternoon, authorities in Kerr County had found the bodies of 40 adults and 28 children; 10 campers are still missing.
bkmk
BTTT
“This legislative session, a bill to create a coordinated emergency warning system and provide grant funding for rural communities died in the Republican-controlled Senate.”
Which wouldn’t have helped, due to timing, but should have been done earlier.
Since it died in the State Senate, they may pivot to Lt. Governor Patrick, who they’ve wanted to take down for decades now, as he runs the Senate. It’s a consolation prize if they can get him (although I doubt they’ll succeed), since the REAL PRIZE would be Attorney General Ken Paxton, who’s about to take out Cornyn...except there’s no way to pin this on Paxton. As far as Governor Abbott, he’s bulletproof.
I blame cell phones.
How is one supposed to tell the difference between a cell phone notifying you about your car warranty and one telling you to flee a catastrophic flood?
Warning sirens should be part of the landscape (e.g., solar powered and connected to upstream sensors).
The weather service isn’t blameless either. How many times have we heard the story that people don’t evacuate (hurricanes, etc.) because of the “boy who cried wolf” syndrome?
Who is awake at that time of the morning at a summer camp?
I think it's disgusting to point fingers of wrong doing for this tragedy at this point.
I think it’s disgusting to point fingers of wrong doing for this tragedy at this point.
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If, as I have heard, it’s a 500 year flood, there was nothing that could have been done.
Never had a Tornado Warning on your phone have you? Clearly no one was actually paying attention at this camp. Or more likely they didn’t have service. But FFS how do you not have a weather radio if that’s the case?
An adult who should have been monitoring the situation. Agree they could not stop the water. But SOMEONE in charge should have been “on watch.”
why Camp Mystic and other camps in the county weren’t evacuated.
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I bet the other camps that did end early are really glad they did. Sounds like the end of Camp Mystic.
why Camp Mystic and other camps in the county weren’t evacuated.
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I bet the other camps that did end early are really glad they did. Sounds like the end of Camp Mystic.
Why didn’t parents come to get their kids...
It is more like a 40 year flood. There was a big flood back in 87. From what I've read, it depends on where the rain falls and is funneled to. It is possible the South Fork of the river didn't get hit back in 87, but the North Fork did. The river gage is located where the South and North Forks converge..
weather service is to blame for “cried wolf” syndrome??...sorry bro, you choose to ignore warnings, thats on you. Forecasting is far from an exact science and everybody knows that. Quite sure they dont issues warnings just for giggles. Weird comment.
“Who is awake at that time of the morning at a summer camp?”
There should ALWAYS be someone awake and alert at a place where young children are sleeping. On Fire Watch if nothing else. I stood watch, in a different context, for years.
It’s so tragic. The 70 yr old owner of the camp died trying to save the girls. For whatever reason, they weren’t proactive like the other nearby camps that evacuated people on Thurs.
Terribly sad.
the destruction is incredible. De-barked trees, etc. In terms of historic weather events/flash floods, this is right up there with the 1969 “Hurricane Camille” flash floods in Virginia. No way something like this can be predicted..geez.
“How many times have we heard the story that people don’t evacuate (hurricanes, etc.) because of the “boy who cried wolf” syndrome?”
Not only the weather service but the weather channel. They hype everything possible to inflict fear. People soon realized it’s nothing but democrat style sensationalistic bullshit and move on.
“ How many times have we heard the story that people don’t evacuate (hurricanes, etc.) because of the “boy who cried wolf” syndrome?”
Don’t go there.
Their job is to notify of situations that have potential danger .
For example “today the atmosphere is very unstable and all the ingredients for tornados are there . Heads up”
It’s our job to watch
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