Where’s the much-hoped-for organic Iranian regime change?

American Thinker ^ | 06/24/2025 | Norman Krieg

[SeekAndFind]

Last week, I made a slightly bold prediction that the Iranian mullah regime would fall somewhere between June 17 and 24. The predicate was that, since the end of WW2, the US Deep State (along with its Cold War enemy, the USSR, for the first half of that period) has been managing the world’s regions by situating relatively equal forces in opposition to each other. This keeps regional conflicts at a low-simmering boil, which is controlled and limited—and, most importantly, restricted from overflowing beyond the region and thrusting the world into WW3.

Further, this strategy, while noble and even successful, may have been a bit of a ruse from Day One, and certainly, is in many ways, one today. This “Regional-Balance” strategy is a financial boon for certain American and multinational interests: the weapons manufacturing industry, the reconstruction industry, the smugglers, grifters, and grafters, all of whom benefit from perpetual, managed conflict.

This brings us to Iran-Israel. A twelve-day war has seemingly culminated, at least for now, in ceasefire, the last act being a farcical, coordinated reprisal strike by Iran on American interests in Qatar. But what hasn’t happened is a regime change. Where did I go wrong?

The weak link was almost certainly Iranian dissidents and average, on-the-ground Iranians. Many, including me, had assumed that they were ready, courageous, even suicidal-ish. Thus, they would rise up, organically, once they saw the regime shamed again and again.

This assumption may have been shared by the Israelis and some of the Trump administration. And indeed, the Shah’s son was positioned to lead an organic revolution and overthrow of the mullahs and IRGC.

However, it turns out that this assumption was based on two miscalculations.

First, it missed the level of fear instilled by a 46-year-old regime of psychological and physical torture.

[SeekAndFind]

So, the average Iranian, still living in the country, has made a modus vivendi of sorts with the regime. Apparently, a lot of the middle-class and wealthy live comfortable lives, work moderate hours, and generally benefit from a very oil-rich country.

For them, Islamic fundamentalist strictures are more of an annoyance than a debilitating code. Women adapt to covering their hair in fashionable garb, while men adapt to occasional performative prayer or whatever else is required of them. And the poor, especially the Shia, still somewhat appreciate the regime.

[SeekAndFind]

There realy is no real resistance leader. It seems that yesterday morning, the Shah’s son was granted one last chance. Prince Reza Pahlavi would broadcast an offer to the regime henchmen to defect and call for the citizens to demonstrate.

But the son of the Shah was not quite persuasive enough. Or perhaps he is a bit toxic, or maybe he’s just an unimposing figure for the Iranians to follow. Add to that (unconfirmed) reports of wholesale killings of actual dissidents on the streets, and the chance was lost.

[toddausauras]

I really think technology makes revolutions even more difficult. Look at Canada, they’re being held hostage by a globalist juggernaut...same with almost all of the west. Technology was very foolish to pursue so blindly.

[DesertRhino]

The Shah’s son is a grifter and an idiot. A very poor choice.

But the regime change is coming. Trump kicked out the supports of the mullahs. Like a building being demolished, it takes a moment, but it collapses on it’s own weight.
That horror regime is coming down. They are probably going to skip the monarchy part.

As for a resistance leader, it will be a mass movement that develops. There was no opposition leader when Romania turned on Ceausescu. The tipping point will be when some military formation turns and joins a movement, refuses an order to shoot, etc.

But it’s coming. I think this is going to be a Trump 3D chess move. And in a few months, maybe a few weeks the world is gonna change because of his move that simultaneously fatally weakened the mullahs, and put Netanyahu on a leash.

[NoLibZone]

iran is made up of many different groups and ethnicities

Only dictatorships can govern in such situations.

[lewislynn]

Where’s the much-hoped-for organic Iranian regime change?

Post the link where someone, besides a dimwit from "American Thinker" or Freerepublic ,said such a ("organic") thing.

[ifinnegan]

Bingo.

[A strike]

“Where’s the much-hoped for organic Iranian regime change? “

Trump says he doesn’t care for it.

[1066AD]

Some writers are too impatient.

This is like the incessant comments after Jan 20 about Kash and Bondi “Where are the indictments, When is the xxx going to be declassified ... things are rarely that quick.

However, fast action in a time of confusion can work, look at how boldly the Bolsheviks made their moves in 1917 despite being a small minority.

[FreedomForce]

Regime change is much hoped for, but I’m surprised anyone would predict it happening anytime soon.

[The Duke]

I don’t think it’s so much technology as it is probably a lack of guns.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

People think this is going to happen in 2 days? That’s silly.

[VanShuyten]

“Last week, I made a slightly bold prediction that the Iranian mullah regime would fall ...”

That’s because he’s a fabulist. There were no protests by the populace or journalists, no military defiance, and no clerics in opposition. I’m sure there are some there who wish for regime change, but the Shah and SAVAK aren’t even close to the savage control the clerics, the Basij, and the IRG have over the populace. The Shah never hanged homos from cranes and never imprisoned women for not wearing hijabs. The present Iranian regime is as stable as Stalin’s or Mao’s. That’s the reality libs refuse to see.

Libs call Pres. Trump a fascist, but refuse to recognize the evil dictatorships that are right now.

[piasa]

Good grief... this isn’t fast food.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Well, I expected the Iranian people to take this opportunity to get rid of the mullahs. If they dont then they’re the ones that have to suffer not me. As long as they don’t get a nuke so be it.

[toddausauras]

Definitely a factor!

[null and void]

This was posted here 6/24

Unconfirmed report

🚨 BREAKING: Clashes BEGIN In Iran As IRGC Deploy Troops

[Jonty30]

You can thank Quebec for that, mostly. And Toronto.

[nathanbedford]

As long as they don’t get a nuke

The odds are that without a regime change, they will get a nuke. Rather than undercut those who would depose the mullahs with ill considered remarks that we don't want regime change, rather than restraining the Israelis from continuing a free ranging air war to raise the stakes high enough for an uprising to be irresistible, such as crippling the electrical grid, our policy is to return the status quo anti-until they get that bomb back.

The Islamicist fanatics are simply not going to rest while we take bows and lobby for a peace prize.

[mabarker1]

Those idiots in the sandbox have been at war since the beginning of time and the only way to stop them is nuke the entire sector into a big piece of glass, wait 50 or 100 years and then bulldoze it back into sand and make a vacation resort out of it.

And AMERICA will run the place and collect the money for all the trouble We had to deal with over the decades...