Thailand’s Government Seems on the Verge of Collapse—Again

TIME ^ | 06/22/25 | Chad De Guzman

[SeekAndFind]

Domestic regime change is no stranger to Thailand, which has had at least 12 successful coups and 31 Prime Ministers since the founding of its current constitutional monarchy in 1932—itself the product of a coup.

It’s for that reason that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took over after her fellow Pheu Thai party predecessor Srettha Thavisin was ousted from power last year, has sought to insulate the government against military takeovers, which have typically occurred in coordination with conservative, royalist elites. It’s likely, however, that she’s failed.

Amid an escalating crisis sparked by border tensions with neighbor Cambodia, experts and observers of Thai politics tell TIME that Paetongtarn is all but certain to be deposed within months, if not imminently. She would follow in the path of her father, divisive but influential Thai power broker and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as her aunt, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who were both forced out of office early in 2006 and 2014, respectively.

Whether by coup or political maneuvering, how exactly Paetongtarn may leave remains to be seen. But Thailand’s increasingly likely change in leadership—and the uncertainty that inevitably will follow—comes at a trying time of both economic headwinds and geopolitical challenges, threatening to throw the country into further instability.

Here’s what to know.

How we got here

Srettha—and by extension Paetongtarn—only attained the premiership through a faustian bargain after 2023’s election saw the progressive, pro-reform Move Forward party receive the most votes but just shy of the majority needed to form the government. Pheu Thai, a populist party that placed second and was initially seen to be more aligned with Move Forward, partnered instead with conservative minority parties, including pro-military forces it had campaigned against, to form a coalition of unlikely allies.

Now, that coalition is splintering apart.

[NEMDF]

Thailand? (an old FR joke or something)

[tumblindice]

Bangcock?

[BradyLS]

…Oriental city.

That might be the punchline. I dunno…

[NEMDF]

Something about Jonbenet Ramsey, and they found a possible suspect in Thailand, IIRC.

[Waverunner]

Phou Eey, a Hong Kong expat and martial artist will be the next prime minister.

[tired&retired]

China runs her neighbors.

[dfwgator]

Siam?

[BradyLS]

Number One Superguy

[ducttape45]

Been hearing from many that Thailand was a good place for expats to retire. I find that hard to believe with stuff like this going on.

[VanShuyten]

Does the King agree?

[Allegra]

Somebody had to do it. 😁

[central_va]

I hope there is a “happy ending”.

[Sirius Lee]

He number one superguy long time.

[Waverunner]

Spot on

[NEMDF]

I am glad to know that I am not the only FReeper to remember. LOL

[SunkenCiv]

Amid an escalating crisis sparked by border tensions with neighbor Cambodia, experts and observers of Thai politics tell TIME that Paetongtarn is all but certain to be deposed within months, if not imminently. She would follow in the path of her father, divisive but influential Thai power broker and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as her aunt, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who were both forced out of office early in 2006 and 2014, respectively.

The capital of Thailand should be named Bow.