Click here: to donate by Credit Card
Or here: to donate by PayPal
Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794
Thank you very much and God bless you.
Posted on 04/28/2025 6:31:39 AM PDT by Hieronymus
338Canada Federal Projection
Latest update: April 28, 2025
Popular vote projection LPC 43% ± 4%▲ CPC % ± 4% NDP 8% ± 2%▼ BQ 6% ± 1% Greens 2% ± 1% 338Canada vote projection | April 28, 2025
Seat projection | 172 seats for a majority LPC 186▼ [144-222] CPC 124▼ [90-164] BQ 23 [13-33] NDP 9▲ [2-15] Greens 1 [0-3] 338Canada seat projection | April 28, 2025 The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean.
338Canada Odds of winning the most seats Liberals 85%▼ CPC 14%▲ Tie 1% Tie
(Excerpt) Read more at 338canada.com ...
Click here: to donate by Credit Card
Or here: to donate by PayPal
Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794
Thank you very much and God bless you.
Trending in the right direction, but not as fast as I would like
Ping Canada Ping
If you want on the Canada ping list Freepmail me, although there is no guarantee that it will be active after the election unless someone else has time.
FWIW the Conservatives are placed at 13% for a minority and 1% for a majority.
Truly not trying to be a wise guy, but I don’t understand. Is the ruling party going to retain a majority or not?
Where’s the CPC Number?
There is reason to suspect that the polls suffer from response bias and/or social acceptability bias. Support for the current government became partly a matter of national pride because Canadians didn’t appreciate the humor of Trump’s belittling former p.m. Justin Trudeau and Canada, and didn’t like having the Free Trade Agreement among Canada, Mexico and the United States unilaterally abrogated by the President of the United States on the basis of fentanyl coming across the U.S.-Canada border. Canadians united to fight back (”elbows up” in ice hockey). I don’t know that the Conservative Party candidate for p.m. made it clear enough that he, like any Canadian, would defend Canada. Plus, the new p.m. got rid of the hated carbon tax and had rebates sent to Canadians on April 1st. So, yes, I can see why the Liberals improved in the polls. But, in recent weeks, the polls have tightened up and maybe, just maybe, there’s a percent or two of Canadians who still say they support the Liberals out of patriotism who will revert to the Conservatives in the privacy of the voting booth. Bottom line: it would not be very surprising for the Conservatives to out-perform the polls.
Probably—as further posters point out there are arguments for the polls being off, which give some grounds for hope.
39%
Editing the thing was a pain, and it didn’t come out the way that I wanted.
Nice catch that that important piece of data ended up on the cutting room floor. Sorry
They have poll workers bringing ballot boxes back to their homes in Ontario, so I think it’s a foregone conclusion who will win.
Time for Alberta and Saskatchewan to leave
If I were a Conservative in Canada I would not be a Trump fan at this time. He did them no favors at all. Had he NOT started his tariff battles starting with Canada and Mexico before everyone else, and waited till after the Canadian elections, the Canadian Conservatives may have had a chance.
“and waited till after the Canadian elections“
There was no Canadian election called until a while after Trump was in office. It was a “snap” election, IIRC.
As an Albertan, I root for the Conservatives, though they aren’t particularly conservative (just not quite as left as the other supposedly mainstream parties), but if the Liberals get in Alberta will be a huge step closer to either separating or, my preference, joining the USA.
And I really want us to join the USA.
Appreciate your honesty. Of all the ones to miss in your copy & paste was Poilievre’s results. Thanks again for your justification.
Results are looking pretty good. Perhaps a weak minority liberal government that soon falls !
Perhaps Libs 10 short if 172 !
LIB. 162
CON. 149
BQ. 23
NDP. 8
GRN. 1
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.