Posted on 03/02/2025 1:28:09 PM PST by Hieronymus
Popular vote projection Conservatives 39% ± 4%▼ Liberals 33% ± 4%▲ NDP 14% ± 3% Bloc 7% ± 1%▼ Greens 4% ± 2% PPC 3% ± 2%▲ 338Canada vote projection | March 2, 2025 This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Seat projection | 172 seats for a majority Conservatives 160▼ [125-193] Liberals 139▲ [107-172] Bloc 28▼ [24-37] NDP 14▲ [6-19] Greens 2 [0-3] 338Canada seat projection | March 2, 2025
(Excerpt) Read more at 338canada.com ...
Most likely outcome is a Conservative win at the moment (almost seven in ten chance), but the Liberal vote efficiency is such that a Liberal minority is more likely than a Conservative minority and also more likely than a Conservative majority.
Ping Canada Ping
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I plan on keeping it going until at least the Federal Election.
Since Carney became the front runner the liberals have skyrocketed in the polls. I haven’t looked closely, but based on the podcast that Fournier did on Thursday, it is primarily at the expense of the NDP.
If anyone wants links to the podcast on you-tube, let me know.
I had hope for Pierre but he’s just another globalist. All in on immigration and Ukraine. He’d obviously be better than the pos Trudeau but not my much.
Pierre is sane but that is the best we can say. He is a globalist and on board with most of the woke BS. He seems to believe there are only two genders FWIW.
He’s as good as your going to get, from Canada.
At this point I’d give Carney even odds, and a Canuck who did Harvard undergrad Oxford grad and after being head of the Bank of Canada was made head of the Bank of England is just about as woke as you can get.
My eldest son is pretty gung-ho Poilievre, which is touching-—the optimism of youth not yet jaded by the cynicism generated by keen-eyed experience that often passes for wisdom.
I would give Poilievre a bit more credit for his private views than you do—but one can only do so much within the Canadian party establishment, even as leader. A politician must be politic.
As noted in A Man for All Seasons
(Cardinal 2) Sincerity is a good negotiating tactic, sometimes I use it myself
(Cardinal 1) Yes, but if both people decide to be sincere at the same time things can get so complicated
Sadly, PPC (which I support) is stuck at 3-5% of polling, and most of those voters are in safe Conservative seats. PPC is more similar to Trump than Conservatives, a little less strident on Canadian nationalism but otherwise same agenda.
The PPC leader max Bernier is a seasoned politician who was a Conservative cabinet minister in the 2006-2015 era. The rest of his stable of candidates have generally no political experience which is not necessarily a bad thing in Canada but of course it’s viewed as a negative. Also viewed as a negative is that any gains in PPC voting would come at expense of Conservatives, so the half of Con voters who might vote PPC (polling says half of Cons, or 23% of all voters would consider voting PPC) are afraid to enable Liberal or NDP distant second place candidates in their ridings to move up and win.
Perhaps if max Bernier could cut a deal, get himself and one other PPC candidate into parliament while standing down the rest of the PPC candidates, it would give the Conservatives about ten more seats (based on last election where PPC + CPC would have elected nine close second-place Cons). And it would get our populist-realist voice into parliament where it has been drowned out by accommodationist go-along-to-get- along Conservative approaches before Poilievre. I think he is a shade better than previous leadership but prone to reverting to the go-slow-globalist approach of previous leaders once in power.
We don’t want go-slow-globalism, we want a return to sanity, as you did before winning in Nov 2024.
Pray for a good result, we need divine intervention to improve the situation. Relations are not good between PPC and CPC after they tried to paint Bernier as a neo-Nazi in the last election.
The lib’s “skyrocketing “ in the polls is 100% driven by the CBC/CTV/Global cabal.
They go to lib enclaves and poll hard where the libs are already strong.
I don’t believe them as far as I can throw Newfoundland.
I’m not certain—there are a wide variety of polling firms. It is possible that they are all in cahoots-—but the overall averages of predictions are both quite close (about 2/3rd-3/4ths of the time) and get completely taken in occasionally (New Brunswick) that I find it hard to believe that it is all orchestrated.
When Mulroney, whose numbers were in the dumpster, was replaced by Campbell, the conservatives shot up in the polls temporarily. They came back to earth and finished with two seats——
but how much did Manning have to do with the numbers at various points?
For only two seats, I’d think to agree to stand down not in the other 341 but 50-100 seats chosen by the Conservatives.
There are many seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and at least a few in Ontario (I’m in one) where if the conservative vote were split evenly, the Liberals and NDP would be left fighting over third place rather than second-—and by fighting over those ridings the identity of the right can be better formed.
Ah yes, Mr. Manning, the man who brought us Dr. Keith (I’m a LIEberal masquerading as Reform) Martin. Martin was my MP, and I ran into him a few times in the grocery store.
Looked him up. Didn’t know him, but I’ve known a fair number of graduates from his high school-—including my (ex) father-in-law.
Why westerners elect Ontario carpet baggers is beyond me. We had the same problem in Oregon.
>>>The lib’s “skyrocketing “ in the polls is 100% driven by the CBC/CTV/Global cabal.
They know where their funding is from!
I almost never watch anything from these networks.
I am inclined to trust the polls as being a rough snapshot of the present, which is all the claim to be, but if Carney is being boosted by extremely favourable press before people are paying attention, the support could potentially easily dissolve as quickly as it formed.
That is lightly founded conjecture which I put out in hopes of someone else making distinctions or offering other points. I have come to know a couple of non-representative slivers of Canada well over 30+ years, but know enough to know I am no expert.
When looking at Canada at a National level you always have to add the Liberal (far left) and the NDP (insane left) support together. Despite the sorry state of Canada, Conservatives barely poll more than those two combined. This is why Canada is and will remain the world’s underachiever.
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