ARGT compared to SPY past 5 years
Posted on 01/18/2025 3:59:50 PM PST by george76
Argentina has recorded its first budget surplus barely a year into Javier Milei’s presidency for the first time in 14 years. .
“Today’s fiscal result must be understood as a landmark in our history,” Economy Minister Luis Caputo posted on X. “There is no more deficit in Argentina.”
...
According to the economy ministry, the country’s budget surplus for the entire year was 1.76 trillion pesos, or 0.3% of GDP. Meanwhile, there was a 10.41 trillion peso surplus, or 1.8% of GDP, in the primary fiscal balance, which does not include debt payments.
“Zero deficit is a reality,” Milei said on social media. “Promises are fulfilled.”
After assuming office in December 2023, Milei cut public spending in an attempt to curb raging inflation, which peaked at about 300% annually in April of last year.
The government’s fiscal anchor will continue to exist through 2025
Fiscal realism and limited government both work.
However, it takes discipline and guts to accomplish.
Somebody needs to give Trump a chainsaw on Monday.
“Primary budget” is the new buzzphrase. Well, not so new. The EU used it when talking about Greece.
It refers to everything excepting the item that is unfixable — debt. The debt doesn’t go away. It is still owed and still compounds. It is merely not talked about.
Expect talk of primary budgets from the US.
Soon.
Fine and dandy, BUT what happened to their Gold reserves? Something stinky going on, as some Argentinians suspect, sold out. Sold out to whom…” rumor” has it that Switzerland is refining their Gold into Comex good delivery bars to avoid a Comex failure to deliver….which if occurs pushes Gold way, way past $5k an ounce.
“The mystery of Argentina’s gold: Milei admits that it was transferred abroad, without specifying the quantities or destination…”
“Primary budget” is the new buzzphrase. Well, not so new. The EU used it when talking about Greece.
It refers to everything excepting the item that is unfixable — debt. The debt doesn’t go away. It is still owed and still compounds. It is merely not talked about.
Expect talk of primary budgets from the US.
Selling off our Gold reserves as Argentina may have done, puts a spike in President Trumps recovery plan. There is much, much more to this story.Stay tuned.
ARGT compared to SPY past 5 years
What is their overall debt load? Good for them to reach a year’s goal.
America's sovereign gold cannot be sold unless Congress authorizes it, which it has not.
Instead, the New York Fed has leased the gold to the bullion banks, who have sold it into the market to keep the price suppressed. There is a gentleman's agreement between the Fed and the bullion banks whereby the Fed promises not to demand return of the gold, which would cause a run on the gold bank and send the price to no-bid, i.e., infinity. This would in turn collapse the global monetary system.
The Fed and the bullion banks have shown great creativity over the past 45 years in keeping the game going.
Agreed. And when you start running a primary budget surplus, the interest owed on the debt have a chance to decline. Then you start circling UP, in the right direction.
It also takes somebody who thinks in longer terms than his public pension from having served in office. Good for him.
Hopefully, he can be an example to the rest of South America.
What must stop, will stop.
I would think that there are several levels of affordable debt.
First is where the debt increases at a pace slower than the overall GDP.
Then, the primary budget surplus, where the debt increases at a rate lower than the interest paid on the debt.
Then, there comes the point where the debt increases at a rate lower than inflation.
Then you get an actual budget surplus, where the debt no longer increases at all.
I think you missed the part about it being unfixable.
Argentina’s GDP is about $640B. You have to understand that nowadays everything possible is done to conceal things, and one of the techniques is expressing stuff as % of GDP.
So debt to GDP is about 112%. $717B.
But note that this excludes money owed to the IMF. $47Billion.
Regardless $717B at prevailing Argentine interest rates . . . people this is 30% per annum. Their interest payments are 34% of GDP.
For God’s sake, stop reading know nothing reporters and imagining it is good news. How can there be good news at 30% interest rates.
How did they get so high? Would you lend money to Argentina? What rate might entice you?
I would think that there are several levels of affordable debt.
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There is only one metric of DEBT, specifically the US debt. It can be $100 trillion, as long as we have BUYERS of our debt.
Question for today, how many banks, sovereign nations, pensions, etc… are buying our $36 Trillion? ( Treasuries, notes). How about the notes that are coming due? If we have buyers, we have no problems…..BUT we are seeing less buyers.
For the first time in my life, I consider it at least possible.
Hopefully, he can be an example to the rest of South America.
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Not IF he has sold off his country’s only Internationally stated Tier One Asset.
Every world’s Central Banks have been buying historic amounts of Gold ( presumably to shore up their liquidity in case of crisis)….if the meltdown occurs, Gold will be instrumental in recovery….no Gold? Crisis.
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