Latin America Can’t Let Its Guard Down on Venezuela-Guyana Tensions

World Politics Review ^ | Dec 9, 2024 | James Bosworth

[nickcarraway]

One year ago, Venezuela held a referendum to reaffirm its territorial claims on Guyana's Essequibo region. That ballot ended up being a preview of the country's stolen presidential election in July of this year. The turnout was so low that the electoral authorities lied about the results and never released the full vote tallies. While authorities claimed that 10 million votes were cast, independent analysts believe the number was fewer than 2 million, given the empty polling sites.

Immediately following the referendum in December 2023, President Nicolas Maduro began what many portrayed at the time as a march to war with Guyana. Venezuelan authorities changed the official map of the country to include Essequibo and threatened to prosecute any Venezuelans who used the old map. The Venezuelan government took a much more hostile tone toward its neighbor, insinuating at times that it would be willing to take Essequibo by force. To underscore the threat, the Venezuelan military engaged in exercises simulating an invasion along the border, built up border infrastructure and facilities, conducted naval patrols in the river that serves as a border, and moved Iranian-made missile boats closer to Guyana's Atlantic coast.

In response, Brazil deployed military personnel and equipment to its border with Venezuela, where the only road into the Essequibo region runs. The U.S. began sending diplomatic and military officials on regular visits to Guyana and at one point even moved an aircraft carrier close by and flew fighter jets over the country, all to reinforce Washington's partnership with Georgetown and make it clear to the Maduro regime that an invasion would not be tolerated. The Caribbean Community, or Caricom, and other regional organizations all issued statements backing Guyana's territorial integrity and attempting to push back against the Venezuelan aggression.

[Larry Lucido]

Just some advice. Don’t drink the Kool Aid.

[nickcarraway]

Hi-C?

[Iron Munro]

Let ‘em knock each other out...

It’s time for the USA government to stop trying to be the world’s sheriff and piggy bank.

We need to concentrate on cleaning up the Deep State rats nest here in America and get our own affairs in order.

let the Third World do what they will do.

As long as they keep their dysfunction away from America.

[nickcarraway]

I have a feeling Venezuela will get their butt’s kicked.

[hanamizu]

Since Guyana’s border with Venezuela was negotiated between Venezuela and the U.K., let the U.K. take a shot a dealing with the problem.

[nickcarraway]

I think the U.K. and Brazil, as well as the U.S. have put pressure on Venezuela.

Maduro may decide to wag the dog, but I don't think it will work out for him. I have a feeling the morale in the army is not great.

[Owen]

It’s interesting how we decide on the quality of an article or news report based on whether it fits our own personal narrative.

That’s the true cost of the MSM having become so bad.

Facts:

Guyana has oil. Offshore. Production, from Exxon, is about 600K bpd. Reserves estimates are always dicey, but figure on recoverable at 8 billion barrels, which will get it into the top 20 in the world.

Plans of 1.5 mbpd by 2030. Not unreasonable.

1.5 mbpd is 547 million bp year. So yeah, it will flow 20 years. Tends to slow down for the 2nd half as underground pressures reduce from emptying the rock.

Global production is about 102 mbpd. So Guyana, in its best years will be a bit under 1% of global supply, until it dies.