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Here’s the key to reading the tight polls and predicting a Trump win
NY Post ^ | 11/03/2024 | Henry Olsen

Posted on 11/04/2024 7:04:23 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27

click here to read article


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One more day..
1 posted on 11/04/2024 7:04:23 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Glad to be done with all the frickin ads!


2 posted on 11/04/2024 7:06:46 AM PST by princess leah ( )
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To: ChicagoConservative27

I will be glad when the onslaught of texts stops - I am missing important texts because of it.

BTW: Neither I, nor anyone else I know, has ever been called by a pollsters. Not that I’d ever speak to them, phone would be slammed down.


3 posted on 11/04/2024 7:09:18 AM PST by Bon of Babble (You Say You Want a Revolution?)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Witch doctors use more accurate measures than pollsters—goat entrails are a better measure than pollsters “hunches” on “weighting”.


4 posted on 11/04/2024 7:10:10 AM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: Bon of Babble

My mom is getting a lot of calls


5 posted on 11/04/2024 7:10:20 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
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To: Bon of Babble

Over the years a couple of pollsters tried to talk to me.

I hung up in a nanosecond.

My business is my business.


6 posted on 11/04/2024 7:11:05 AM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

All straws in the wind, but we have to acknowledge they’re blowing in the right direction. This guy is a pal of Andrew Klavan and last time I chose to disbelieve his analysis that there wasn’t going to be a big wave. So, no one is psychic, but this guy has credibility with me at least


7 posted on 11/04/2024 7:15:42 AM PST by j.havenfarm (23 years on Free Republic, 12/10/23! More than 8,000 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

All straws in the wind, but we have to acknowledge they’re blowing in the right direction. This guy is a pal of Andrew Klavan and last time I chose to disbelieve his analysis that there wasn’t going to be a big wave. So, no one is psychic, but this guy has credibility with me at least


8 posted on 11/04/2024 7:15:44 AM PST by j.havenfarm (23 years on Free Republic, 12/10/23! More than 8,000 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

“But surveyors can no longer get truly random samples because cellphones and the Internet have changed how people live.

Pollsters have reacted to this in a variety of ways, but they all rely on something called weighting the sample. “

Ah ... fudge factor ... which means they haven’t a clue who is going to win this thing.


9 posted on 11/04/2024 7:16:16 AM PST by plain talk
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To: null and void; aragorn; EnigmaticAnomaly; kalee; Kale; AZ .44 MAG; Baynative; bgill; bitt; ...

p


10 posted on 11/04/2024 7:20:24 AM PST by bitt (<img src=' 'width=30%>)
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To: j.havenfarm

If the methodology is suspect—and this article shows that it is and must be—why would we trust any pollster?

At the end of the day they are guessing—and not even based on actual data.

This is a profession that is a disgrace.

That said—polling can be useful for things like consumer production evaluation or other areas where the bias of the pollster is out of the picture.

“Process” polls are probably fine as well—like “When will you vote” where sampling issues probably won’t mess up the numbers too badly.

In the business world bad polling has real consequences—can cost corporations many millions if they launch a dud new product as an example.

In the political world the bad pollsters keep coming back from the dead—like a horror movie.


11 posted on 11/04/2024 7:21:37 AM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: ChicagoConservative27
It's the difference between a WAG and a SWAG.

NB: Nothing to do with wives and girlfriends.
It's Wild Ass Guess and Scientigic Wild Ass Guess

12 posted on 11/04/2024 7:21:46 AM PST by budj (Combat vet, second of three generations.)
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To: cgbg

I hung up in a nanosecond.

________

That’s why the pollsters are confused. I believe Reps are more likely to hung up. Welfare queens have all the time available to talk their preferences.


13 posted on 11/04/2024 7:28:58 AM PST by AZJeep
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Interesting, isn’t it? We’re in a dumpster fire of issues, but we’re supposedly tied up between polar opposite campaigns. One side literally caused all the dumpster fire issues and the other side has been proven to put out the dumpster fires. And we are tied between the two options?

Somehow the very real concerns of the economy, illegal aliens, drugs and crime, international instability and governmental corruption are falling to the wayside by half of the voting public because that half of the voting public thinks that the fake issues of abortion/women’s rights and the “threat to democracy” along with electing the “first female/black” (regardless of how this moron lies) are more important.

If that is true, than this country (thanks to a completely corrupt media, government and Democrat party) is irreversibly gone . . .


14 posted on 11/04/2024 7:34:21 AM PST by MCSETots ( )
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To: MCSETots

post of the day


15 posted on 11/04/2024 7:35:22 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
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To: ChicagoConservative27

I wonder how much “weighting” the pollster use to determine a Trump voter if the person refuses to talk to them....


16 posted on 11/04/2024 7:56:19 AM PST by jeffc (Resident of the free State of Florida)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Polls are all bullshit. Some people just can’t understand this simple fact.


17 posted on 11/04/2024 7:59:28 AM PST by bigbob
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To: AZJeep

The Polls are fantasy and in bed with MSM narrative. My grown daughter wouldn’t even admit to voting for DJT because our youth has been demonized for having conservative values. She eventually told me but it was like pulling teeth. The silent majority is alive and stronger than ever.


18 posted on 11/04/2024 7:59:35 AM PST by cnsmom
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Does she have a landline?

My mother had a landline up until the day she died a few years ago - she never had pollster call. Not sure if they can access cell phones or not. Doesn’t matter - I don’t answer phone calls unless I can see who it is.


19 posted on 11/04/2024 8:00:06 AM PST by Bon of Babble (You Say You Want a Revolution?)
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To: Bon of Babble

They call her cell


20 posted on 11/04/2024 8:01:07 AM PST by ChicagoConservative27
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