Posted on 11/03/2024 1:27:40 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
The Trump campaign is growing bullish over data it’s seeing showing Republicans gaining ground with the early vote in battleground states relative to where the party stood in the 2020 election cycle.
The campaign sees signs that new and infrequent voters are breaking more toward Republicans than Democrats relative to four years ago, based on the latest indications from the four battleground states that reveal partisan registration during early voting: Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to a source in the camp.
In addition, “In those states, Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet” — despite early voting being closed in nearly every state — “and many not having even requested a mail ballot,” the source said, suggesting the Dems’ numbers might not be as strong this time around.
Even in the other three battleground states where data about party affiliation in early voting is not available, the Trump campaign is seeing a number of bright spots that could foreshadow a favorable outcome, the source said.
Here are some of the data that allies of the campaign have been privately touting, mixed with other early-voter information for added context:
Arizona
Returned mail and early-vote party registration: Republicans up 8 points.
Relative to 2020: Republicans are up 9 points.
Early voting in the Grand Canyon State closed Nov. 1. Men comprised about 50% of the votes for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, according to the data shared with The Post.
Other groups have reported apparent advantages for Republicans here, too. For instance, there have been 924,524 GOP ballot returns, relative to 736,569 for Democrats, according to early-vote data compiled by UpLift Campaigns.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Good news for sure, but the Bears were leading the Commanders with no time left on the clock last week and they lost. So, it means nothing until the clock hits zero.
I keep asking, if we got more of our vote out early, how will that affect the votes we have left on election day?
I’m not sure all of the pre-election day boasting and bragging is necessarily helpful.
As I’ve mentioned earlier here, the ground game run by Lara Trump is likely far superior to what was done four years earlier. And you can add what kind of a serious disappointment Biden/Harris is to many.
I hope the results are such that Raskin pulls all his remaining hair out
It will, but not as much as Ds as their EV is much heavier than 4-4 and 3-4 than Rs. Their high propensity voters have voted while ours are more low propensity.
Our side has a tendency to be doomers, and Trump is trying to avoid that.
Well, I figure there is always some percent of early voters who wouldn’t have gotten around to voting on election day. Therefore, some percentage of the improved early voting is real.
However, we used to almost discourage early voting, this year is a very different approach and the full effect won’t be known until it’s over.
If her base doesn’t turn out.
She was just on TV refusing to say if she voted for Prop 36..honestly I dont blame her, she’s a retard..I blame the retards who are voting for her because they want to have sex with as many strangers as they want, get knocked up and kill the baby, that is her ENTIRE election..God forbid if this brain dead moron gets elected, God help us
She will cause a Civil war.
She’s an idiot..either she is a complete and utter idiot or she is afraid to say how she REALLY feel which is even more scary..I mean she is a resident of California, she knows the proposition, she could have at least given her opinion, but she couldn’t..she couldn’t even do THAT..so Im leaning towards her true feelings she doesn’t want to say otherwise she knows its going to hurt her campaign like “Yeah Im for crime OK, the more the merrier so suck on that”
Her advisers probably told her to be quiet.
All the demons are going to do here is stuff the in person Election Day vote and say it broke for their giggling idiot.
Many early votes this cycle come from lower-propensity voters and new voters. Whatever early votes come from high-propensity Tuesday voters will not suffer from the several percent leakage that comes on election day from weather, traffic, family emergency, etc.
Pew and other pollsters show Trump with a 15%+ lead amongst voters who will vote on Election Day.
If that holds, the RATs don’t have nearly enough early votes to overcome it.
Sounds good.
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