Posted on 10/18/2024 7:26:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Trump is supposed to be happy he will get 264 electoral votes? Did the author read the article he is writing?
Those predicted electoral votes do not look good.
How can Trump have a higher probability of an electoral college victory when Harris has a higher number of predicted electoral votes? What am I missing?
How the hell could the race be this close? She is an absolute embarrassment....
How the hell could the race be this close? She is an absolute embarrassment....
Propaganda from our corporate media and our education system.
Does Nate Silver factor vote fraud into his calculations?
That could easily turn the tide, just as it did in 2020.
It doesn’t make sense.
The first column shows Trump with a 50.2% chance of getting an electoral college victory...then three columns over, it shows Heels up Harris with an electoral college victory of 273.
WTH?
A badly-skewed EV. If he runs sims, some of the scenarios has Kamala corn-stomping. Most of them don’t. Therefore, his mean occurs to the left of his median and the results look weird.
It’s a result of the math of his model. His model assigns a probability to each possible result of the election in terms of EC votes for each candidate. The 50.3% chance is the total probability of all scenarios where Trump gets 270 or more. The 273 is Kamala’s average EC vote total in the model.
This is not inconsistent by any means. Consider as an example a simpler model where Kamala gets either 360 EC votes with a probability of 40% or she gets 260 with a probability of 60%. This model would give her a 40% chance of winning but an average EC vote total of 0.4x360 + 0.6x260 = 300. Both of these are mathematically correct statements about this model.
In like fashion, a win probability of 49.7% and an average EC vote total of 273 is not indicative that Silver’s model is flawed. Of course, it may be flawed, but this apparent inconsistency is not proof of that.
The Probability in the first column accounts for the 3rd party. The Predicted outcome in the third column excludes the irrelevant 3rd party as it won’t be awarded any EVs.
Good explanation.
3 generations lost to education system, hollywood and msm.
The voters’ opinions about Trump are largely set in stone. The voters opinions about Harris are not yet totally set in stone. Her numbers could drop if the voters begin to see beyond the protective facade that the media have constructed for her.
But I do think that now a lot of people who don’t necessarily like Trump, or even think he’s a jerk, respect his perseverance and believe that’s a good trait to have as a leader.
LOL, if voter fraud and cheating are in the numbers, then you can wipe your butt will the Silver Bulletin.
This is an installation not an election.
And immigration and very different demographics since Magnus era
And immigration and very different demographics since Magnus era
Driven by the propaganda that labels anyone opposing it as ‘racist’ and ‘xenophobic’.
It’s a bit bizarre.
Who cares what an algorithm says if it is polling dependent. Just look at the poll. There is no added information from the algorithm.
We all know that you are voting for Harris, now piss off, Trump hater.
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