“No WWIII over Iran. Ukraine, maybe.”
Depends, of course. If Israel takes out Iran’s oil terminal island and Iran then shuts down the Straight of Hormuz anything could happen.
Could a shut down of the Persian Gulf lead some combination of nations to put boots on the ground? I sure hope not. How would China react? It couldn’t intervene, but it might decide to move closer to home.
My guess is that this time around, Iran would not be able to maintain a shutdown of the Strait of Homuz for too long. Iran’s refined products capacity is quite vulnerable. Take out their refineries, IMPORT terminals, and significant storage. No fuel. Then what are they going to do?
If Iran shuts down the strait probably any military equipment it uses will be destroyed. Including missile sites navy boats, mines, it would destroy Iranian oil economy, especially if pipelines on the land are destroyed along their length. That would invite open rebellion by starving and cold Iranians....