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Is Texas about to put a Democrat in the Senate?
The Week ^ | Joel Mathis

Posted on 10/01/2024 4:53:05 PM PDT by nickcarraway

Colin Allred is gaining on Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz is one of the most high-profile Republicans in the U.S. Senate. He is also one of the most vulnerable — and he has a fight on his hands in Texas.

Cruz is "fighting for his political survival," said The New York Times. His reelection race against challenger Colin Allred, a Democratic congressman and former football star, is "increasingly competitive." Polls show Cruz clinging to a slim, single-digit lead. That has some GOP officials "concerned" that Cruz could lose the seat, said the Times. If so, Republicans could also lose the opportunity to reclaim the majority in the Senate. "The current reality is that Texas is too close for comfort," said Matt Mackowiak, who leads the Travis County Republican Party.

Democrats have "long faced hurdles in the Lone Star State," said The Hill. "For a Democrat to win statewide Texas, it's a big lift. It's a heavy lift," said a Democratic PAC leader. But Donald Trump won the state by just under 6 points in 2020. Democrats in Texas have been "closer and closer," said one strategist, and "pretty soon closer is going to be close enough."

What did the commentators say?

Cruz's reelection bid is in the "'safe bet' category," Jim Geraghty said at the National Review. We've seen these kinds of challenges before — when Jamie Harrison raised $130 million on the way to losing to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), when Amy McGrath raised $88 million to fall to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, or even when Beto O'Rourke became a national sensation while losing to, yes, Ted Cruz in 2018. This looks like more of the same. "It doesn't really matter if your Democratic neighbor down the street thinks that Allred can beat Cruz," said Geraghty.

"Could Donald Trump inadvertently help Democrats win Ted Cruz's seat?" Chris Tomlinson said at The Houston Chronicle. At least one poll shows Allred closer to beating Cruz than O'Rourke was in 2018. And national polling has suggested that Kamala Harris is benefitting from a surge of Democratic voter enthusiasm that could boost down-ballot candidates, even in Texas. "If Trump bombs and Harris soars," Tomlinson said, "Allred could win."

What next?

Allred's campaign is getting a big boost: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced last week it is "sending millions to Texas" to support his challenge to Cruz, said The Texas Tribune. Democrats have worried about losing control of the U.S. Senate in this election cycle — they have several "difficult" seats to defend, including that of Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Now they see an opportunity to flip expectations. "Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense," said DSCC Chair Sen. Gary Peters.

Cruz has long been known as a conservative firebrand — now he's trying to "rebrand" himself as a bipartisan senator, said Politico. "What is new is not that I'm passing bipartisan legislation that helps produce jobs in Texas," Cruz said. He has been touting his efforts to protect in-vitro fertilization, as well as his participation in cross-party bills for hurricane relief and trade across the Rio Grande. There is a good reason for him to stake his claim to a broader ideological identity, Politico said: "Even if he hasn't changed, Texas has."


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: conservative; cruz; firebrand; gaslighting; lizcheney; lyintedcruz; nevertrumper; senator; texas; theweak; youbetcha
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Does Cruz have a chance? In 2018, he beat Beto O'Rourke by 50.89 to 48.3%. O'Rourke was running far to the left, even by non-Texas standards. That means if Cruz had been running against a regular Texas Democrat who acts conservative, he would have lost in 2018. And MAGA is probably against him.
1 posted on 10/01/2024 4:53:05 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

He told a lot of lies in 2016 about trump


2 posted on 10/01/2024 4:54:05 PM PDT by BRL
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To: nickcarraway

Not a prayer , good for a laugh though


3 posted on 10/01/2024 4:54:30 PM PDT by italianquaker
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To: nickcarraway

Enjoy your posting trash, Onan...


4 posted on 10/01/2024 4:54:40 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (TrumpII)
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To: StAnDeliver

?


5 posted on 10/01/2024 4:56:37 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway
But Donald Trump won the state by just under 6 points in 2020. Democrats in Texas have been "closer and closer,"

The Left has made Texas a goal for many years. When (not if) we lose it, it's gonna be a whole 'nother ball game for "America."

6 posted on 10/01/2024 4:57:03 PM PDT by workerbee (==)
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To: nickcarraway

MAGA isn’t against Cruz.

And Allred is a typical pro-abortion, lax on illegal alien invaders Democrat.


7 posted on 10/01/2024 4:58:18 PM PDT by ro_dreaming (Who knew "Idiocracy", "1984", "Enemy of the State", and "Person of Interest" would be non-fiction?)
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To: nickcarraway

Mid terms are totally different.
Trump +6 in 2020 in Texas.
Cruz will win.


8 posted on 10/01/2024 4:58:26 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: nickcarraway
Allred's campaign is getting a big boost: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced last week it is "sending millions to Texas" to support his challenge to Cruz,

I like it when Democrats waste their own money instead of mine

9 posted on 10/01/2024 4:59:23 PM PDT by Pontiac (esse welfare state must fail because it is contrary to human nature and diminishes the human spirit.)
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To: BRL

eGOP, another scum for DT to wash.


10 posted on 10/01/2024 4:59:55 PM PDT by TribalPrincess2U
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To: nickcarraway

Texas just purged 1.1M from their rolls.

The day after late ballot pool just shrank dramatically.

We’ll see if it’s really as close as the MSM gaslighting polls say it is.


11 posted on 10/01/2024 5:00:03 PM PDT by Regulator (It's fraud, Jim)
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To: nickcarraway

Regardless of who is the governor and the AG in Texas it has a huge history of vote fraud. And some corrupt judge just made sure that it will continue by tying the AG’s hands behind his back.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4268091/posts


12 posted on 10/01/2024 5:00:09 PM PDT by Revel
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To: workerbee
The Left has made Texas a goal for many years. When (not if) we lose it, it's gonna be a whole 'nother ball game for "America."

I wouldn't say that. Hispanics in Texas are acting similar to Hispanics in Florida. They actually believe in the American Dream.

The Democratic Party reminds them of socialism in their old country.

13 posted on 10/01/2024 5:00:32 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: workerbee

We need to hold it. We flipped Florida and Ohio from “battleground” to solid red. If Cruz can’t keep his seat he’s doing something wrong.


14 posted on 10/01/2024 5:01:06 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: nickcarraway

I wish he would shave that beard also. He doesn’t pull it off and just gives off an 1840s scruffy vibe.

He really needs to clean up, look modern and clean cut, and get through this election. Then we need to get his to the Supreme Court.


15 posted on 10/01/2024 5:02:59 PM PDT by DesertRhino (2016 Star Wars, 2020 The Empire Strikes Back, 2024... RETURN OF THE JEDI. )
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To: nickcarraway

That was before 4 years of illegal invasion on the Texas southern border


16 posted on 10/01/2024 5:03:02 PM PDT by Joshua (up the meaning of the word "f)
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To: Regulator

How do you explain he barely beat O’Rourke?


17 posted on 10/01/2024 5:06:02 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: DesertRhino

He’s not appropriate for the Supreme Court, he has never been a judge. But I don’t think there’s a chance Biden, Harris, or Trump would nominate him anyway.


18 posted on 10/01/2024 5:08:30 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

I’m a lifetime Texan and I’ve noticed that our margin of votes cast has become slimmer over time.

Our major urban areas have become overwhelmingly liberal and our conservative rural vote continues to shrink.

I pray Ted Cruz manages another victory but the outside forces are focused on him. They absolutely hate him.


19 posted on 10/01/2024 5:09:57 PM PDT by texanyankee
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To: monkeyshine

What has Cruz done? He talks. I hope he wins but the only memorable thing he’s done is run for president.


20 posted on 10/01/2024 5:10:14 PM PDT by bigbob
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