You may not understand polling.
Poll results from a pollster, compared to another pollster, doesn’t mean anything. They have different turnout models.
The only change to positions you will see is if a candidate’s internal polls show some movement — because that would mean minds are changing or could be changed.
If Morning Consult has a turnout presumption of 16% blacks (of total votes cast) and blacks favor the Dem 75/25, then of course that turnout presumption will generate a measure more Dem favorable. If the turnout presumption of a different pollster is 13% blacks, then of course that will be less Dem favorable in the final calculation.
Again, PEOPLE, know how it works. It’s not make 1000 phone calls and add up Trump vs Harris numbers. That’s not how you poll because the risk is too great the 1000 calls are not a representative sample. Sampling only works if it is representative. So these models are defined and the phone calls are plugged into them.
The big Harris surge vs Biden has not been anyone changing their minds. It was pollsters changing their models. Increase blacks and increase women in the presumed turnout.
There is zero proof this will happen.
Do you have proof that they changed turnout models for Harris?
I realize the sampling bias. We have to make sure we have representative sampling in our manufacturing processes and clinical trials.
My point is this could very well be a close race, the MAIN issue for many voters is sexual license. That’s one reason for sexual indoctrination in public schools.
Every other concern for many voters is secondary.
Why do you think after what, fifty or so years after the first IVF baby we suddenly are hearing about this topic?
Check out this article about the Democrat convention, detailing how speakers misattribute Project 2025 to Trump and how often they referenced abortion, IVF or contraception:
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/08/third-night-of-the-democratic-convention/
The claims outlined in this article work well on the low information voters.
How many people refuse to discuss politics with random strangers who happen to have their phone number? Rush Limbaugh mentioned this about the 1989 Presidential election in Nicaragua, when Communist Dictator Daniel Ortega had a lead, according to polls.