Posted on 08/31/2024 7:52:16 AM PDT by RandFan
Correction;Is it possible they know she will lose..although,maybe they’ll get lucky and or cheat.
It’s no doubt they will not quit going after Trump ..even if he wins.
Do you have proof that they changed turnout models for Harris?
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I do.
In the RCP front page, over on the right is a box with poll arrangements. The first one is national polls. Click it.
There will appear a list of all the polls on the left. Scroll down BELOW that first box of the most recent 10 or 12 polls. Below that is a profile of all they have been covering going back months.
Scroll down to CBSNews 7/30-8/2 (Harris+1). Don’t click it yet. Scroll down even further to CBSNews 7/16-7/18 note Trump+2. So scroll back up to the 7/30 - 8/2 poll and click it. This is the first Harris poll.
Scroll to the end:
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 3,102 registered voters nationwide interviewed between July 30-August 2nd, 2024. The survey included an oversample of Black respondents. The final sample as reported was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as to 2020 presidential vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationwide.
Note mention of black oversample. That means oversample with respect to their turnout model — and thus a change to it. **The CBSNews polls thereafter do not repeat that sentence.** It was extracted, with all other text the same. No further need to oversample since the new model now reflected that initial decision about black turnout.
I realize the sampling bias. We have to make sure we have representative sampling in our manufacturing processes and clinical trials.
My point is this could very well be a close race, the MAIN issue for many voters is sexual license. That’s one reason for sexual indoctrination in public schools.
Every other concern for many voters is secondary.
Why do you think after what, fifty or so years after the first IVF baby we suddenly are hearing about this topic?
Check out this article about the Democrat convention, detailing how speakers misattribute Project 2025 to Trump and how often they referenced abortion, IVF or contraception:
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/08/third-night-of-the-democratic-convention/
The claims outlined in this article work well on the low information voters.
Understood.
I do not think any of that stuff moves the needle. It is no different than what has been done for centuries. Define the opponent, but at the convention they are preaching to the choir.
There are nearly no minds to change. All poll movements of late have been turnout model adjustments.
You can’t change minds. You have to mine the 30% of eligible voters who do not vote. That means filling out ballots for them at nursing homes. Lara Trump’s RNC should be doing this.
They could run a donkey’s 🫏 hind end and still get 48%.
Someone has got to penetrate these polling companies and expose the lying and the methodology they use.
Then sue them for election interference.
The media-generated hatred of Donald Trump runs deep.
They aren’t lying. They make a choice of turnout model.
They don’t all use the same model. The phone calls have to fit the model. Only when they have accumulated a “representative sample” do they add up Trump vs Harris.
It will take a lot of phone calls to get 500 or whatever total to fit the total model (of X/Y men-women, X/Y/Z race, Dem/GOP/Ind). Once they have 500 that fits the array of ratios, they measure Trump vs Harris.
You can make a decision about model and move the needle. That’s what they do. They may have a wrong presumption of men/women or race or party affiliation, but their sampling is done with that presumption in mind.
It’s not lying. It’s just different turnout model choices. When Harris replace Biden, they all changed their turnout models to more women and more blacks. Then their measures moved the needle, with no one in the electorate changing their minds.
The media reports that differently about enthusiasm and joy, but no one’s mind need have changed to get different poll numbers.
How’s that Kool Aid taste Kammunists?
My own analysis - Trump has a ZERO percent chance of winning the Popular Vote.
Trump has a 50-50 chance to win a majority of the Electoral Votes.
However, his margin of victory in a half dozen Swing States, will be 2% - or less.
About as big a BS story as one could ever be. But Trump is not helping himself by turning on his base and trying to be a progressive democrat on certain issues.
At best, this will be her highest numbers. She’s already starting to go down. Trump up in the very most recent polls.
BRAT Summer, Joy and Hope is over.
Freepers make the mistake in assuming likely voters will decide based on who will really run the country better. I’m hearing many moderates saying they are considering Harris simply because she is a woman of color and it’s time for it to happen. They have no concern that a president will have any major effect on the country because staffers do everythibg for them so it’s just about voting for whose turn it is now to be president.
Most likely this cabal of LIB liars aren’t “polling” anyone. These liars have no limits to their lies. What criminal reprobates.
This is critical for us to remember.
Elective politics is mostly a beauty contest. For "low information" (e.g. stupid) voters, it comes down to superficial appearances.
Watch Kamala Harris with the sound turned off. She is younger and better looking than Donald Trump. And she is - female. That is enough for a very large portion of the electorate to decide who they will favor. That is the base for Kamala Harris support.
Issues do not matter. Even basic economics do not matter as much as they should. Most people vote based on their feelings.
To change how people vote, you need to manipulate their feelings.
Of course, the Democrats do not really need votes all that much. What they need are ballots. That requires careful large-scale organization and planning for deception and fraud.
YEP
Mediate is leftist
Grade “AAAAAAA” Bullshit
That midget dwarf Bloomberg hates two things more than anything else - guns and Trump
The only explanation for these ‘polls’ is that the authors are trying to set the stage for the great fraud to follow. We’re closing in on November, there’s no way she’s even close but they must make it appear close.
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