Posted on 08/26/2024 9:13:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
In my previous Wargaming the Electoral College, the map had barely budged in the 10 days or so since Presidentish Joe Biden was shoved off the top of his ticket by high-ranking members of his own party.
That's changed in the last four weeks and not to Donald Trump's advantage. Can Robert F. Kennedy Jr. help change it back?
Before I try and answer that — and there might not (yet) be a satisfactory answer — a few quick words about the state of the race and one blue and red map to show you what's changed.
According to Polymarket bettors, this really is anyone's race. Yesterday, Trump was at 49% odds and Harris at 50%. Today it's the other way around.
Their map looks like this:
The Polymarket results are closely in line with various polls (more on those in a moment) supposedly showing that Harris had opened things up in the Southwest (Ariz. and Nev.), shored things up in the Upper Midwest (Mich. and Wisc.), and weakened Trump slightly in the South (Ga. and N.C.).
The net result is a 251-251 tie (including leaners) with Pennsylvania determining the winner. The numbers and the swing states haven't changed that much but Harris has more routes to victory than Biden had, and Trump has fewer than he had against Biden.
About those polls...
Stephen Kruiser and I were having this conversation earlier today on our Five O'Clock Somewhere video live chat that pollsters seem to be oversampling Democrats as part of the Uniparty push to make Harris seem inevitable.
That said, she is likely doing better than Biden was doing against Trump, if only because she doesn't look and sound like she has one foot in the grave.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
You assume that all 50 states will complete a count and get a state ‘certification’ by the morning of 14 December.
I think it’s possible in this election that five to eight states will say they can’t wrap it up. So the Electoral College method fails because of this, and we go to a state-by-state vote in the House in January. (Senate vote for VP).
Welcome to the Trump-Walz administration. (Or Harris-Vance.)
Get your hopes up but the fact is that voting-by-mail is how the communists took control and they will not be giving it up. Everyone knows that this is Obama 4.0 and all the brown and black people will be voting for it, again.
No one has changed their mind in the electorate. And yes, that’s a period.
Only pollsters changed their mind and adjusted their turnout models. Their pick of black turnout was changed, as were other categories.
They got no more or fewer of them in their phone calls. They were rejecting samples before when they had already obtained the desired proportion of blacks, etc. Now they reject fewer.
The change in the polls is entirely derived from change by pollsters.
According to Mark, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, Rasmussen Reports might be the only pollster that didn’t change the turnout model when Biden dropped his campaign and Harris took over the top spot of the Democrat ticket. Mark said the other pollsters changed their turnout models. I would take the polls with a grain of salt and be a little suspicious.
With this whacked-up scenario...for a week or two...I could see a Vance-Johnson (House Speaker stepping up to fill the role of temp-VP) situation, until the rogue states realize the amount of trouble created.
Sadly it’s within the margin of steal.
And they will.
Predicting America’s Next President With 90% Accuracy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRQAyFP27oY
Professor Lichtman should be coming out with his prediction very soon.
Good info. The #1 poll to be "a little suspicious" of then, is Rasmussen (as if that wasn't already pretty obvious).
"Things have changed but we'll pretend they haven't" isn't a great approach for accurate forecasting. And, as I've mentioned before, we'd all be shrieking hysterically if the shoe were on the other foot -- if the *GOP* nominee changed (for the better, like from Haley to Trump) but pollsters chose to ignore that fact.
Reverse Poll-arity (or "We Are All Polling Experts -- All Except the Actual Pollsters")
The main question then is the election integrity of the states that will decide it. Can we expect Philadelphia/Milwaukee to report with 104% of the vote?
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