People, relax, this was not a great poll. They had 600 samples per state, and in one instance 580.
There were no cross tabs on partisan mix. The only model information was Women +3 and Blacks 9%. This is because Wisconsin has so few.
Go look at the CBS News poll on the RCP list. Scroll all the way to the bottom. They explicitly say they oversampled blacks with respect to their model. Their previous measure was Trump +1. The new one with oversampling, Harris+1.
That is a national measure. Given Calif and NY so intensely affect the national measure, and it was Harris +1 even with a black oversampling, you cannot get Harris+4 from states that are NOT Calif and NY. Those two have 20+% leads and they could only do Harris+1 **even with black oversampling**.
This is an MOE issue, and a fundraising issue.
Shh.. the keeper trolls don’t like logic.