Wind and the Assassination Attempt on President Trump

AmmoLand ^ | August 5, 2024 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

There has been speculation about the effect of wind on the trajectory of the bullets fired at Presidential Candidate, former President Donald Trump. According to media reports, the would-be assassin fired from a position North of Donald Trump, about 130 meters away.

Measurement on Google Maps puts the distance at about 441 feet, 147 yards, or 134 meters. This is close to the BBC estimate of 130 meters for the shot. The direction of the shot was from North to South, at about 20 degrees East of North toward 20 degrees West of South. Meridian Rd, on the right side of the image, runs North/South.

Fortunately, there is a weather station in Butler, less than five miles away, almost due East. Station KPABUTLE38 recorded wind direction and speed on July 13, 2024. The assassination attempt happened about 6:12 P.M. Here are the wind speeds and directions recorded five miles away during that period:

Meteorological measurements were taken about five miles East of Butler Farm Show on July 13, 2024.

The winds were mostly light and variable. Consider the directions shown for the winds from 5:59 P.M. to 6:29 P.M. The varied considerably from SE, WSW, South, North, SSW, SW, and WSW.  WNW or ESE would be the closest cardinal directions to be direct crosswinds to the line of fire. Because the wind was so variable, it is possible there was a direct cross wind, but the odds favor a wind about 45 degrees or less to the line of fire. Gusts were recorded of up to 8.9 mph.

A direct crosswind of 5 mph would result in a standard 5.56 round

[The Great RJ]

It was a miracle that Trump avoided what could have been a fatal head wound.

[Delta 21]

Coulda been simple trigger finger pull/push. I cant remember which way it makes your round strike but buck fever can pull you off of a shot that far at least.

Right hand shooter let of center?
Left hand shooter right of center?
Pulling or pushing the trigger?
I cant remember because I fixed that problem over 40 years ago.

[Delta 21]

That would have been so demoralizing, that the left leaning MSM would have to play it over and over and over again for a few months I bet.

[Salvavida]

The uneven pulling of the trigger finger from a right hand shooter moves the strike of the round to the right. If he palmed/pushed the grip in anticipation of the shot, that will move it to the left.

[TalBlack]

An average hunter of my acquaintance can reliably knock Dow deer at two to three hundred yards with a scoped el cheapo Marlin 35.

[2111USMC]

Thanks for putting this info out Dean.

At that relatively short range, the wind was a fairly negligible factor.

[2111USMC]

Agree

[OKSooner]

Thanks for posting this helpful information for our non-gun literate friends.

[Salvavida]

I knew what I wanted to say, but it came out wrong. Here is the correction:

Wind doesn’t have a meaningful effect on the trajectory of a 5.56 at 200 yards or less. That is why in the Marine Corps, there is no dope change for wind at that distance— because any effect on the round from wind, would be less than the 1 Minute of Angle that the rifle’s sights are mechanically designed to move the strike of the round to compensate for wind. In other words, any manipulation of windage at 200 yards or closer, would overcompensate from the true zero.

He either had a poorly sighted rifle, or he anticipated the shot by pushing his shoulder forward into the stock, or both. Either way, a 150 yard shot from a prone position is ridiculously easy, even without a scope.

Now, if he had competition open sights of 1/4 Minutes of Angle, that's different. But he doesn't strike me as someone who would have them installed, or would even know the difference.