Posted on 07/23/2024 6:13:32 PM PDT by usafa92
Possibly the most pro-Trump and least accurate pollster of 2020.
Acidy feeling coming up in the back of my mouth. Where's the barf bag?
This I like. Still worried.
Heels Up will get a bit of bump because she is now (basically) the official Dem candidate and MAYBE another bump after the convention if its not a disaster, after that I think she will just slide down to below Biden levels.
Doesn’t mean they still can’t stuff ballot boxes to get her to win though.
Nice
Polling is totally useless right now and probably will be until the eve of the DNC (after which, Kamala will get a convention bounce).
We won't see any worthwhile polling until early September, an eternity away in politics.
How would anyone know? We have no idea how close they were to the actual legitimate vote, that which an accurate poll would have reflected. They damned sure didn’t predict “Biden’s 81 million votes”.
“Possibly the most pro-Trump and least accurate pollster of 2020.”
I don’t doubt it; Ras is way off the deep (right) end in polling and while it helps the nervous types feeeeeel a little better it’s actually not helpful at all to engender foolish and misguided overconfidence.
Everything else posted here:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls/election
....is a lot more plausible than Rasmussen.
Whatever cakewalk people thought was going to happen with Biden as the nominee is out the window now. At best, we can hope that these latest non-outlier polls are simply initial Democrat enthusiasm for someone — anyone — who isn’t Joe Biden. And that such enthusiasm will wear off.
The media will do its utmost to see that doesn’t happen, of course.
Same. We’ve many hopeful signs but it’s way too many days until this damn election.
The killer factors that mess up any poll are:
1. Many people are ignorant or undecided on the election. At least 10% at this point.
2. No poll knows how many of each party will show up to vote. That is completely unpredictable.
3. Your sample must reflect a random sample of each state, since the electoral college is a 50 state election. That means 50-100 random samples of people who will vote in each state. That’s 2500-5000 people.
How many polls do that? Zero.
Go Trump. Screw the insecure republicans who run scared and always say “yeah but”. They have nothing to offer but negativity.
Who the h#@# is Oliver?
“Your sample must reflect a random sample of each state, since the electoral college is a 50 state election. “
Nah. Just poll the swing states.
Nobody is trying to, and nobody NEEDS to, predict how every state is going to vote in one massive poll with a sufficient sample to cover all 50 states with a sufficient sample szie.
At least 40 states are baked-in already, barring a major landslide which is not going to happen this year.
And yet in 2016 Ras was the most accurate, funny thing, a real poll ending up inaccurate when massive fraud occurs. Take your propaganda elsewhere.
It’s also all the people who didn’t want to vote for Trump or Biden.
All this was predictable.
We are entering a recession and growing unemployment. Word Salad and the dems will crater in October
Biden wasn’t going to be a cakewalk either. Trump’s ceiling was always about 330. The partisan makeup of the states prevents anything further. That said, the pollling from the left that magically appeared 36 hours after Kamala was annointed, was totally predictable.
The reliable Left leaning pollsters, Quinnipiac, NPR/Marist, Ipsos and Morning Consult, dutifully produced their tied polls with MC even showing her up by 2. The NPR poll had Trump at 34%with blacks, leading with whites by same amount as he was Biden, and Indies by larger than he led Clinton, and up 29% with working whites, yet he’s behind. The key point in all these polls are twofold. First, Biden was up almost 9% at this time in 2020, Trump is up about 1.5%. Second, even with all their manipulation they can’t get Harris over 44-45%. Democrats are still in trouble. Let the noise settle, Trump will settle into a 3-5 point lead. He can be down 2-3 and still win the EC.
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