Wrong. This is a state by state race now. A good VP choice will suddenly open up the individual battleground states. No one is looking at national polls right now.
The national polls define the battlegrounds.
4.5% was the national numbers and it took that, given Calif and NY at +25, to move battlegrounds to dead even.
She can’t get to dead even without 7.5% polling nationally. Because the battlegrounds are part of the national polling.
The biggest litmus surprise is Nevada. How did that happen there? Answer: Hispanics. She’s not recapturing them. And she’s not black. She won’t be capturing black male Independents.
Frankly, I am surprised she is taking the nomination. Nominees who are not incumbents and lose nearly never get another chance. She’s starting out behind. This is not the year for her to try and lose her chance forever.