I always thought this would be a close race, but not with Biden or Harris at the top of the Dem ticket. Both own the immigration crisis and the border czar thing is going to bury her regardless of her alleged “assets”. If I can’t have Biden and his cognizance issue as the opponent, then my next choice would be Kamala to beat up on
Polls have been stable since the beginning of the year.
Despite the debate. Despite assassination.
Those did not affect the numbers, because largely no one is voting for anyone. The Dem numbers are anti Trump, and there are already a couple of Biden lead polls out there.
It didn’t matter what happened with Biden, his numbers were anti Trump.
The Independents reject elites from both parties and are focused on the Swamp, and inflation, and yes, the border.
They are not going to be moved by a new candidate who perhaps talks about abortion. Abortion can’t move votes. All those votes are already in place on either side.
And so, she can’t affect inflation. She can’t affect the border. And she’s not a populist.
Independents generally are all those things.
She’s not black. She’s not going to bring the black men back to the plantation. And the border is the border, and has carved out a serious chunk of Hispanics.
The greatest threat she faces is Kennedy. He will want to re-register Democrat and compete at the convention. His people are already angry at the DNC and if they are disrespectful, he could carve off another 1-2%.
Regardless of all of this, it takes 3-4% national Dem lead to move the Battlegrounds, because sooooo many are in Calif and NY. A tie score going into early voting is a Trump win.
I can’t see how she is going to go from -1-2% to +4%. But then we have not seen what they have for October surprise.