You continue to lie about what happened, even after FReepers patiently tried to explain it to you.
IOW I didn’t buy into your unsubstantiated opinion.
I go with objective barometers if at all possible.
The ruble rallied the first four months of the invasion. That says we believe he will be able to evade sanctions long enough to finish off Ukraine and this is going to be over quickly.
That trumps your explanation.