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It is odd….

CNN polling Trump vs. Biden since Aug 2023

Polling Data CNN

POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE MOE
TRUMP (R)
BIDEN (D)
SPREAD
CNN

6/28 - 6/30 1045 RV 3.7 49 43 Trump +6

4/18 - 4/23 967 RV 3.8 49 43 Trump +6

1/25 - 1/30 1212 RV 3.4 49 45 Trump +4

10/27 - 11/2 1271 RV 3.4 49 45 Trump +4

8/25 - 8/31 1259 RV 3.6 47 46 Trump +1

[It is odd….
CNN polling Trump vs. Biden since Aug 2023

Polling Data CNN

POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE MOE
TRUMP (R)
BIDEN (D)
SPREAD
CNN

6/28 - 6/30 1045 RV 3.7 49 43 Trump +6

4/18 - 4/23 967 RV 3.8 49 43 Trump +6

1/25 - 1/30 1212 RV 3.4 49 45 Trump +4

10/27 - 11/2 1271 RV 3.4 49 45 Trump +4

8/25 - 8/31 1259 RV 3.6 47 46 Trump +1]

Not all odd. The split second reaction time required for debates obviously deteriorates with age. Political office requires slow burn rumination, not split second reaction times. If debate performance determined political viability, we’d be governed by twenty somethings.

Debates are a contest between rival sophists. In TV debates, though, affect seems like a much bigger deal than what’s actually said. JFK came off better than Nixon because Nixon shunned makeup, came off looking sweaty and unshaven compared to Kennedy’s matinee idol cool. Radio listeners thought Nixon did better, but by the 60s TV watchers formed the overwhelming majority of the debate audience. Thanks to his underwhelming affect on TV, Nixon went from anointed heir to Eisenhower’s era of peace, strength and prosperity to also-ran.

But we’re no longer in the 1960s, when TV debates were a novel phenomenon. TV audiences are jaded, such that a debate may be just a debate, without much effect on voter intent. Would the typical Trump voter have changed his mind if Trump’s performance had been abysmal?

The upshot of 6/28 is Biden’s affect was terrible. A veteran debater had an off day. But all the policy reasons voters had for voting one way or the other remain. Is Trump less detestable for those who hate his guts? Is Biden less likeable to his fans? If anything, Biden gets the sympathy vote. For his fans, a lion in winter, but nonetheless a lion. If post debate polls are any indicator, the effect on Biden’s numbers were minimal, with a downtick of a point or two.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Democrat contenders and consultants not in Biden’s inner circle aren’t worried about the Democrat party’s future. They saw a chink in his armor and were hoping to drive a truck thru it for personal gain. Openings for presidential nominations, and fresh slots in their entourages, don’t grow on trees.

But so far, nothing has changed. Away from CNN, every one of them polls worse than Biden. He’s a conniving bastard, but generally regarded as a nice guy.