Top Dems: Biden has losing strategy

Axios ^ | June 19, 2024 | Alex Thompson

[lasereye]

Senior Democrats, including some of President Biden's aides, are increasingly dubious about his theory for victory in November, which relies on voter concerns about Jan. 6, political violence, democracy and Donald Trump's character.

Why it matters: Biden's core inner circle hasn't lost faith in that approach, the product of Biden and his longtime aide, Mike Donilon.

• But that puts them on an island within much of the party about what will decide the election, as polls consistently have shown Biden tied or behind even after a slight bump following Trump's criminal conviction.
• Several polls have indicated voters are deeply concerned about democracy but they are most worried about inflation and the economy. They've also shown Biden's support slipping among key Democratic voting groups: Blacks, Latinos, young adults and union members, but the Democracy message is resonating with older voters.
• Biden's former chief of staff Ron Klain, who has known Donilon for decades, told Axios his view is: "In Mike I trust."

What they're saying: A Democratic strategist in touch with the campaign told Axios: "It is unclear to many of us watching from the outside whether the president and his core team realize how dire the situation is right now, and whether they even have a plan to fix it. That is scary."

• People close to the president told Axios they worry about raising concerns in meetings because Biden's group of longtime loyal aides can exile dissenters.
• "Even for those close to the center, there is a hesitance to raise skepticism or doubt about the current path, for fear of being viewed as disloyal," a person in Biden's orbit told Axios, speaking on condition of anonymity because of those dynamics.
• "There is not a discussion that a change of course is needed."

Driving the news: Donilon, Biden's top political aide, privately has reassured people that voters will "do the right thing" in November by embracing democracy and rejecting Trump, according to a Biden aide who has heard Donilon say it.

• "Joe Biden is a great president, and great presidents get re-elected," is another common Donilon refrain.
• Donilon — one of the most experienced and understated Democratic operatives in the country — has worked with Biden since 1981. He has argued that polls aren't fully reflecting voters' concerns about democracy.
• In response to questions for this story, Biden advisers told Axios: "These people have clearly not heard from Mike or anyone on the team the president's detailed case for re-election."

Donilon articulated a nuanced version of this to The New Yorker's Evan Osnos earlier this year, saying that Jan. 6 would affect the 2024 election much like 9/11 was central to the 2004 election.

• "The Democratic Party didn't want to believe it was a 9/11 election," Donilon told Osnos. "…I decided, after the election, I would never be part of a presidential campaign that didn't figure out — with clarity — what it wanted to say and stick to it."

By Election Day this year, Donilon believes "the focus will become overwhelming on democracy. I think the biggest images in people's minds are going to be of January 6th."

• The Biden advisers told Axios: "This is Joe Biden's strategy — and Mike Donilon and his top advisers are in agreement with the president. The polling shows that democracy ended up a top issue of concern for voters in 2022, and it will be in 2024."

Biden's inner circle is cohesive but insular: Aides joke that there's an unofficial "no new friends rule."

• The group includes First Lady Jill Biden's top aide, Anthony Bernal, and new Deputy Chief of Staff Annie Tomasini — low-profile but powerful aides who have worked mostly for the Bidens since 2008 and are known for their focus on loyalty.
• When Tomasini was still head of Oval Office operations last year, she and Bernal surprised people by sitting in on interviews for Biden's campaign manager, a person involved in the process told Axios.
• A source familiar with the interviews told Axios: "This was not a surprise. Annie and Anthony are part of the senior advisers group, and every senior adviser was part of the interviews."

Zoom in: Despite a year head start, a larger campaign team and spending more than twice what Trump's team has spent on ads since early March, Biden's numbers against Trump have largely stayed the same the past few months, with the slight bump after Trump's conviction.

• During the ad campaigns and Trump's trial, however, Biden's average approval rating hit an all-time low on June 9 of 37.4%, with 56.7% disapproving, according to FiveThirtyEight. His current approval rate is 38.4%.

Longtime Democratic strategist Howard Wolfson, who worked for former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in the 2020 primary against Biden, told Axios: "If the election were today, we would lose. Can that change? Yes. Is it on the path to do so? I don't see that yet."

• "The stakes for the debate" on June 27 between Biden and Trump "are sky high," he said.
• Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz responded: "Everything this campaign is doing is for the election in November."
• He added: "Winning campaigns focus on voters, not the chattering class. We are heads down, doing the work we need to do to win again this November."

Reality check: The angst among many Democrats is about the larger narrative Biden's team is telling rather than its tactics, as it's poured money into field programs and zeroed in on key voters.

• Democrats close to the campaign told Axios that morale and management have largely improved since Jen O'Malley Dillon left the White House and joined the campaign earlier this year.
• Donilon frequently talks about democracy, but the campaign's most-run TV ad so far is about Obamacare, according to an analysis by NPR and AdImpact.
• And polls do show there are many voters concerned about democracy after Trump tried to overturn the results of the last election.

The intrigue: Biden aides worry that they didn't take full advantage of the head start they had in 2023.

• Biden's inner circle often makes decisions by committee. That slowed down the campaign's decision-making, people familiar with the dynamic told Axios.
• There also has been internal second-guessing over the team spending $25 million-plus on an ad buy last fall that didn't move Biden's numbers.

Zoom out: Many Democrats think the president and his closest aides learned the wrong lessons from Democratic wins in 2020 and 2022, and it's causing them to misread 2024.

• Biden's core team, including Donilon, believes Biden won in 2020 because his "soul of the nation" message resonated and he presented a clear "moral contrast" to Trump.
• In 2020, Donilon wanted to focus on Trump's character over the economy, even though "our own pollsters told us that talking about 'the soul of the nation' was nutty," he told the New Yorker.

Biden's closest aides also argue that framing Republicans as "ultra MAGA" — along with Biden's speeches about democracy, which were mocked by some Democrats at the time — helped prevent a predicted "red wave" in 2022.

• Biden and his close team have defied their doubters in the 2020 primary, the 2020 general election and the 2022 primaries. That's led them to be defiant toward those voices this time.

But many Democrats — including some in the administration — say the Biden team's view of itself is distorted:

• Biden won the 2020 Democratic primary largely because the party consolidated to stop Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and picked the candidate who polls showed as the most competitive.
• Even with a once-in-a-century pandemic, Biden barely beat Trump by less than 45,000 votes across three states. "Biden didn't win, Trump lost," one Democrat close to the White House put it.

One Democratic operative who worked on several close races in the midterms told Axios: "2022 was a classic case of running away from a president, and their takeaway was, 'Wow people really like us.' "

• "... I get why they spun it that way, but I also think many of them believe it."

[redgolum]

It is the same with the neo right in the EU.

Democracy is defined as progressive polices. Open borders and such.

To deny entry is to be anti democratic.

[Flaming Conservative]

I keep hearing, “Joe Biden has done great things!”, but I’ve yet to hear anyone explain what those things are.

[Who is John Galt?]

[Zathras]

Now we know the name of the primary hatchet man for Biden.
Mike Donilon
Now we need to find out his power connections.
Connections to Blackrock investment!
Boston Catholic Church connections.

[Owen]

The Mike Donilon person is 66 yrs old.

These old party functionaries are living in the past in which Independents were not 47% of the electorate as they are now.

The rejection of elitism extends to both of the fringe 27% parties. These old guys are trying to appeal to an electorate that no longer exists.

[alancarp]

My suspicion is that the Biden team would only be swayed to a different path by one thing: the opinions of their big donors.

If fund-raising were to suddenly dry up, they’d have to ask why, and might finally recognize that their emperor has no clothes... failing that, I’m perfectly happy with the whole lot continuing to operate under the delusions they obviously have been cultivating.

[TalBlack]

They had to cheat to get Biden in and they’re going to have to cheat even harder to get him Re elected. Period.

[Liz]

Biden’s “strategy” is obvious. It’s so he can say in November (after the Steal):

“Despite all the losing polls and my own people doubting me, I won with 100 million votes.”

[GOPJ]

The thing about democrat voter fraud that I hate the most is that it’s traditionally done in the black community with the full knowledge of white activists.

Considering the risks early civil rights workers took to protect the right to vote for black citizens the fact democrats are ‘stealing’ their votes again is disgusting.

[cgbg]

Great quote from the Science Fiction TV show Expanse:

“What good is a revolution if you can’t get rich from it?”

That is the Democratic Party philosophy in a nutshell.

They steal everything everywhere—votes, money whatever.

Anyone who objects is a “conspiracy theorist”, a “hater” and an “extremist who is a danger to democracy”.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

They NEVER explain this “democracy” gambit or why Trump threatens it. They just keep banging that drum.

Most telling of all, they never explain:
1. Why they have forsaken Americans for illegal invaders
2. Why they support the insane ultra-minority position on trannies
3. Why they support demolishing women’s sports
4. Why killing fossil fuels is good for us and, if FF are SO evil, then why do they drain the SPR in every election.
5. Why it is good to have Democrat pro-crime policies making cities unlivable
6. Why they ignore their Constitutional duty to protect the country and allow ten million illegals in, many being hard-core terrorists from all over the world and the rest being diseased illiterates that will not assimilate
7. What gives Biden the power to unilaterally forgive millions in student debt
8. Many more etc, etc, etc

They simply will NOT run on their record. It’s nothing but “Trump will kill democracy” (without ever providing any evidence for it) and “Trump is a felon” (because the Dem lawfare ginned that up out of whole cloth).

[FamiliarFace]

*** 1. Why they have forsaken Americans for illegal invaders***

This reminds me, I think that there will be a terrorist attack the day after the winner of the presidential election is announced. Maybe Nov. 6, but maybe the 7th or 8th depending on how long it takes to “count” the votes. It won’t matter who wins.

If Jimmy Carter, I mean Joe Biden, “wins”, the terrorists will be there to show that can rough shod over him. If Trump actually wins, the terrorists will try to undermine him.

We know the terrorists are here already, waiting for the right moment.

If they do it before the election, Trump wins no matter how much they cheat. So I think they hold off until the election happens.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

It sounds like abortion has disappeared from their strategy.

I think abortion will be back, probably with talking points from the E. Jean Carroll case. I don't find those convincing, but Dems will try to push their buttons.

[eartick]

Democracy? We republicans need to vote to save the Republic.

[Vaduz]

True Biden dream land indeed