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These theories are way too complicated. China remains a fairly poor country. People talk about China’s slave wages but are somehow surprised when Chinese migrants flood across the Rio Grande. The fact is Chinese wages are fairly close to Mexico’s, Brazil’s, Argentina’s and Russia’s, all of which contribute significant numbers of illegal aliens.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Why the surge now and not previously? Because Biden is letting millions of border crossers in, so long as they make it to the border. Why not a simple flight to JFK or LAX? Because without a hard to get visa, you can’t even get on the plane. The airline gets fined for passengers without valid visas, so they check and bounce anyone lacking. Thanks to Joe Biden, if you make it across the Rio Grande, visa or not, you’re in. South Africans, Indians, Russians - it’s like the second coming of Ellis Island, minus the color bar.

https://newlinesmag.com/first-person/escaping-russia-for-the-united-states-via-mexico/
[Estimates of the number of people fleeing Russia since the launch of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine vary widely, from hundreds of thousands to several million. More clearly known is that some have made for Central Asia, or Georgia and Armenia, where lax visa systems have provided temporary reprieve for Russians to apply for residency within the European Union.

Others have traveled much farther. In 2022, more than 23,000 Russian nationals attempted to enter the United States via the southern border with Mexico, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, representing a fourfold increase on the year preceding the war. Russians seeking refuge along the Mexico route use channels on the Telegram messaging app to locate Russian- and Uzbek-speaking smuggling networks operating in Turkey and Central America, who facilitate their moves, according to international nongovernmental organizations. In 2020, there were only 467 cases of Russians trying to cross into the U.S.

Having initially suspended deportations to Russia in the wake of the invasion, President Joe Biden’s administration quietly resumed its former position in March, around the same time that the number of Russian entries reached a record high of 30,500. The Russian influx has contributed to the growing number of different nationalities seeking refuge in the U.S. — which, despite various border crossing restrictions, peaked last year.]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/rise-undocumented-indian-immigrants-crossing-us-borders-foot-rcna123874

If this NY Times profile is typical, many are blue collar migrants working blue collar jobs stateside:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/06/nyregion/chinese-immigrants-new-york-city.html

Ultimately, the attractive nuisance at work here is a reluctance to deport illegal aliens, a reluctance that Biden has extended to murderers and rapists. People are selling their homes and other possessions, betting it all on showing up and staying put forever.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/us/us-immigration-asylum-border.html
[Some six million Venezuelans have fled their troubled country, the largest population displacement in Latin America’s modern history. Migrants from Africa, Asia and South America are mortgaging their family land, selling their cars or borrowing money from loan sharks to embark on long, often treacherous journeys to reach the United States.

In December alone, more than 300,000 people crossed the southern border, a record number.

It is not just because they believe they will be able to make it across the 2,000 mile southern frontier. They are also certain that once they make it to the United States they will be able to stay.

Forever.

And by and large, they are not wrong.

The United States is trying to run an immigration system with a fraction of the judges, asylum officers, interpreters and other personnel that it needs to handle the hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing the border and flocking to cities around the country each year. That dysfunction has made it impossible for the nation to expeditiously decide who can remain in the country and who should be sent back to their homeland.

“I don’t know anyone who has been deported,” Carolina Ortiz, a migrant from Colombia, said in an interview in late December at an encampment outside Jacumba Hot Springs, about 60 miles southeast of San Diego and a stone’s throw from the hulking rust-colored barrier that separates the United States from Mexico.

For most migrants, the United States still represents the land of opportunity. Many come seeking work, and they are going to do whatever it takes to work, even if that means filing a weak asylum claim, several lawyers said.]

This kind of logjam is why we don’t let people without visas enter the country at airports. But Biden has lawlessly opened the border with Mexico. My guess is his people have legally crossed their t’s and dotted their i’s, so there’s nothing Trump can realistically do to him after taking office. But Trump can definitely deport hordes of illegals. Whether he does so remains to be seen. At minimum, he can shut the borders, turn off the spigot. Merely ending the uncontrolled influx would be an improvement over a second Biden term.