I’m going to be a contrarian and say that Joe Biden will keep his word and will NOT pardon Hunter.
Joe will just commute Hunter’s sentence instead...
Hunter will get probation. Joe’s last act will be to pardon Hunter. Joe’s not going to last much longer, so he’s not going to worry about his good name or his legacy (if he ever did). The media and historians will call the pardon the deathbed act of a devoted father, and (if they are really keeping count of Joe’s broken promises) it will be forgiven.
Eggs Ackley